Two word: Apple Pippin.

They can buy Sega

Somebody has to...

I think that the PS4 can easily do better than the PS3 if it is reasonably priced -- and Sony's suicidal impulses aren't quite strong enough for another $600 console.

I love your predictions! I made a similar prediction for the current consoles (somewhat rosier for the Wii) in the beginning of September.

TheSource:
Market - 225m
Wii - 128m (56.9%)
PS3 - 52m (23.1%)
360 - 45m (20.0%)

Me (4 Sep 07, VGC6477)
Market - 200-250m [225m]
Wii - 60-70% (120-175m) [146.25m]
PS3 - 15-25% (30-62.5m) [45m]
360 - 15-20% (30-50m) [39.4m]

IF Apple enters the console war, they couldn't just release the iGame and hope it sells. Apple is NOT a proven brand in gaming. Any portable system they release will probably be marketed as an iPod with more gaming capabilities. I also don't see anyone beyond the people already supporting iPod games (a few big companies and some indies), meaning that they just won't have enough support to succeed at all. They would need to buy out some big companies in the industry (Sega probably).

Nintendomination grew up =))

An Apple/Nintendo head-to-head in the gaming market, or any other market, would be epic. Imagine if TWO first party companies were making yearly unveilings the magnitude of Nintendogs, Brain Age, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc.

Unlike Google and Microsoft, however, Apple and Nintendo are not obsessed with posturing for some future face-off. They both aim to create all-new categories and so remain immune from competition and independant from third parties--and are currently doing so repeatedly. If Apple entered the games business, it would likely be with the focus on innovative hardware/software integration that is already the cornerstone of both companies.

And so competition would come from the two companies racing to get new ideas out first, not simply burning through piles of money with a useless game of one-up-manship with no plan to realize the true goal of growth. You might have Nintendo making a motion-controlled motor skills trainer/game for babies and toddlers (with advanced levels for mom and pop), while Apple "counters" with a touch tablet controller that recognizes swipes, stylus, or keyboard functions for PC-trumping content-creation and community features.

I don't know who would "win," but that type of competition would be much more interesting than a race for exclusive FPS's or sports games marketshare.

i think apple will enter the gaming market but i don't think they will make a major push like nintendo/microsoft/sony is. i.e. they won't be releasing a device strictly for the purpose of gaming. what they'll try to do is add gaming to their current products, itouch/iphone. the gaming done on it will be mostly casual and certainly not push the limits of gaming as much as nintendo/sony does but it would probably be a pretty good success none-the-less.

the biggest problem with apple enter the market is the fact the hardcore Apple guys for the most part are not gamers at all. Microsoft always has had an in road with gamers, so it was not too much of a stretch. I think it would suit apple best to start as a 3rd party Dev, build some AAA IP's and then make a handheld or Console once they have a solid 1st Party following.

I honestly feel that Apple is a fad. Most of the people I know who want one want one because it is "cool" and sharp looking.

How about getting games for your damn Macs first?

First of all, great post from TheSource. Obviously it's all speculation, but what a read!

I could see Apple trying their hand at a handheld device, since their iPhone is already approaching many of those functions. I'm much less convinced that they would put out a console anytime soon. It's pretty doubtful that the console market is strong enough to support even the current three competitors (ever since Microsoft entered, someone has consistently lost VERY large sums of money. Actually, someone was taking huge losses even in the 5th generation with three competitors, Sega.) It's virtually certain that the market can't support four profitable competitors - to say nothing of what effect that would have on third party developers. Still, crazier things have happened. It seems like pretty much every electronics company has tried to make a console at some point, almost all of which were dismal failures.

Another point bears mentioning. Some are posting here that it's "impossible" for Apple to enter the market because Apple is not a proven brand in gaming. I know this may be difficult to believe, but before 1994 Sony had essentially no history in gaming either. In the early 1990s, there was no such thing as a Sony fanboy, if you can believe it. Sony delivered the games, and the fans followed. If anything, it would be easier for Apple, since the company already has a rabid Mac fanbase.

Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen.