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Forums - Sales - Global HW 10th May up! US/UK Software up.

snackboxes on 15 May 2014

Borderlands 2 Vita was only bundled with Vita slim for May 6th release and standalone version was not out till May 13th. Shouldn't Vita sales be somewhere near the Borderlands 2 number as well?



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VXIII on 15 May 2014

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.



Burek on 15 May 2014
VXIII said:

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.


So what you're saying is, in this case of BL2, that it might have sold 2K, 42K, any number in between, or any number over 42K ad infinitum and we will not know it in any case??



kitler53 on 15 May 2014
Kresnik said:
Actually cannot believe how lazy VGC have been with the numbers this week. Really, really disappointing.

So Borderlands 2 sold 40k in the USA this week. Seems plausible. Not too big, not too small.

And Vita sold 2k in the USA this week. Less plausible, but capable of being possible.

Except, the two things cannot exist together, since the only way to get a copy of Borderlands 2 for the week ending the 10th is through the bundle. So either Borderlands 2 sold < 2k (probably closer to 1k counting the fact that OLED models will still be sold) or Vita sold > 40k (greater due to the fact that OLED models will still be sold).

Bloody stupid that nobody took 10 seconds to cross check the release date of the bundle vs. the standalone SKU. Just goes to show that stuff simply gets run through algorithms without any regard for plausibility (or even any regard for possibility, since these numbers are literally impossible).

Aside from that, we're given good old chart-track numbers every week which show UK chart placement. God of War Collection at #40. Not including in VGC's top 75 for the UK. Gee, that sounds about right.

/JerrySeinfelddonegif


this is what happens when you're estimates are based on "historical trends" and not data.  if ioi was using any real sales data as input to his models these kinds of mistakes wouldn't exist.



kitler53 on 15 May 2014
Burek said:
VXIII said:

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.


So what you're saying is, in this case of BL2, that it might have sold 2K, 42K, any number in between, or any number over 42K ad infinitum and we will not know it in any case??


what he's saying is we have 80% confidence that is sold between 5k and 80k.   90% confidence it sold between -75k and 160k.  and 100% confidence it sold between -350k and 500k.



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Kresnik on 15 May 2014
VXIII said:

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.


What's the deal with not tracking certain releases despite them showing up in various official charts? 



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sales2099 on 15 May 2014
Barenziah said:

how is the PS4 winning another week bad,117k will do me,

i'll have to remember the fanboy reaction when the XBOX does these numbers

Context is key. Not being 150k + and declining like the rest shows PS4 mania is over. Still the best selling console, but the demand has finally caught up with supply.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

VXIII on 15 May 2014
Burek said:
VXIII said:

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.


So what you're saying is, in this case of BL2, that it might have sold 2K, 42K, any number in between, or any number over 42K ad infinitum and we will not know it in any case??

Yes, VG just make an educated guess for this kind of releases. Any "tricky" release date ,like in Borderlands 2 case, could cause a mess in that methodology. that's why we used to make sure that every release date is correct before the charts update. But now, we don't even have the tools to add or fix release dates. The owner have shift focus to Gamewise.co



VXIII on 15 May 2014
Kresnik said:
VXIII said:

I've worked at the DB before. I believe that VG numbers ,outside of relatively big software releases and hardware, are not based on any data. That's why a small mistake in the inputted release date causes false data to appear. their estimations are base on the genre of the game and past trend of the franchise for most games, no more.


What's the deal with not tracking certain releases despite them showing up in various official charts? 

To much work , perhaps?

Hate to break it for you, but VGchartz is clearly not a priority for the owner anymore, in case you haven't noticed yet.



Mummelmann on 15 May 2014
4k1x3r said:
Mummelmann said:
So, PS4's sales keep dropping, people still blaming shortages? Are they manufacturing only 500k per month?

Japan is atrocious, I dare anyone to still say that mobile gaming won't have any impact on traditional gaming.


We can give you an answer when NPD drops in a few hours, if you see what I mean.


NPD would have to show vgchartz being off consistently by a few hundred thousand per month for there to be any truth in persisting shortage excuses. I think the explanation is quite a bit simpler; the demand is lower than many expected. It's crashing in Japan, going far below even my conservative estimates (10-15k baseline after the launch period was over). NPD will very likely show that vgchartz has been off again, it will not show that PS4 has massive supply constraints, the numbers simply don't add up.