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Forums - Gaming - Nintendo Waving The White Flag On Wii U? Only Forecasting 3.6 mill Shipments

Dulfite said:
Personally, I think they are estimating a lower number than they think they will actually sell. They've had their projected number sold incorrect for the past 2-3 quarters (at least I believe) so they wanted to set a number that they KNOW FOR A FACT they won't sell less than. If the Wii U can't sell that much in the next year with the epic software they have coming this year then the gaming industry in general is in trouble because xb1 and ps4 have NOTHING on the Wii U 2014 lineup.


But there projecting a 30% increase YOY, so there not projecting low at all. They do think there will be an increase. 



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Seems they are being honest and realistic, u is what it is and no game or games will change that. They need to be honest and open and profit despite wiiU being what it is, not hoping and dreaming it becomes a success.

Good for them.



Dulfite said:
Personally, I think they are estimating a lower number than they think they will actually sell. They've had their projected number sold incorrect for the past 2-3 quarters (at least I believe) so they wanted to set a number that they KNOW FOR A FACT they won't sell less than. If the Wii U can't sell that much in the next year with the epic software they have coming this year then the gaming industry in general is in trouble because xb1 and ps4 have NOTHING on the Wii U 2014 lineup.

They've had their projected forecast for consoles wrong for the last 4/5 YEARS, not Q's.



 

Kind of puts their last projection of 9 million into perspective; that shows just how out of touch they currently are with the market as a whole, which is how they ended up creating and releasing the Wii U in its current form in the first place.
I still stand by my 18-25 million lifetime, but it's creeping very, very close to the lower side of that estimate now.
My suggestion in the UNITY thread of a new home console (in a different form though) in late 2016 might not be so crazy after all.



Mummelmann said:
Kind of puts their last projection of 9 million into perspective; that shows just how out of touch they currently are with the market as a whole, which is how they ended up creating and releasing the Wii U in its current form in the first place.
I still stand by my 18-25 million lifetime, but it's creeping very, very close to the lower side of that estimate now.
My suggestion in the UNITY thread of a new home console (in a different form though) in late 2016 might not be so crazy after all.

25m is a pipedream Mummel. I think the current range has to be 12 - 16m

2012/2013FY - 3.06m
2013/2014FY - 2.72m
2014/2015FY - 3.6m forecast (up over 30% yoy)
2015/2016FY - 2.00 - 3.00
2016/2017 - 1.5m and tappering off fast
2017/2018 - 500k and discontinued.

Puts it at an average of around 14m.

I also don't see them being up YOY without a price cut, but we'll see how MK performs soon.

Obviously WiiU isn't even sustaining last years levels, so not only does MK have to shift an extra 900k consoles but the extra that is falling behind. I just don't think it has it in it to do that.





 

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Seece said:
Mummelmann said:
Kind of puts their last projection of 9 million into perspective; that shows just how out of touch they currently are with the market as a whole, which is how they ended up creating and releasing the Wii U in its current form in the first place.
I still stand by my 18-25 million lifetime, but it's creeping very, very close to the lower side of that estimate now.
My suggestion in the UNITY thread of a new home console (in a different form though) in late 2016 might not be so crazy after all.

25m is a pipedream Mummel. I think the current range has to be 12 - 16m

2012/2013FY - 3.06m
2013/2014FY - 2.72m
2014/2015FY - 3.6m forecast (up over 30% yoy)
2015/2016FY - 2.00 - 3.00
2016/2017 - 1.5m and tappering off fast
2017/2018 - 500k and discontinued.

Puts it at an average of around 14m.

I also don't see them being up YOY without a price cut, but we'll see how MK performs soon.

Obviously WiiU isn't even sustaining last years levels, so not only does MK have to shift an extra 900k consoles but the extra that is falling behind. I just don't think it has it in it to do that.




25 is impossible, agreed, which is why I'm realizing that it's headed for the lower part of the estimate and I won't be shocked to see it fall below either. I still think they can have a fairly good holiday if they cut the price and get the timing right on Smash and some good bundles and they could manage a decent 2015. The question now is probably; will they bother trying? These revisions would point more towards no, but only time will show.

I'm not one for overestimating the Wii U, as should be clear from my time in the UNITY thread and, like I said; I won't be surprised if it falls under 18 million lifetime, continuing the downwards spiral from the NES to the Gamecube in frightening fashion.



Nintendo has just announced another big 3DS game, however, Wii U remains ignored. After MK8 there's not even a single game with a set released date. And I'm afraid some of the announced games might have been just that, announcements and nothing more (aka won't ever see the light)



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the gamepad was a good idea and does have such potential with certain type of games,platformers just isn't the type it seems



  

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Mummelmann said:
Seece said:
Mummelmann said:
Kind of puts their last projection of 9 million into perspective; that shows just how out of touch they currently are with the market as a whole, which is how they ended up creating and releasing the Wii U in its current form in the first place.
I still stand by my 18-25 million lifetime, but it's creeping very, very close to the lower side of that estimate now.
My suggestion in the UNITY thread of a new home console (in a different form though) in late 2016 might not be so crazy after all.

25m is a pipedream Mummel. I think the current range has to be 12 - 16m

2012/2013FY - 3.06m
2013/2014FY - 2.72m
2014/2015FY - 3.6m forecast (up over 30% yoy)
2015/2016FY - 2.00 - 3.00
2016/2017 - 1.5m and tappering off fast
2017/2018 - 500k and discontinued.

Puts it at an average of around 14m.

I also don't see them being up YOY without a price cut, but we'll see how MK performs soon.

Obviously WiiU isn't even sustaining last years levels, so not only does MK have to shift an extra 900k consoles but the extra that is falling behind. I just don't think it has it in it to do that.




25 is impossible, agreed, which is why I'm realizing that it's headed for the lower part of the estimate and I won't be shocked to see it fall below either. I still think they can have a fairly good holiday if they cut the price and get the timing right on Smash and some good bundles and they could manage a decent 2015. The question now is probably; will they bother trying? These revisions would point more towards no, but only time will show.

I'm not one for overestimating the Wii U, as should be clear from my time in the UNITY thread and, like I said; I won't be surprised if it falls under 18 million lifetime, continuing the downwards spiral from the NES to the Gamecube in frightening fashion.

You not see the news about them still losing money on WiiU? No way will we see a price cut this year, and even if we did it'd be $50 which IMo would do nothing. Needs to be $100+ to even make a splash.

So yeah, it all rides on Smash, which I don't think has any casual appeal at all. And what Nintendo fan is not going to have a WiiU with Pikmin, Zelda, MK, Donkey Kong ect ect on the system already???



 

Seece said:
Mummelmann said:


25 is impossible, agreed, which is why I'm realizing that it's headed for the lower part of the estimate and I won't be shocked to see it fall below either. I still think they can have a fairly good holiday if they cut the price and get the timing right on Smash and some good bundles and they could manage a decent 2015. The question now is probably; will they bother trying? These revisions would point more towards no, but only time will show.

I'm not one for overestimating the Wii U, as should be clear from my time in the UNITY thread and, like I said; I won't be surprised if it falls under 18 million lifetime, continuing the downwards spiral from the NES to the Gamecube in frightening fashion.

You not see the news about them still losing money on WiiU? No way will we see a price cut this year, and even if we did it'd be $50 which IMo would do nothing. Needs to be $100+ to even make a splash.

So yeah, it all rides on Smash, which I don't think has any casual appeal at all. And what Nintendo fan is not going to have a WiiU with Pikmin, Zelda, MK, Donkey Kong ect ect on the system already???


Still losing money? I figured they could possibly start breaking even on hardware sometime in mid 2014 (late Q2), but that was obviously wrong. One of the main problems is incorporating chipsets and parts that are being produced in very low volumes; they'll go down in price a lot slower due to low implementation rates, cost deflation slows to a crawl and you're left with no leverage for pricing strategy.

Smash is also releasing on 3DS, almost half a year before the Wii U, that was another brilliant decision. And almost all the Directs I've seen have had a very heavy emphasis on 3DS, with collection games or VC announcements taking up most of the Wii U's schedule. This is some mess they've gotten themselves into, I think they'll be hard pressed to reach 35 million sold by the end of 2014 at this rate... Perhaps they'll pick up the slack and sell 50 million next year, to meet the prophet's 60 million LTD estimates.