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Mummelmann on 07 May 2014
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Seece said:
Mummelmann said:
Kind of puts their last projection of 9 million into perspective; that shows just how out of touch they currently are with the market as a whole, which is how they ended up creating and releasing the Wii U in its current form in the first place.
I still stand by my 18-25 million lifetime, but it's creeping very, very close to the lower side of that estimate now.
My suggestion in the UNITY thread of a new home console (in a different form though) in late 2016 might not be so crazy after all.

25m is a pipedream Mummel. I think the current range has to be 12 - 16m

2012/2013FY - 3.06m
2013/2014FY - 2.72m
2014/2015FY - 3.6m forecast (up over 30% yoy)
2015/2016FY - 2.00 - 3.00
2016/2017 - 1.5m and tappering off fast
2017/2018 - 500k and discontinued.

Puts it at an average of around 14m.

I also don't see them being up YOY without a price cut, but we'll see how MK performs soon.

Obviously WiiU isn't even sustaining last years levels, so not only does MK have to shift an extra 900k consoles but the extra that is falling behind. I just don't think it has it in it to do that.


25 is impossible, agreed, which is why I'm realizing that it's headed for the lower part of the estimate and I won't be shocked to see it fall below either. I still think they can have a fairly good holiday if they cut the price and get the timing right on Smash and some good bundles and they could manage a decent 2015. The question now is probably; will they bother trying? These revisions would point more towards no, but only time will show.

I'm not one for overestimating the Wii U, as should be clear from my time in the UNITY thread and, like I said; I won't be surprised if it falls under 18 million lifetime, continuing the downwards spiral from the NES to the Gamecube in frightening fashion.