I don't think this is worth asking in its own thread but maybe we can talk about it a little in here.

When do you guys think the PS4 will get its first 10 million seller? And what will it be?

The usual suspects are of course Gran Turismo and GTA (I don't think Cod will sell 10 million on a single SKU again this gen), but do you think we'll get some new franchises to reach that height? I think UC 4 and TLOU 2 could both be candidates.

What I'd like to see the most of course would be a new IP that I personally enjoy (preferably first party) to come and take the world by storm and sell that well on a single platform, TLOU was actually the first time for me that a game I cared about was one of those really hot topics even among people I know in real life and it was kinda awesome.

So I'm still hoping that Sony is cooking up some huge new IP (that I can actually enjoy) to blow peoples minds with again, developed by someone else than ND though, I feel it would be good if another SCE studio aside from ND and PD would rise up to become a more stable source of income for Sony. Hey, who knows maybe Horizon will be that game.

the PS3 and PS4 version of CoD are at around 7 million now, and will be around 7.5 million at the end of the year, and will probably end around 10 million when all is said and done. i do think the franchise will continue to decline, and i do think next years CoD will be also cross gen. so by the time the entire fanbase moves to next gen i think the franchise would have declined to a point were 10 million on a single SKU wont be possible.

i actually think the first 10 million seller will be Red Dead Redemption 2. the last one was practically a new IP in status and sold 12.5m+. next one will be bigger, and with rockstars logo on it and their quality games, i think it can be a lot bigger.  

i also think UC4  has a fair chance, but not as big as RDR. i think the main problem with UC4 will be the install base, PS4 install base will be around ~30m when its released. so it wont have a big first week as it could have if it released on a 60-70 million install base for example. 

i think The Last of Us 2 could very well hit 10 million. first one is at atleast 9 million now, though that includes a bump from the released of the remaster which had its own marketing and double dipper pitch in. but none the less, the PS3 version sold 7 million within a year, which is massive. i feel it started to become a part of pop culture in a way, and if the second is just as good, it can become a bigger part of pop culture, if it does i think they got a really strong shot at 10 million. specially considering 2017 is the most likely the year it releases in. which would mean PS4's install base should be at at least ~70 million. 10 million certainly isnt easy, but i can see it happening.

i dont think GT7 will reach 10 million.  USA certainly doesnt care about racers as much as they used to do, and GT is in decline. Japan isnt as big as it used to be for consoles. i just dont see it.

horizon could be, small chance it will, but everything needs to be perfect. LOTS of content, big world, awesome visuals, gameplay, story and a solid marketing with lots of hype. it needs to be on skyrim level of RPG's without the bugs. and even then its still a long shot. i do hope its a big success, like at least 4 million, and hopefully around 5-7 million. it would be great if that happened and GG became one of those devs that can make a huge franchise. 

Red Dead Redemption is obviously another candidate, though that depends on that game even existing of course.

I believe that UC4 will sell for quite a while, Uncharted games have had good legs in the past, so I don't think the installbase at release will be a problem, but realistically I'm expecting it to end up at about 8.5 million at the moment.

Gran Turismo is kind of hard to tell imo, I don't think GT6 should be taken as an indicator for what a fullfledged PS4 GT could do though, it released at a really stupid time, GT 7 should sell a lot better and will also be bundled more.

As for Horizon, that's more like a pipedream at the moment, I mean we hardly know anything about it anyway, but I'd definitely find it cool (and also necessary for Sony) if Sony could get a couple new really big franchises this gen to strengthen their first party studios even more, after all it can't always be ND or PD that make up for the money lost on less successful first party or Sony funded games

RDR2 does exist!! BELIEVE!! (no way it doesnt, the last game sold shitloads!! it must exist! i need it too!!)

im certain UC4 will have some serious legs, as all uncharted games have proved to have. however legs can be effected by second hand sales, and thats why i think a big install base is important, as it means possibily a much bigger first week, thus lower second hand sales

i dont think GT6 is a clear indicator of the gran turismo sales potential, but racing games in general are declining in sales, and i dont think GT7 will be an exeption to that.

as i said, horizon would need everything to be perfect for that to happen, and still most likely wont. but its been 3+ years in development, and it isnt even announced yet, shinobi said its not a 2015 game either. so if its a Q1 2016 game then it will have a 4.5 dev time at minimun. thats around GTA and elder scrolls dev time. so its a pretty ambitious project to say the least. 

i agree, Sony should have more "mega franchises" and not depend on GT and naughty dog. i think they are hoping that The Order 1886 will be that, but they fucked up the marketing for that pretty good far lol. it can still sell pretty good, but i doubt it will reach the 5 million or more sales. but they have a lot in the works. Sony bend game which has been 3+ years in dev. Media molecules new IP which has been in dev for 3.5+ years in dev. Quantic Dreams PS4 project which has been in the works for 2.5 years now. 

Lol, yeah the Orders marketing has been largely terrible up to this point, though it has been getting better with the Police Station teaser and Silent Night trailer, the game still has a lot of potential imo, but Sony and RAD managed to destroy so much hype for it in the last 6 months.

yeah its marketing left me in a big wtf? mood. i mean they seriously screwed up big time. they did really good with TLoU marketing and to a lesser extent infamous marketing. but The Order 1886 marketing has been outright bad with the exception of PSX and VGA this year. i guess if it turns out to be a really good and long game (12 hours minimum) then it can generate some positive buzz around launch. 

Sonys marketing can be really hit and miss, LBP 3 was another title that was basically send out with no marketing at all. But at the moment The Order really takes the cake... that first gameplay reveal via twitch for example, what was that? Or why have they still not released a video of the PSX demo on Youtube? And with them saying that there are plenty of open areas in the game and with people complaing about all the demos until now being all cramped up and linear, why haven't they demoed a more open area yet? So many things that make me scratch my head... all the cinematic trailers have been good though.

At this point the game will have to be really good to regain the attention of many people.