By this time next year?  It will sell 3.5 million way before then.

What competition did the Wii offer to Mario Karts if you wanted a competitive, social (easy to pick up) game? The majority of people didn't buy MK because it was MK but because it simply had no competition and therefore was the best choice. Otherwise how can you explain the sales of MK on the GC? Same goes for SB on the GC. Nintendo has a dedicated following, but that following is not growing so 1st party titles will have a high uptake but the games will not boost sales of the console for any extended period of time. 

How do I explain what... that they sold well? Considering the dynamics behind the Wii Sales, yes, you need to explain what demographics are involved.

A game can't get past 2 million on a system without broad base average appeal. According to who? I'm guessing that figure is completely arbitrary?

As for effecting how the system sold,  I'd guess though many casual average people bought the gamecube specifically for those games. What basis are you using for that guess?

Gamecube launched strong.  Well stronger then it's sales deserved.  

It's a big reason why Nintendo decided to hold back those games when the Wii Launched... because those games DO move the needle with the average audience. Define the "average" audience, and why so far no game has succeeded in moving the WiiU, more so when we compare 2D Mario on Wii to WiiU.

As for like super extender permanent software increases.  A signle game never sustains console sales long term by itself.   It takes a marathon of software.  The WiiU has plenty of games out so far, so why would this one suddenly tip everything?

Games like Call of Duty have yearly releases.  Had they not, i imagine you'd see an identical effect.

Wii didnt have other competitive, social (easy to pick up) games? 

Wii Sports, Wii Party, Wii Play, Mario Party, New Super Mario Bros Wii, Super Smash Bros Brawl, Mario & Sonic Olympics, Just Dance, Guitar Hero, all these games fit the description u gave.

With that said I agree that games like Mario Kart & Smash Bros wont change Wii U's fortunes by any drastic measure, of course they will sell well to current and future Wii U owners but wont cause sales to skyrocket outside of possibly a few weeks at launch.

Blending genres makes no sense. I'm not going to compare Forza to CoD because both have online multiplayer. Racing is a simple concept everyone understands. What karting competition did MK have? Completely agree though that the games will sell very well to existing WiiU owners, just as SB did on GC.

the post i quoted said "competitive, social (easy to pick up) games", u didnt specifically say racing. But anywho according to vgchartz there were 101 racing games on Wii with combined sales of over 57 million. Mario Kart sold well over half that amount, that game alone vastly oustold the other 100 racing games on Wii. U cant say Mario Kart didnt have competition just because it absolutely dominated.

Let's not avoid details - how many of those racers were shovelware? It didn't have competition. If you wanted an easy to pick up, social game, MK was one of the first to get on the list. Anyway, this argument is moot as MK will not have any lasting effect on sales and the game sales will mostly go to already existing customers rather than new ones. So with that being said, as MK won't save the WiiU, nor will SB, can we really see Nintendo supporting this console till 2017?

All I need to pick up on is that if they are good games, then why has the GC and WiiU done so badly?

How many quality racing games are there on the Wii? Anything like Forza etc? No. Grid? No. Only a single karting game among a pile of shovelware. You can try to claim "omg dey be soooo good games" but that doesnt explain the shitty sales for the N64, GC and WiiU. Fact is Mario Kart remains vastly unchanged for two decades and karting games on other consoles have bombed. The problem is you need to admit that two audiences bought the wii - the hardcore Nintendo fans and a bunch of flittering casual gamers, the latter being the vast bulk of Wii purchasers. Do you accept that? Do you accept that casual gamers don't care about Nintendo and just go with whatever is in?

You keep going off on tangents. We're talking about high-selling games (not) having broad appeal (and how it somehow only applies to Nintendo).

There  were of plenty of NFS titles on the Wii, but more importantly kart-racers which directly compete with Mario Kart, which contradicts your argument that there was no competition. Sonic Racing sold very well, and was a quality title. Also, ExciteTruck didn't exactly set any sales records, it's a casual racing Nintendo title, why weren't all the Nintendo fans buying that in droves?

Your argument seems now to be, that casuals bought Mario Kart Wii, but this would completely contradict your previous argument, as this implies that the game has broad appeal.