6.17 vs. 5.97 vgc at the end of March: 200K difference.

5.86 vs. 5.36 vgc at the end of December: 500K difference.

NDP January - March: 201K

Media Create January - March: 164304

I found no European numbers, but they should be over 100K

NPD + Media Create is higher than the world wide shipments. They sold the units that were on the shelves in late 2013.

Why should Europe be over 100k when Nintendo actually had to remove stock not too long ago there? Also, you don't think 500k on shelves is suspiciously low?

Even if we take bast case scenario and ad 150k for Europe (it's not even that) it would still be Overtracked by 100k

I would say VG have got this spot on, Ninty had shipped 6.17m by March 31st and we also have the whole of April to factor in. That would put Wii U just shy of 6.1 m sold, as i can imagine retailers that sell it only getting the bare minimum stock.

It's 144K at vgc, so 100K should be realistic. But maybe only 50K or less shipped. There are still some Nintendo Land bundles in stores here in Germany.

I think 500K on shelves is a little too high. I'm not sure about other countries, but it was hard to find Mario + Wind Waker bundles at the end of December 2013. Only some Nintendo Land and LEGO City bundles. And only a few units, even in the biggest stores with hundreds of 360, PS3 and X1 consoles (0 PS4).

Or do you mean that the 200K difference in March is too low? Yes, maybe.

VGC has a 200k shipped/sold gap worldwide as of March 29th.  Extrapolate out to the 31st and you'd get about 190k.

There was a 116k gap for Japanese sales as of March 30th.  It is very unlikely that Japan makes up 58-61% of the stock on shelves worldwide.  If its stock was relative to its portion of worldwide sales, we'd be looking at 395k units on shelves, or 5.775m sold as of March 31st.  It is likely somewhat higher since I'd imagine the stock situation in Europe is pretty dry, but it is certainly overtracked.