Forums - Gaming Discussion - Ethomaz's Dismantling the Myths: Amazon.com's Best Sellers is Not Accurate to the Predict Overall Hardware Sales in US (Checking: Accuracy with Software)

ethomaz said:
J_Allard said:
You could also go into a Gamestop and ask a GS clerk over the last few months which console sold more and most would probably tell you PS4, since it has won the recent NPD's. Does that make random Gamestop clerk an official reliable source? No. With a sample size this small and irrelevant (PS4 would have sold more regardless of where it was on Amazon) the results will be skewed. Thankfully someone else took the time to expose this for you.

I welcome you to challenge your own myth that MLB The Show was a "huge system seller" on PS3 next, please.

The Show is May on PS4... not April.

Uh, you told me The Show IS a big system seller, which is current tense and past tense. I can see you clinging to next gen Show sales where they will be higher than normal thanks to early adopters needing something to play, but that won't erase the years and years and years of data we have on MLB The Show for PS3.

Your moving of the goal posts is mighty cute though, I wish you luck.



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J_Allard said:

Uh, you told me The Show IS a big system seller, which is current tense and past tense. I can see you clinging to next gen Show sales where they will be higher than normal thanks to early adopters needing something to play, but that won't erase the years and years and years of data we have on MLB The Show for PS3.

Your moving of the goal posts is mighty cute though, I wish you luck.

MLB The Show have a good fan base on PS3... a lot of guys bought it just for this game... system seller.

Same will happen with PS4.

Already said that to you so created a thread about.



We don't know the exact way they calculate the numbers, and what the difference is between hourly and monthly for example.

Most likely the current hour/month's sales are weighted high, and past hours/months sales weighted progressively lower. This means short term fluctuations can affect the rank significantly, and make it not represent the average sales, but if it consistently stays in a range for a long enough time then the rank should reflect the average sales.

If the monthly ranks feature data from past months, not only from the current month, then it's not 100% representative of who won the month on Amazon, and therefore of NPD. Again, if it stays in a consistent range month-to-month then it should be representative, but if there is fluctuation in a month then it may not.

Still the Amazon ranks have a fairly high rate of prediction. I don't think we should dismiss them as a data point just because once in a while it's not indicative. VGC is often not predicting on target either.



My 8th gen collection

ethomaz said:

Kasz216 said:

.It's also noteable that this is a time where NPD actually gave numbers for Hardware and software officially

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_November_2009

 

So you can't realy hide the software numbers as accurate by using the groupings.

For example, on Amazon Super Mario Brothers Wii >   COD 360

Despite NPD Having 360 outselling NSMB Wii by more then double.

 

Also, Wii being above it... etc.

 

Clearly Amazon moved a LOT less COD (Both kinds) then other retail stores.

 

In that list the software isn't remotely in order.

Just a question... it is the launch for CoD:MW2? It is... so look at the October ranking.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2009-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

Voilá... I know MW2 was to be here in October before the launch... and it is #1.

NPD shows everything (including sold by preorders in previous month) in the launch month... Amazon shows the preorder in the month it was made.

I already explained that... launch months you need to account previous preorders to compare with NPD like PS4 in November 2013.

Another example that supports my OP.

The 360 outselling the Mario... same... you have the Limited 360 Modern Warfare 2 bundle in September and October ranking that NPD just counted in November.

Wii above it? Same here... you need to look at the preorder sales in previous months to see that MW2 outsold everything in November.

So what we have for MW2?

August: #37 (preorder for November)
September: #20 (preorder for November)
October:  #1 (preorder for November)
November: #4 (sales in November)

I was tracking Amazon for so much time before make this thread to knows it works I use this example for the OP.


Except that STILL doesn't work.  when you look at the full game list.

Borderlands isn't on the charts for any preorders, yet it's well below where it should be.

 

and it still doesn't work with the consoles.



And now do the same with all the stuff which doesn't represent reality. I mean, you do it only with the stuff where it works but you could do the exact same thing to "prove" that Amazon charts don't work to represent the real situation.

The chance that something which is in front on Amazon is also in front at NPD is pretty obvious. You could do it even in a small store which sells 10 consoles a month and your average chance would be higher to get the real result since every single retailer is one part of the whole market. 

As wider the gap between two consoles in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon will represent the same result and as closer they are in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon charts won't represent the real result.

But I can't really take you serious when you say your "bububut" in so many posts. I think you got that from M.U.G.E.N who did the same all the time.



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good analysis. tagged.



crissindahouse said:

And now do the same with all the stuff which doesn't represent reality. I mean, you do it only with the stuff where it works but you could do the exact same thing to "prove" that Amazon charts don't work to represent the real situation.

The chance that something which is in front on Amazon is also in front at NPD is pretty obvious. You could do it even in a small store which sells 10 consoles a month and your average chance would be higher to get the real result since every single retailer is one part of the whole market.

As wider the gap between two consoles in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon will represent the same result and as closer they are in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon charts won't represent the real result.

But I can't really take you serious when you say your "bububut" in so many posts. I think you got that from M.U.G.E.N who did the same all the time.

Show me one stuff that didn't work... you you see how hard is to find one.



tagged: we will see if npd april further prove this or not



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

Seems like the data fits too closely to be an entire coincidence. Even the detractors have had to look at quite a few years of data to try to prove inaccurate instances. I can't wait until April NPD to see if it continues to follow such a trend. Thanks for bringing this to our attention. I would imagine that people on a sales site would be pleased with other reliable ways of estimating demand for the products we all love to talk about.



At this point it is like beating a dead horse.

If for the rest of the year, Amazon monthly Sales Top 100 order is spot on, even if it is wrong one month, that is a lot more accurate then what VCG has been so far this year.

For those that do not want to follow it, don't. I am sure that the first time that Amazon is off within the next year, you will bring it to everyone's attention.