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Forums - Sales Discussion - BOLD & DARING Prediction XO will never go below 60k WW any week this year

 

The prediction will come true

yes 35 24.14%
 
no 92 63.45%
 
not sure 15 10.34%
 
Total:142
TheGoldenBoy on 20 April 2014
binary solo said:
Hard to know what the new pricing and the tendancy to bundle a AAA title without any extra cost will do. But in general the summer low is at least 10% lower than the lowest weeks of the mid Jan-April period. So if that does hold then 64K being Xb one's lowest Q1 weeks means a ~58K week for Xb one. However if there is an official $399 worldwide price cut at E3 then the summer doldrums may remain above 60K.

73/30 that it will go below 60K IMO.

But OMG! This is the sort of sales prediction thread Xb fans are having to settle for? Gosh at least do some "Number of weeks in 2014 prior to Black Friday Xb one will be over 100K." It's not exactly positive but it's less negative that wondering how dismally low the sales can go.

Shouldn't it be "70/30"?



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kirby007 on 20 April 2014
binary solo said:
Hard to know what the new pricing and the tendancy to bundle a AAA title without any extra cost will do. But in general the summer low is at least 10% lower than the lowest weeks of the mid Jan-April period. So if that does hold then 64K being Xb one's lowest Q1 weeks means a ~58K week for Xb one. However if there is an official $399 worldwide price cut at E3 then the summer doldrums may remain above 60K.

73/30 that it will go below 60K IMO.

But OMG! This is the sort of sales prediction thread Xb fans are having to settle for? Gosh at least do some "Number of weeks in 2014 prior to Black Friday Xb one will be over 100K." It's not exactly positive but it's less negative that wondering how dismally low the sales can go.

the week they launch in T2 countries and the week following that



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Uabit on 20 April 2014

For the tittle i thought you were toastboy so you clearly did something wrong



Lafiel on 20 April 2014

This just emphasizes for me again that non-holiday weekly sales this gen seem really low, as for PS3 (the at that time 3rd placed console) these kind of predictions were made for 100k or 200k (granted that one was for september to years end right after the 1st slim release/price cut) weekly ww. Hopefully all consoles can pick up in sales with more software.



binary solo on 20 April 2014
TheGoldenBoy said:
binary solo said:
Hard to know what the new pricing and the tendancy to bundle a AAA title without any extra cost will do. But in general the summer low is at least 10% lower than the lowest weeks of the mid Jan-April period. So if that does hold then 64K being Xb one's lowest Q1 weeks means a ~58K week for Xb one. However if there is an official $399 worldwide price cut at E3 then the summer doldrums may remain above 60K.

73/30 that it will go below 60K IMO.

But OMG! This is the sort of sales prediction thread Xb fans are having to settle for? Gosh at least do some "Number of weeks in 2014 prior to Black Friday Xb one will be over 100K." It's not exactly positive but it's less negative that wondering how dismally low the sales can go.

Shouldn't it be "70/30"?

No, it just means I am more than 100% certain that Xb one will either sell more than or less than 60K on any given week for the remainder of the year. That is to say there is a -3% chance that it will sell exactly 60K in a given week.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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kirby007 on 20 April 2014
Lafiel said:

This just emphasizes for me again that non-holiday weekly sales this gen seem really low, as for PS3 (the at that time 3rd placed console) these kind of predictions were made for 100k or 200k (granted that one was for september to years end right after the 1st slim release/price cut) weekly ww. Hopefully all consoles can pick up in sales with more software.

the ds used to sell like +-300k a week 05/06/07 in the slow weeks, seeing that now makes it more impressive



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 27 April 2014

Prcecut effects haven't been showing in NPD numbers, i'm suspecting vgc has the trend right.



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

DerNebel on 27 April 2014
kirby007 said:
Prcecut effects haven't been showing in NPD numbers, i'm suspecting vgc has the trend right.

I personally highly doubt that, US sales are supposedly very slow across the board this April.

OT: I think that weekly X1 numbers are about 20k lower than what vgchartz is showing right now and I'm pretty sure it'll go even lower in the summer months, I'd say it'll definitely dip below 60k sometime in July, maybe earlier.



thismeintiel on 27 April 2014

Once NPD releases April figures, and VGC adjusts its numbers to be in line with them, we're probably going to have a less than 60k week. If not April, then definitely a summer month.



 

Damagon on 22 May 2014

Oh don't worry I remembered :)