Just look at how it works for my old one (again, what I did yesterday on me was flawed)

Item	Prediction	MATH	Actual	Accuracy
	Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii)	410,000	410/842*100=48.69%	842,536	48.66%
	Devil May Cry 4 (PS3)	102,000	102/208*100= 49.03%	208,837	48.84%
	Wii Fit (Wii)	102,000	70*1.45=101.5K	70,594	55.51%
	Disgaea 3 (PS3)	36,974	37/58*100=63.74%	58,013	63.73%
	Devil May Cry 4 (X360)	33,333	33/43*100=76.7%	42,917	77.67%
	Wii Sports (Wii)	35,333	23*1.5= 34.5K	23,702	50.93%
	Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (DS)	55,000	34*1.6=54.4	34,431	40.26%
	Mario Party DS (DS)	33,334	20*1,64=32.8K	20,397	36.57%
	Wii Play (Wii)	25,400	11.670*2=23340 25400>23340 so 0%	11,670	0%
	Monster Hunter Freedom 2nd (PSP)	18,700	17*1,09=18.53K	17,188	91.2%
	113,925	97*1,17=113.49	97,723	83.42%
	103,925	69*1.5=103.5	69,511	50.49%
	33,333	33/39*100=84.6%	39,676	84.01%
	63,000	63/70*100=90%	69,655	90.45%
	3,838	3.8/6.1*100=62.29%	6,108	62.84%

 

 

I'm within 1 % every single time. Are you telling me that is too far off? This isn't 100 % correct, but it has a smaller accuracy fail than the weekly.

@Oyvoyvoyv: You simply don't get it. You are using wrong formula. The accuracy that is shown in the table you posted have nothing to do with right formula and is not used to calculate earnings.
I showed you that you are off with CS around 60%. Is it to small for you?

No, because I think YOU are wrong. MY formula appears to be working on all the things in the 1st prediction league.

Judging by your method, what would Wii Play then be at last week? According to mine: 0%. Correct: 0%

Do your way, if it is something else than 0% your hypothesis has been weakened.

@Oyvoyvoyv: I think that I should simply assume that you don't understand English and don't know what I am saying. I will try last time.

No, it doesn't. You think it works but it doesn't. Numbers that you are looking at in 1st prediction round have nothing to do with real numbers used in calculation.


WiiPlay didn't have 0% accuracy. 0% is accuracy of "average prediction". This parameter is shown on prediction rounds' page but has nothing to do with calculating earnings. Is it imposible to understand for you? How old are you?


It is not 0% and I have stated it numerous time. I've even stated that there will be no situations when a bet gets 0% accuracy (It is theoreticly possible but so unprobably that it won't happen ever).

ioi said in respond to people that though the way you do (it includes me):



Check this thread if you still don't understand, the way to calculate winning are stated there by ioi (however they will be probably changed):
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=17796

This is from the first Japan predictions.

	average prediction	actual	average accuracy
	104,576	97,723	92.99%
	93,924	69,511	64.88%
	41,080	39,676	96.46%
	52,980	69,655	76.06%
	7,617	6,108	75.29%

 

	my prediction		actual	my accuracy
	115,000	vg$ 5	97,723	82.32%
	95,000	vg$ 5	69,511	63.33%
	45,000	vg$ 5	39,676	86.58%
	65,000	vg$ 5	69,655	93.32%
	6,500	vg$ 5	6,108	93.58%

All you need to know is if you had a better accuracy than the average then you made a profit for that game/console

so for PSP and 360 I made a nice profit, but for DS is lost a bit, and failed on both Wii and PS3.
I think ioi is now implementing a multiplier of 1.1 or something, which means you can in fact be slightly less accurate than average and still make money, so I would have been profitable on the DS too (though not much)

Edit: ignore the italics because I was using the accuracy of the average prediction, instead of the average accuracy 

-------

If you want to work out the accuracy before the tables are updated simply get the difference between your prediction (or the average prediction) and the actual numbe, take it away from the actual, then divide by the actual and multiply by 100.

So for the Wii:
115,000 - 97,723 = 17,277

97,723 - 17,277 = 80,466

80,446/97,723 = 0.8232043 *100 = 82.32 (2.d.p)

---The average accuracy is the average of all the individual accuracies, not the accuracy of the total of all estimates.---

ah right I forgot that, so the average accuracy is not what I said.

Ahh, why didn't you just link to that earlier? He explained it totally understandable.

TWRoO said: This is from the first Japan predictions.   average prediction actual average accuracy 104,576 97,723 92.99% 93,924 69,511 64.88% 41,080 39,676 96.46% 52,980 69,655 76.06% 7,617 6,108 75.29%

I think our confusion came from these numbers: why show us the accuracy of the average prediction, which may be way too high (PS3) or way too low (Wii Play) just by chance?

I've got it now, the number used for our earnings is in fact the REAL average accuracy (the sum of all the accuracies divided by the number of players), which will give half the players a winning bet, and the other half a loosing bet... which makes sense...

That's the number we should see written in that column, everything would be much more easier to understand then...

 

Good point Soul, if that was what was there, we could use the way I was using to do it.