kamil on 22 February 2008
@Oyvoyvoyv: I think that I should simply assume that you don't understand English and don't know what I am saying. I will try last time.
MY formula appears to be working on all the things in the 1st prediction league.
No, it doesn't. You think it works but it doesn't. Numbers that you are looking at in 1st prediction round have nothing to do with real numbers used in calculation.
Judging by your method, what would Wii Play then be at last week? According to mine: 0%. Correct: 0%
WiiPlay didn't have 0% accuracy. 0% is accuracy of "average prediction". This parameter is shown on prediction rounds' page but has nothing to do with calculating earnings. Is it imposible to understand for you? How old are you?
Do your way, if it is something else than 0% your hypothesis has been weakened.
It is not 0% and I have stated it numerous time. I've even stated that there will be no situations when a bet gets 0% accuracy (It is theoreticly possible but so unprobably that it won't happen ever).
ioi said in respond to people that though the way you do (it includes me):
The average accuracy is the average of all the individual accuracies, not the accuracy of the total of all estimates.
To use an example:
3 bets. One says 70k, one says 100k, one says 130k. The real number is 100k
The average accuracy isn't 100%. It isn't 70+100+130 / 3*100.
The average accuracy is (70%+100%+70%)/3 so 80%.
This means that players 1 and 3 get 7/8ths of their bet back and player 2 gets 1.25 times his bet back.
3 bets. One says 70k, one says 100k, one says 130k. The real number is 100k
The average accuracy isn't 100%. It isn't 70+100+130 / 3*100.
The average accuracy is (70%+100%+70%)/3 so 80%.
This means that players 1 and 3 get 7/8ths of their bet back and player 2 gets 1.25 times his bet back.
Check this thread if you still don't understand, the way to calculate winning are stated there by ioi (however they will be probably changed):
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=17796
