Let's break down the numbers, shall we? The average sales for the consoles over the course of this year have been roughly 100,000 Wiis a week vs. 50,000 360s a week in the US. At current rates ceteris paribus, that would give us 11.82 vs 11.16 by the end of June. Meaning we'd need roughly an additional 700,000 units sent to the US over the current average per week over the course of 19 weeks.

Assuming (quite fairly) that February and March are off limits, that leaves us 13 weeks for that extra 700,000 units. Which is roughly 55,000 more units per week from April to June. This is all worst-case scenario, too, where they only just beat the 360 by the end of June and the 360 gets no sales boosts (or drops). A more likely scenario is an extra 975,000 units over the course of that timespan, or 75,000 extra units a week. That would still put the Wii on track to beat the 360 in June, particularly given that the 360 sales have a potential to pick up again once the summer blockbuster games start coming out.

I wonder if he accounted for 360's price cut which will surely happen until then. If he did, Wii sales will be massive.

Another thing to consider is that he may be talking about retail sales which lead consumer sales by a few weeks.

Further extrapolation for you: this hike in production projected is roughly 55% to 75%, assuming they don't adjust the overall distribution ratios to favor the US at the expense of Japan and Europe. Which would put the Wii between 2.79 and 3.15 million units per month. These numbers are, of course, even more speculative than my above extrapolations, due to the fact that they shift the supply chain around frequently, but it is at least something of a ballpark figure to go off of based on current data.

Thanks for breaking down the numbers.

Grand Theft Auto 4 and Rainbow Six Vegas 2 are the only big ones I see coming down the pipe before June.  Reggie must have something up his sleeve -- there must be a ton of Wiis headed toward America because he obviously would have looked at these numbers as well.

I don't think Rainbow Six Vegas 2 will move many units, but GTA4 might move 200k or even 300k.  It's hard to say since it's split between two platforms and it's much more casual than a game like Halo 3.  GTA4 is a game more likely to have long legs and continue to sell as people pick up the system, rather than drive system sales.

If Nintendo is still producing 1.8 million units per month, there's no reason half of those couldn't go to North America or just over 200k units per week.  That'd cover the gap.

Your absolutley right! even if it does they dont sell the same software or games, except a few like raving rabids and Madden which graphically speaking are to different games! So they arent viewed as competition. now PS3 on the other hand thts thier comp. hi end HD graphics!

 Yeah.  Seems like a bad PR move to a bit of hubris.  Bad show really, even if they do accomplish it.

If I was MS I wouldn't say a thing... then if it fails rag on him in the press. 

That's not why Wii isn't their competition. Nitnendo isn't their competition because Nintendo doesn't want to control your living room. They just want to create fun games for people to play... like they always have.

The only reason Microsoft came in the videogame buisness in the first place is to prevent Sony from creating an all popular entertainment hub in your living room that's less a videogame machine and more an etertainment computer hooked up to your TV that does multiple fucntions. (Kinda like the PS3)

Microsoft would be happier if instead of 360's and PS3's people bought entertainment towers that could do the same thing and hook them up next to their TVs to replace Blu-ray players, DVD players, CD players and Videogame systems and whatever else you might want. However they aren't as marketable which is why everyone is trying to bridge the gap via videogames.

MS would like to win the console war, but so long as Sony doesn't win... they are somewhat happy. 

Could be happening before as well.