| Sky Render said: Let's break down the numbers, shall we? The average sales for the consoles over the course of this year have been roughly 100,000 Wiis a week vs. 50,000 360s a week in the US. At current rates ceteris paribus, that would give us 11.82 vs 11.16 by the end of June. Meaning we'd need roughly an additional 700,000 units sent to the US over the current average per week over the course of 19 weeks. Assuming (quite fairly) that February and March are off limits, that leaves us 13 weeks for that extra 700,000 units. Which is roughly 55,000 more units per week from April to June. This is all worst-case scenario, too, where they only just beat the 360 by the end of June and the 360 gets no sales boosts (or drops). A more likely scenario is an extra 975,000 units over the course of that timespan, or 75,000 extra units a week. That would still put the Wii on track to beat the 360 in June, particularly given that the 360 sales have a potential to pick up again once the summer blockbuster games start coming out. |
Thanks for breaking down the numbers.
Grand Theft Auto 4 and Rainbow Six Vegas 2 are the only big ones I see coming down the pipe before June. Reggie must have something up his sleeve -- there must be a ton of Wiis headed toward America because he obviously would have looked at these numbers as well.
I don't think Rainbow Six Vegas 2 will move many units, but GTA4 might move 200k or even 300k. It's hard to say since it's split between two platforms and it's much more casual than a game like Halo 3. GTA4 is a game more likely to have long legs and continue to sell as people pick up the system, rather than drive system sales.
If Nintendo is still producing 1.8 million units per month, there's no reason half of those couldn't go to North America or just over 200k units per week. That'd cover the gap.
