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Forums - Nintendo - 3DS is cannibalizing Wii U

curl-6 on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:

There's always a degree of serendipity when anything is that successful. 

Michael Jackson's Thriller is a miracle. So is James Cameron's Titanic. So is TV's Seinfeld. 

Of course these things were deliberate in their design, but to the degree that they are embraced by the public requires a certain amount of timing and (sure) luck. 

Because otherwise you should be able to make a hit product everytime just by execution and that's not always the way things work.

Michael Jackson tried his damndest to top Thriller multiple times but never could do it, because it's not that f*cking easy, lol. I think that's one thing Nintendo fans don't get, you can't just pull a Wiimote type idea out of your ass every 5 years, that's not how basic creativity works. That's an idea that comes around maybe once every 20 years. 

Not even Apple is capable of doing that ... they had an incredible streak with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, but since then haven't been able to come up with a new idea as strong as that ... because it's *difficult* to do (you think they haven't invested billions in trying to find the next big thing?).

Like I said though, Wii was successful cos it was in touch with the market. Wii U is flopping because it's out of touch.

I'm not saying they could easily have had another Wii megahit, but they could easily have had a solid 50-60m selling system.



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Soundwave on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

There's always a degree of serendipity when anything is that successful. 

Michael Jackson's Thriller is a miracle. So is James Cameron's Titanic. So is TV's Seinfeld. 

Of course these things were deliberate in their design, but to the degree that they are embraced by the public requires a certain amount of timing and (sure) luck. 

Because otherwise you should be able to make a hit product everytime just by execution and that's not always the way things work.

Michael Jackson tried his damndest to top Thriller multiple times but never could do it, because it's not that f*cking easy, lol. I think that's one thing Nintendo fans don't get, you can't just pull a Wiimote type idea out of your ass every 5 years, that's not how basic creativity works. That's an idea that comes around maybe once every 20 years. 

Not even Apple is capable of doing that ... they had an incredible streak with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, but since then haven't been able to come up with a new idea as strong as that ... because it's *difficult* to do (you think they haven't invested billions in trying to find the next big thing?).

Like I said though, Wii was successful cos it was in touch with the market. Wii U is flopping because it's out of touch.

I'm not saying they could easily have had another Wii megahit, but they could easily have had a solid 50-60m selling system.


If they had some kind of unbelievable new controller idea sure. But the Wii U as is ... even if they marketed it perfectly and named perfectly it wouldn't sniff 50-60 million. 

The entire concept of the Wii brand is that it's about new controller interfaces that are so unique that people go crazy over them after playing for just a few minutes. 

When you don't have that, the whole deck of cards falls in on top of itself. The other brutal lesson Nintendo is learning here is how fickle the casual audience is. They are not loyal to anything but their own needs, say what you want about "manchildren" but they take their gaming seriously ... casuals are the equivalent of the flightly good looking blonde at a night club that has a different guy trying to entertain her every 10 minutes. She's not going to date you just because you made her laugh once and decided to dance with you for ten minutes. 



Azhraell on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
leyendax69 said:
curl-6 said:

It was none of those things; not a fluke, not luck, not a miracle. It was a deliberate, premeditated, and thought out smash hit.

The Wii U's struggles are due to the way it itself was handled; confusing name, too expensive, delayed software, but most importantly, a failure to account for the current market.

Indeed, which lead us to the conclusion they don't know how the video game market works. Of course I'm not talking about handhelds of course, they are unbeatable there. You may be right, wii could have been a premeditaded move of Nintendo, but doesn't change the fact that's not going to happen again.

It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the Wii U would flop. It could have been a success if they'd not made so many elementary mistakes.

It's like that scene in Jurassic Park 2:

"Don't worry Ian, I'm not making the same mistakes again!"
"No, no, you're making all new ones."

Maybe they didn't make any big mistakes. I'm not saying they are irrelevant because is not true, but their brand and franchises are less popular every time. A lot of Nintendo fans disenchanted with Wii (I'm one of them) so is not to hard to realise why wii u is selling like crap.



curl-6 on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

There's always a degree of serendipity when anything is that successful. 

Michael Jackson's Thriller is a miracle. So is James Cameron's Titanic. So is TV's Seinfeld. 

Of course these things were deliberate in their design, but to the degree that they are embraced by the public requires a certain amount of timing and (sure) luck. 

Because otherwise you should be able to make a hit product everytime just by execution and that's not always the way things work.

Michael Jackson tried his damndest to top Thriller multiple times but never could do it, because it's not that f*cking easy, lol. I think that's one thing Nintendo fans don't get, you can't just pull a Wiimote type idea out of your ass every 5 years, that's not how basic creativity works. That's an idea that comes around maybe once every 20 years. 

Not even Apple is capable of doing that ... they had an incredible streak with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, but since then haven't been able to come up with a new idea as strong as that ... because it's *difficult* to do (you think they haven't invested billions in trying to find the next big thing?).

Like I said though, Wii was successful cos it was in touch with the market. Wii U is flopping because it's out of touch.

I'm not saying they could easily have had another Wii megahit, but they could easily have had a solid 50-60m selling system.


If they had some kind of unbelievable new controller idea sure. But the Wii U as is ... even if they marketed it perfectly and named perfectly it wouldn't sniff 50-60 million. 

The entire concept of the Wii brand is that it's about new controller interfaces that are so unique that people go crazy over them after playing for just a few minutes. 

They could have simply made it a PS4 with  both Wiimote and pro controller support, stocked up their studios during the Wii days to prevent software delays/droughts, named it better, and marketed it better, and it could have been a surefire hit.



Soundwave on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

There's always a degree of serendipity when anything is that successful. 

Michael Jackson's Thriller is a miracle. So is James Cameron's Titanic. So is TV's Seinfeld. 

Of course these things were deliberate in their design, but to the degree that they are embraced by the public requires a certain amount of timing and (sure) luck. 

Because otherwise you should be able to make a hit product everytime just by execution and that's not always the way things work.

Michael Jackson tried his damndest to top Thriller multiple times but never could do it, because it's not that f*cking easy, lol. I think that's one thing Nintendo fans don't get, you can't just pull a Wiimote type idea out of your ass every 5 years, that's not how basic creativity works. That's an idea that comes around maybe once every 20 years. 

Not even Apple is capable of doing that ... they had an incredible streak with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, but since then haven't been able to come up with a new idea as strong as that ... because it's *difficult* to do (you think they haven't invested billions in trying to find the next big thing?).

Like I said though, Wii was successful cos it was in touch with the market. Wii U is flopping because it's out of touch.

I'm not saying they could easily have had another Wii megahit, but they could easily have had a solid 50-60m selling system.


If they had some kind of unbelievable new controller idea sure. But the Wii U as is ... even if they marketed it perfectly and named perfectly it wouldn't sniff 50-60 million. 

The entire concept of the Wii brand is that it's about new controller interfaces that are so unique that people go crazy over them after playing for just a few minutes. 

They could have simply made it a PS4 with  both Wiimote and pro controller support, stocked up their studios during the Wii days to prevent software delays/droughts, named it better, and marketed it better, and it could have been a surefire hit.

Yeah but in that case you might as well just ditch the Wii name entirely as it's likely more of a liability than an asset. 



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curl-6 on 27 March 2014
leyendax69 said:

Maybe they didn't make any big mistakes. I'm not saying they are irrelevant because is not true, but their brand and franchises are less popular every time. A lot of Nintendo fans disenchanted with Wii (I'm one of them) so is not to hard to realise why wii u is selling like crap.

I do not believe that the Wii caused a net loss of Nintendo fans, since Nintendo franchises, even the less  casual friendly ones like Zelda, sold better on Wii than GC. (Which is where the real exodus occurred) 



curl-6 on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:

Yeah but in that case you might as well just ditch the Wii name entirely as it's likely more of a liability than an asset. 

Sure, why not? They ditched the Gameboy name, after all, and that didn't hurt them.



Azhraell on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:

Yeah, phenomenons happen largely on their own, the idea that you can "will" a phenonmenon into existence through sheer hard work and execution is kind of silly. 

It's like telling JK Rowling to just write harder and eventually she'll come up with something even more popular than Harry Potter. Uh no. It's virtually impossible to top Harry Potter, that was a one time thing that probably won't happen again for a long time and if it does it won't be JK Rowling that comes up with the idea, because the odds of one person "winning the lottery" twice like that are extremely low. 

That's not to say she didn't work hard on Harry Potter or it was all luck and all her work on it should be invalidated ... no, it's just stating the that *repeating* something like that even with the same (or even more effort) is extremely unlikely. 

That's a really good example. Happens in every entertainment media. Like you said, JK Rowling will probably never make such a hit like Harry Potter, Oda Eichiro another One Piece, Miyamoto another Mario... there are countless cases. Its something that just happens one time in a life.



Soundwave on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
leyendax69 said:

Maybe they didn't make any big mistakes. I'm not saying they are irrelevant because is not true, but their brand and franchises are less popular every time. A lot of Nintendo fans disenchanted with Wii (I'm one of them) so is not to hard to realise why wii u is selling like crap.

I do not believe that the Wii caused a net loss of Nintendo fans, since Nintendo franchises, even the less  casual friendly ones like Zelda, sold better on Wii than GC. (Which is where the real exodus occurred) 


It alienated some people, also I think while the Wii had a lot of good will in its earlier years, a lot of that good will started to subside by about the middle of the generation and by the end of the generation for a lot of people Wii was that "thing" that was gathering dust in the corner or that they only used for Netflix. 

For a system that had a 100 million userbase, it could barely sell things like Sin & Punishment, Red Steel 2, Metroid: Other M, Xenoblade, and even relatively underwhelming Zelda: Skyward Sword numbers, etc. towards the end of its life span, which to me indicates a lot of people were bailing out in droves and buying a PS3 or 360 to become their primary gamer console if they hadn't already. 



JGarret on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
leyendax69 said:

Nintendo is cannibalizing wii u -_- they just don't know how home console market works, every console since the SNES has sold less, wii was a miracle.

Wii wasn't a miracle, it was a conscious and brilliant insight into the market; insight they completely failed to exercise with Wii U.

Wii U is the antithesis of the Wii; the Wii's success was due to its recognition of a changing market, Wii U's failure is due to its lack of recognition of a changing market.

The whole point of the Wii was: do something that hasn't been done before, break new ground. The Wii U is just "try the same strategy that worked last time."

I do agree however that Nintendo is cannibalizing Wii U.

I'm sure Nintendo would have loved to repeat the Wii's success. It's part of the reason the Wii U is compromised the way it is, because they didn't want to move too far away from the success of the Wii. 

This is not an insight problem. 

It's a reality problem -- you can't expect your R&D to come up with an idea like the Wiimote every 5 years. It's impossible. It's like winning big in Vegas ... can you do it? Sure. Is that a sound financial strategy for paying your bills every month? Hell no. 

Their R&D simply could not come up with something as compelling as the Wiimote this time around, and honestly the whole "OMG! I have to buy that console because it has a new controller" thing itself may becoming passe as Kinect is not helping the XBox One at all either. 

Nintendo hit at the exact right time with the Wiimote with the exact right idea, but it's not a repeatable formula because once the moment is over, tons of variables change.

But the root success of the Wii Remote was reading the market, detecting an opportunity, and seizing it. With Wii U they showed no such understanding of the market; they just assumed it hadn't changed since 2006, while with the Wii they recognized that it had changed.

They are/were living in a bubble.