Hah, you're the guy who always has doom and gloom for Xbox.
They aren't spending wasting lots of money, all they've done so far is pack in a game which doesn't cost much. If they really want to spur sales they'll cut the price.
They're actually kind of doing amazingly well, given They've got a good shot to win March NPD which is kind of ridiculous at $100 more than PS4. Titanfall seems to be a hit. And PS4 is now basically no longer supply constrained (been in stock at Amazon for a week so far).
Do they really use such low tech methods to make Forza bundles? How do they get the sticker seal off without damaging the box? Try opening a console box and then trying to make it look like you didn't to see what I mean. Removing the seal tends to rip paper off.
I suppose, otherwise they'd have to knock the price down on all the non-forza boxes to get them to sell, which would be too expensive. Forza is basically free to Microsoft.