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Forums - Gaming - My prediction; Xbox ONE will finish last this Gen.

binary solo said:
Nah, we're going back to the 6th gen, only with slightly different proportions. Last chance for Wii U is getting to that casual friendly price range and all those Wii casuals suddenly realising they actually want HD casual experiences. But I don't think that will happen.


They're ediscontinuing the Wii's & DS's online this May, I believe this May 20th 2014.

If they want to continue to play Mario Kart & Pokémon online, they'll be force to upgrade to a shining Wii U & 3DS.

Don't know how much sells will be affected by this, but this will clearly help a lot. Plus the only 2 8th Gen Systems with Backwards Calability for people of the last Gen who never bought a Wii nor DS.

The end of this year will be interesting, and who knows what will happen in the market, but it seems like the PS Vita is the only one with its future set in stone.



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TornadoCreator said:
shikamaru317 said:
TornadoCreator said:
shikamaru317 said:
Highly unlikely considering the large amount of 3rd party support the Xbox One is getting compared to the Wii U.

Who cares... it's the SAME third party support the PS4 has. What matters are exclusives and with the PS4 dominating this generation it'll be the console that best contrasts the PS4 that will matter. The Xbox One is basically a PS4 that lacks Playstation exclusives, the Wii U however is completely different. Xbox One is PS4-lite, and PS4-lite cannot compete with Wii U when the PS4 is also out at the same time, and it's cheaper.

If it was Xbox One vs. Wii U, the Wii U would lose hands down, but it's not, it's Xbox One vs. Wii U all whilst under the shadow of the PS4, and that shadow destroys the Xbox One.

So you think just because those same 3rd party games are available on the PS4 they won't sell at all on X1? Most multiplatform games will see at least 30% of their sales on Xbox One, compared to about 45% on PS4 and 25% on PC. And who ever said the Xbox One doesn't have it's own exclusives, they've already announced several anticipated exclusives, and they're building up their first party even as we speak. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft has more than enough expendable money to pay for 3rd party exclusives.

Yeah, but it won't happen that way. If current trends continue we'll have a Microsoft that doesn't care enough to fish for 3rd part exclusives and developers won't want to leave PS4 as that'll be where the sales lay; some genres like platformers and JRPGs are going to be non-existent on XBO. Having expendable money isn't enough, they have to be willing to actually spend it. Remember, the people who would pick the XBO over the PS4 already have, now the people left still to buy are the cautious and casual gamers. The cautious will not want an Xbox based on it's consumer practices, higher expense, lower performance, and lower quality exclusives; while the casuals will be more attracted to Sony with it's higher number of platformers, indie games and the like.

The problem is, it's so easy for people to judge based on USA, and the internet seems very good at that. As a non-American I'm very aware of how the US perspective is the default in many cases. In gaming it's a massive skew. Amongst my friends in UK/Netherlands there's little call for Xbox. I'm a member of a large games club and the same is true across the board for them. The 3DS is insanely popular more than half the club carry them around with them, the PS3 is ubiquitous and is the default game system, a decent percentage of people have owed an Xbox 360 but either never play it now or they've had a RROD (we do have one Halo fanboy at our club though), the PS4 is still "under consideration" by most people but only a few have actually bought it so far. There's a fair few PC gamers, though Linux is quite popular amongst our club. The Vita appears every now and then, about half as popular as the 3DS at best. A few people have a Wii U and it's generally well spoken of. There's a scary number of people with iPads, (slightly more common than the Vita sadly). Lastly, I know only one person with an Xbox One... he also owns a PS4 and has more money than sense....

...now, is my experience representative of the entirety of Europe. Hardly. But, I'm a member of a games club here in UK, (which has a few mainland European members, Dutch, German, French. Spanish and one Romanian), and we have a total of about 60+ members at last count. I also know a few other friends outside of my club, so I'm basing it of a fairly large group of varied gamers, from teenage students to parents in their 30's. They're mainly aged 18-35, and the majority are in their late 20's but it's a solid range. I'm quite familiar with Netherlands too, I know 7 Dutch gamers rather well, and talk to them regularly (in person and online) and over there Microsoft basically doesn't exist, some games shops basically stock Sony systems and 3DS and almost nothing for anything else because they just don't sell, they just have a small shelf in the far corner at most.

Microsoft's sales rely on USA. I really don't see XBO working well outside of USA in the long run and that means it'll probably drop significantly in ratio of multiplat sales as the PS4 sales keep going up.


Sounds like you might have great insight on the European market, especially Sony VS. Microsoft within that region.

All the more reason to look forward to the end of the year, to see how it all plays out.



ah so thats it. Here we are putting WAY too much faith in Mario Kart. For one they have a cheaper Mario Kart for 3ds which is not that old and on a much popular system. I seriously doubt that the casuals care for online the way the core does so no I dont think Ninty cutting the online for Wii and DS is going to make people jump in for MK8. They will probably keep doing what ive suspected all along, play locally. Backward compatible? Obviously alot of people dont care or the WIi U would be doing much better and the super HD twins doing much worse. Dont see why people will automatically care about that all of a sudden. and im sure the few that do care have their WIi still.



shikamaru317 said:
TornadoCreator said:
shikamaru317 said:
Highly unlikely considering the large amount of 3rd party support the Xbox One is getting compared to the Wii U.

Who cares... it's the SAME third party support the PS4 has. What matters are exclusives and with the PS4 dominating this generation it'll be the console that best contrasts the PS4 that will matter. The Xbox One is basically a PS4 that lacks Playstation exclusives, the Wii U however is completely different. Xbox One is PS4-lite, and PS4-lite cannot compete with Wii U when the PS4 is also out at the same time, and it's cheaper.

If it was Xbox One vs. Wii U, the Wii U would lose hands down, but it's not, it's Xbox One vs. Wii U all whilst under the shadow of the PS4, and that shadow destroys the Xbox One.

So you think just because those same 3rd party games are available on the PS4 they won't sell at all on X1? Most multiplatform games will see at least 30% of their sales on Xbox One, compared to about 45% on PS4 and 25% on PC. And who ever said the Xbox One doesn't have it's own exclusives, they've already announced several anticipated exclusives, and they're building up their first party even as we speak. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft has more than enough expendable money to pay for 3rd party exclusives.

30% and 45% equates to 40% XBONE and 60% PS4 for just the two consoles.

Game XBONE PS4
COD Ghosts 45% 55%
Battlefield 4 42% 58%
FIFA 14 32% 68%
AC4 33% 67%
NBA 2K14 39% 61%
Madden NFL 25 46% 54%
NFS Rivals 28% 72%
Lego Marvel 41% 59%
Just Dance 57% 43%
Theif 38% 62%
Skylanders Swap Force 50% 50%
Tomb Raider 26% 74%

Only half of these titles hit your percent. What are you expecting to change?



Although I just got a Wii U. I'm not sure if it will finish second. Mario kart 8 and smash will keep ahead of the Xbox one for atleast another 2 years then I see it making third afterwards. It'll be a tight race between the Wii U and Xbox one that's for sure



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So Nintendo is finally fighting with MS. Heats off Sony at long last!! oh wait nvm Vita is still fighting the 3ds.



JoeTheBro said:
shikamaru317 said:
TornadoCreator said:
shikamaru317 said:
Highly unlikely considering the large amount of 3rd party support the Xbox One is getting compared to the Wii U.

Who cares... it's the SAME third party support the PS4 has. What matters are exclusives and with the PS4 dominating this generation it'll be the console that best contrasts the PS4 that will matter. The Xbox One is basically a PS4 that lacks Playstation exclusives, the Wii U however is completely different. Xbox One is PS4-lite, and PS4-lite cannot compete with Wii U when the PS4 is also out at the same time, and it's cheaper.

If it was Xbox One vs. Wii U, the Wii U would lose hands down, but it's not, it's Xbox One vs. Wii U all whilst under the shadow of the PS4, and that shadow destroys the Xbox One.

So you think just because those same 3rd party games are available on the PS4 they won't sell at all on X1? Most multiplatform games will see at least 30% of their sales on Xbox One, compared to about 45% on PS4 and 25% on PC. And who ever said the Xbox One doesn't have it's own exclusives, they've already announced several anticipated exclusives, and they're building up their first party even as we speak. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft has more than enough expendable money to pay for 3rd party exclusives.

30% and 45% equates to 40% XBONE and 60% PS4 for just the two consoles.

Game XBONE PS4
COD Ghosts 45% 55%
Battlefield 4 42% 58%
FIFA 14 32% 68%
AC4 33% 67%
NBA 2K14 39% 61%
Madden NFL 25 46% 54%
NFS Rivals 28% 72%
Lego Marvel 41% 59%
Just Dance 57% 43%
Theif 38% 62%
Skylanders Swap Force 50% 50%
Tomb Raider 26% 74%

Only half of these titles hit your percent. What are you expecting to change?

He said 30%, 45%, 25%, why change his words like that?

Also, if you are gonna change it, its pretty shitty that you wouldn't count Thief and NBA 2k14



Killerbee23 said:
Although I just got a Wii U. I'm not sure if it will finish second. Mario kart 8 and smash will keep ahead of the Xbox one for atleast another 2 years then I see it making third afterwards. It'll be a tight race between the Wii U and Xbox one that's for sure


The Xbox One will pass the Wii U the end of summer and if not then most definitely fourth quarter.



You forgot to add " only if the Xbox One gets discontinued". I give your prediction a 6/10.



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

I agree...

I don't see Xbone outselling Wii U this gen but I think it will be really close...