bigjon said:
You had me till 200 million. I was thinking 125 mil TOPS.
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Quote from
Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#
Let me guys introduce you a sound sales estimate here. Now below on the very left, there are the actual cumulative PS3 sales data, taken from VGChartz data base. On the right, there are 4 possible different scenarios extrapolated from this actual set. Here are a few assumptions, parameters.
a) I assumed that the market will shrink by 17% hence the number 0.83 (from 240 million to 200 million consoles to be sold over 7 years, due to a good chunk Wii crowd leaving the market). This number may be different but not too different.
b) Then I created a scenario where the HD consoles will make up between 80-90% of the market, creating two possible extreme examples, hence the numbers 0.8 & 0.9 corresponding the HD title.
c) Finally the PS4 market among HD Consoles only will range between 67-74%. This all creates a 4 combination output.
When you apply those 4 different scenarios for cumulative sales over 7 years, just take a look at the numbers that appear. You may crunch the numbers in anyway you like, Numbers don't lie.
|
|
Size |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
|
|
HD |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
|
PS4 |
0.67 |
0.74 |
0.67 |
0.74 |
|
PS3 |
|
HD=0.80 PS4=67 |
HD=0.80 PS4=74 |
HD=0.90 PS4=67 |
HD=0.90 PS4=74 |
| 2006 |
1,252,040 |
2013 |
1,864,148 |
2,058,910 |
2,097,167 |
2,316,274 |
| 2007 |
9,194,799 |
2014 |
13,690,034 |
15,120,336 |
15,401,288 |
17,010,378 |
| 2008 |
19,095,804 |
2015 |
28,431,530 |
31,401,989 |
31,985,472 |
35,327,237 |
| 2009 |
31,835,593 |
2016 |
47,399,661 |
52,351,864 |
53,324,618 |
58,895,847 |
| 2010 |
45,595,160 |
2017 |
67,886,127 |
74,978,708 |
76,371,893 |
84,351,046 |
| 2011 |
60,758,573 |
2018 |
90,462,764 |
99,914,098 |
101,770,610 |
112,403,360 |
| 2012 |
73,357,818 |
2019 |
109,221,640 |
120,632,856 |
122,874,345 |
135,711,963 |
| 2013 |
80,614,472 |
2020 |
120,025,992 |
132,566,021 |
135,029,241 |
149,136,773 |
So basically, this predicts that PS4 will sell between 13.6 and 17 at the end of this year; and between 120 to 149 million at the end of 2020. You may ask the reason for discrepancy between this estimate and the original one. There are 2 reasons :
a) The previous estimate assumed constant market size, this one shrinks it by 17%
b) The previous estimate was based on 2005-2012 data, this one is based on 2006-2013, causing slight differences.