Not much higher than it is now, honestly. Jp will be a slow-burn.

I am going with 180k until July then it will be 140k until sept with we will see slowly increasing sale.

They just need Final Fantasy XV. A new Dragon Quest on PS4 would be great too.

Sorry but your prediction is already off to a great start: Sony already sold 1.1m PS4s in Q1 through Feb 8, you expect only another 900k with the Japan launch and almost 2 months of sales in other markets? That is pretty laughable. Your predictions wont come true.

Total PS4 installbases:

March 31: 7-8m

June 30: ~10m

Sept 30: 12m

Dec 31: 18-20m (6-8m sales here, it's gonna be a crazy holiday, the first real next gen holiday)

Yields will improve considerably, production is increasing, PS4 won't be having supply issues forever, and gamers are choosing one system over the other, not only PS3 users are upgrading but 360 users are choosing a PS4 as well. It looks like PS4 is gonna have 75-80 pct marketshare between it and the Xbone.

~190k

2 million is likely short for Q1, agreed, these numbers were jotted down in late December. I figured with a 10% margin of error, that leaves about 137.5k average for the remaining 8 weeks of sales in Q1 on vgchartz, expect a big first week and then a rather huge drop in Japan and further drops in other regions since there are no proper system sellers probably until end of March.

I think I'll be off, possibly by quite a bit at that but I find your end of March numbers over the top, and I still believe that my year end total is more realistic. To reach 8 million (your sales cap for Q1); it would need a weekly average of 350k, that's just not happening, Japan will not be the catalyst for numbers above the Wii at the time, especially with such few true heavy hitters in the library. It would basically require an average increase of well over 100% weekly and sustained sales at this level, just how much do you think it will sell in Japan first week? It would have to move close to 800k-1 million there FW in order for 8 million to happen. I can definitely see 7 million by the end of March, that leaves about 1.8 million sales or so from Feb 8th (our latest numbers), a 225k average is very realistic until end of March.

The PS3 launched at about 500k in Europe in March 2007, this then dropped to about 100k in the following week and about 70k the third week, 50k for the fourth and finally around 42k fifth week. Yes, granted that the PS3 was not nearly as popular overall but it had ample supply throughout the year and this is by far the strongest region for the PS brand, certainly a lot stronger than Japan, both in population and popularity. The PS3 debuted at 86-87k in Japan in November 2006, dropping down to 45k-ish and then 35k-ish, in the holiday season.

Now, if we go by the PS4's global momentum compared to the PS3, the PS3 had about 2.8 million sales by March 31 2007, with a very late launch and only two weeks of European numbers, let's say it could have sold 3.5 million with Europe along the whole way (mostly speculation, but hey, that's what we do, an additional 700k from Nov 12th and through the holidays and Q1 should have been relatively simple for the PS3 in Europe).
So, I'm going by your most realistic assumption of 7 million by March 31st, that means that the PS4 is roughly twice as popular/fast as the PS3 was. Now, the Japan launch is a tough one to figure out, but let's apply the same frontloaded formula as for the US, where the PS4 was about 7 times higher than the PS3 at launch, substract for the fact that this region is less kind to PS and consoles in general and assume it will launch at 5x the PS3's number in Japan, about 400k first week, a fairly realistic assumption imo. With similar drop rates to the PS3 in Europe (again; I think that's only fair, given Japan's crashing console market), that makes a second week of 80k, but let's double it to 160k to be nice and 110-115k third week, add another 150k for the remaining two weeks of March and we have 820-830k for Japan until March 31st, I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass but my ass at least some incling of the going's on...

Side note: I think the PS3 could have gone past the 3.5 million mark and closer to 4 million by March 31st without the staggered launch, so it's not entirely correct imo to call the PS4 "twice as popular" either, that was mostly for easier calculations and a bets case scenario.

That leaves about 1 million for the rest of the world to get to 7 million, requiring only 125k weekly average, which isn't an unrealistic baseline for this period. 7 million is very realistic, damn near given, I'd say. I admit I would not have thought so in December (when this initial calculation was made).

Now, what I'm wondering is how you expect the PS4 to maintain the Q1 momentum through all of Q2 to reach 10 million sold? For the 10 million mark to be achieved at this point, it needs those 8 million by March 31st, and I just think it's incredibly unlikely that it will and 3 million for Q2 is equally unlikely imo. My calculation yields about 3.7-3.9 million for the combined sales of Q2/Q3, a global weekly average of 150-160k is not unthinkable in either direction, this is the period where the Wii will very likely pull ahead a great deal in totals with launches aligned, it managed an average around 250k for Q2/Q3 and I can easily see it being 60% or so above on average through the summer lull, the casual oriented audience don't adhere as strictly to purchasing habbits of console buyers in these months, phones and tablets show the same trend here; the dip is significantly smaller in this period and we know that the PS4 targets a traditional console audience.

6 million for Q4 is doable, I think, that's a weekly average of about 460k, but it could also go below. 8 million is a huge stretch though; that requires a 615k average through all of Q4, you have to admit that this is very unrealistic, it would require several weeks probably in excess of or close to 1 million and is a full 900k above the Wii's first Q4.

In short; I agree that my Q1 figure is off the mark by a fair bit but I maintain that my year end number is a lot more probable/close regardless, you're expecting the PS4 to nearly match the Wii's first year, 250k average through Q2/Q3 and 7.1 million for Q4 will be really hard to beat. With the nature of the two products; I think the Wii was a slower starter due to less pre-orders and no momentum from previous generation's audience, but a greater sprinter in the first 2-3 years and then it dropped off the map. The PS4 will rise more slowly, remain flatter and stay viable longer imo, two different market segments, two very different products. The way I see it; 18 million by year end 2014 is damn near impossible and 20 million if flat-out impossible. We also have to consider that MS could make a surge in NA, somewhat dampening the PS4's momentum there closer to the holidays, they won't just sit and watch their ass being handed to them. The Wii U is out of the game though, best left out of the tally altogether, to put it bluntly.

That said; there is no doubt that it will be a devastating victory for the PS4. But: I believe my 15.5 million year end will be closer than your 18 million, let alone 20 million. Time will show!

PS: "not only PS3 users are upgrading but 360 users are choosing a PS4 as well" Really, how do you know that?

About what it is now, at least through until holiday buying starts to pick up. Downward trend outside of Japan for the next 5 months or so, and Japan settling at a level that will compensate for that downward trend. So I vote 150K.

I think it won't drop below 180K the rest of this year. Probably see it around 220k on average. If momentum is this high already, things can only go up with PS Now, Cloud TV, E3, Gamescom, and TGS.