Well, I don't think it will stay constant and assuming it is, doesn't mean that I expect that. This because I don't know YET which way it will go...

The market size may INCREASE because

a) Population increases

b) World becomes richer and the console makers open up to new markets

c) Some of the new casuals brought in with the Wii stays in gaming

The market size may DECREASE as well because

a) The Global recession affects many developed countries

b) A good chunk of the Wii Casuals (drawn to motion controls) leave the market entirely

c) Another portion of the casual gamers leave the market for mobiles.

All of the effects above are TRUE and IN PLACE but we don't know yet which ones are dominant. So we don't have enough information for whether or not the market will get smaller or larger; in this case, the best bet is to assume it's constant UNTILL better information is revealed. Meanwhile, I keep my estimates in a range to minimize the error. So in the future, it's unlikely to change the point estimates but rather just the ranges.

@Radishead Plenty of people do think a video game crash will happen this gen. I don't. This is the first time in 2 generations that we'll have actual competition from other consoles that aren't the big 3. Samsung, Amazon, Valve. It should be interesting.

This is possible, but it would need the market to shrink by at least 30% (those estimates assume constant market size). We'll see. Again those are not necessarily accurate estimates. It is better to start off with large ranges, and then shrink them, rather than have wrong estimates and start all over again.

I will be able to predict after seeing how some exclusives push hardwares:
For xbox one: TitanFall, Halo, Gears
For PS4: GT 7, Uncharted, TLOU 2
For Wii U: Zelda, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart.
There is too much room for the other 2 consoles to improve for a 70% PS4 domination.

Don't you think is a little precipitate? You should wait for the first full year for PS4 and Xone. Predicting wii u numbers is understandable though. But, if I have to say something about your numbers, they seems likely even if we don't know how the market could change.

Lol when I said your estimates are almost identical to mine, I lied. They are in the same ballpark though.

Xbox One 37.4 mil - 60 mil
PS4 sales 122.6 - 160 mil
Wii U sales 12.7 - 18

That's part of the fun. The uncertainty.

I made those predictions to highlight a few things:

a) It's been claimed that both True NextGen Consoles will sell over 100 million. Although it's probable that PS4 will sell over 100 million, there is no freaking way that XB1 can sell as much. First, it's too expensive (much more so than X360), Second, it hands over too much market share to PS4 on a market of certain size, Third, about 60% of its sales came from US, where now it is not even the leading console anymore.

b) I wanted to give a ball park estimate for the WiiU sales, lowest to highest, not many people seem to have tracked it so far

c) It's nice to see whether or not PS4 has a chance to triumph PS2. When we look at the lowest estimate, 132.3 million, you clearly see that not only that it will be much more popular than PS3, but also will sell MORE THAN WII in the long run. Most people seem to forget that Wii sold tremendously in the short to medium run but sales faded away after 3-4 years. This will not happen to PS4. We still don't know whether or not PS4 will reach the success of PS2 though, which is tough due to its inherently higher price tag, but possible.

d) Finally, I wanted to formulize things now, so that it would be a matter of updating the data to get more accurate estimates in the future. This template gives it to me.

Similar enough, except for the wiiU.

Maybe get a more exiting title.