Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market

[freedquaker]

leyendax69 said:
Don't you think is a little precipitate? You should wait for the first full year for PS4 and Xone. Predicting wii u numbers is understandable though. But, if I have to say something about your numbers, they seems likely even if we don't know how the market could change.

 

I made those predictions to highlight a few things:

a) It's been claimed that both True NextGen Consoles will sell over 100 million. Although it's probable that PS4 will sell over 100 million, there is no freaking way that XB1 can sell as much. First, it's too expensive (much more so than X360), Second, it hands over too much market share to PS4 on a market of certain size, Third, about 60% of its sales came from US, where now it is not even the leading console anymore.

b) I wanted to give a ball park estimate for the WiiU sales, lowest to highest, not many people seem to have tracked it so far

c) It's nice to see whether or not PS4 has a chance to triumph PS2. When we look at the lowest estimate, 132.3 million, you clearly see that not only that it will be much more popular than PS3, but also will sell MORE THAN WII in the long run. Most people seem to forget that Wii sold tremendously in the short to medium run but sales faded away after 3-4 years. This will not happen to PS4. We still don't know whether or not PS4 will reach the success of PS2 though, which is tough due to its inherently higher price tag, but possible.

d) Finally, I wanted to formulize things now, so that it would be a matter of updating the data to get more accurate estimates in the future. This template gives it to me.