Ckmlb,  I don't think that the discussions of Sony leaving the console market has ever been based on the fact that they don't place first. It is all based on economics.

For all of Sony's dominance with PS2 they only made two billion (of which Sony has already burned all of that plus more on the PS3.) Yes, a lovely number and quite high, but not when your product started out selling at $300 and each game was $50 a pop.  Consider the fact that the move Pirate 3 nearly broke half a billion dollars in it's opening week, and as a high estimate we could say that tickets sold for $9-10. ( It was not filmed for IMAX, in which, tickets usually are around $12-13).

I know I am comparing two different markets, and I'm not attempting to hold video games to movies, I'm simply trying to illustrate how little money Sony made for their 7 years of dominance with PS2 due to their sales tactics for being #1.

I don't buy into Sony being counted out just yet, but it isn't an asinine idea if all the facts are looked at properly.

pachter's right on this one!

Last Generation:
Casual gamers play Madden/Spiderman and will stick with a normal controller. 120mln. Age 15-25 year This group doesn't want fun they want cool and mature games. Don't say Manhunt 2, because Resident Evil didn't work either.

Non-gamers play Wii-sports Singstar, Buzz so they don't need a normal controller. 50mln 4-14 and 25+ They just want fun, but it's a smaller group of the market.
Hardcore gamers 10mln. No need to explain.

Sony will lose almost all non gamers to the Wii. And it will lose some casual gamers to 360.
The non gamers group isn't that huge. The Wii-mote will expand this market. If casual market grows with 25% than Non gamers market will grow with 50%.
So casual gamers market is still 2 times bigger. Although it will be divided between xbox 360 and PS3. It will belikely that PS3 will have a bigger slice than 360. This would make the PS3 the winner of the generation.

It's not completly true, because Wii will have some casual gamers, but on the other hand PS3 will keep some non-gamers.

Why will this non gamers market be bigger than casual gamers market? Well the younger gamers already like games. It can't expand only by population growth. They get growth from the older gamers 25+. Those people are busy people and don't consider to buy a console. I still see potential in 60+ people who have more free time. And still want to be fit, but won't go to a sports-school anymore.

PS3 wil have 7mln @ $600 and it will have sold more than 15mln when they reached $300.

What asinine speculation. Is the Wii really that much of a threat to anyone's ego here that they have to rationalize it by claiming it will only suck up non-important or irrelevant demographics of the consumer base? It's no more fanboyish than saying, "The Wii is only stealing away the PS3's gradeschool and toddler demographic with their continued strangle hold on kiddy crap, lawl."

May I also point out the childish elitism of using such immature words as "Non-Gamer", "True-Gamer", "Hardcore-Gamer", etc to rationalize your console's demographic. Do you really need to justify your choice in consoles so forcefully as to think of yourself as the only type gamer that matters or what can be considered a true gamer? Why not just start giving the games "Penis raitings" to better illustrate the size of your ego's cock while you're at it?

If the Wii is only stealing away the PlayStation's "Non-Gamer" demographic then I guess 90% of PlayStation's original demographic was "Non-Gamer" as the PS3's sales keep dropping while Wii's keep going strong. Seriously, I don't care what console you choose to back but if you're going to make excuses for it at least try and keep them in line with the given facts around us.

@Fractal of Time - I'm sorry, but huh?

"Casual gamers play Madden/Spiderman and will stick with a normal controller. 120mln. Age 15-25 year This group doesn't want fun they want cool and mature games. Don't say Manhunt 2, because Resident Evil didn't work either."

So you're saying that 15 - 25 year old gamers don't want fun games? And I like how you lump "mature" together with "cool." I'm 22, so I guess I must prefer mature games that aren't fun, but I play them anyway because it makes me cool. Everyone listen up: don't do what you enjoy, do what's cool.

The words "game" and "fun" go hand in hand. I like games regardless of whether or not they're "mature". The important thing is that I have fun. And it just so happens that the cost-to-fun ratio for the Wii (its games and the new control scheme) right now more than justifies its purchase for many people. When the PS3 can do the same, then they'll start selling better.

I already said this:
It's not completly true, because Wii will have some casual gamers, but on the other hand PS3 will keep some non-gamers.

Anyway you have given another good point, why 15-25 years won't buy a Wii. It's indeed very said that many of those people think the Wii is a kiddie console. It will have more respect from them, because some of them will thinkthe Wii-mote is cool.

Why do I use these words? Non gamer/Casual Gamer/Hardcore gamer. It's because I'm defining the market. By doing that I'm putting people who make the same dessisions and have the same desires in 1 group. If I know how big a group/market is I could calculate how many console might be sold to that group.

There is a difference between nongamer and casualgamer they heb different desires have a different way to play games and so on. There will be no chance both of those groups will prefer a Wii.

Er... dude you're a little off in the head I think.  The PS2 WAS the casual market.  The Wii is the same this generation.  Casuals (not us) buy games on 3 things: price, amount of games, and popularity of the system.  The Wii is the best on all of these (except amount of games, but it's gaining fast on the 360 there).  That's all that matters to them.  There never has been and never will be brand loyalty among casual consumers.  The Wii has all the casual games the other systems do (Madden, movie games, racing games, etc.) the difference is it's cheaper and more popular.  Popularity feeds off itself.  All the Wii is doing is expanding the casual market, not creating a whole new one.  

As far as hardcore go, that's a stupid term.  A better term would be dedicated gamer.  These people are spread out equally among all systems, and always have been.  There has never been a lack of support for a system on the internet just because a system is in last place.  Ever wonder why that its?  It's because the dedicated gamers like us are always spread out in a fairly equal ratio between the 3 systems, though right now (at least if this board is any indicitaion) there is certainly more dedicated Wii support than for the other 2.  Still, this demographic will NEVER change.  And you know what?  People like us don't matter much at all in the system war because of that.  We will always be split up between the 3 consoles. 

People like us aren't what sold the PS2.  We may have bought the PS2, but we aren't the reason it sold so well.  We are the reason FF games sell, but we aren't the reason Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto games sell.  We determine absolutely NOTHING about the winner of a given generation.  All we determine are software sales of the games targeted at us.  Even if EVERY dedicated gamer was on one system (which will never happen), they wouldn't total even half of the casual gamer audience.  So believe what you wish, but what it boils down to is people like you, and I, and everyone on this forum have no effect on the winner of the generation.  The casual gamers do, and they already picked the Wii.  It's popularity, game library, and cheap price will continue to grow and the appeal will only broaden, not constrict.

@PlagueOfLocust
I'm talking "general", ofcourse 15-25years like to play fun games. They just don't focus on these party games. Ofcourse you play Resident Evil for fun. But it's also about a cool and mature/horror experiance. Now consider a Spongebob party games.

@naznatips

No this generation is different than last generation.
Last generation DC, NGC PS2 and Xbox all focused on being a highend system.
But this time it's different.
Xbox 360/PS3 are still focussing on highend system. Wii is going a different way. And this different way splits the casual you are meaning in 2 parts non and casual gamers.

You can't look back at last generation.

You are totally right about the dedicated gamer. It has zero influence on the market.

It's not price it's value.
Amount of games is correct if all console are alike. I don't know the Wii-mote makes games very different. I think the non-gamers will love it and casual gamers will hate it.

Popularity is also important, but Wii won't secure a 5 year popularity. It could be 2/3 years.

Please explain what will stop the Wii's popularity?