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Forums - Sony Discussion - Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

JoeTheBro on 17 January 2014

You're fixating on this 30% figure. That's not how it works. Break it up per market.

USA did 1.18 million in 2012 and 0.51 million last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.22 million this year.

Europe did 1.45 million in 2012 and 0.92 last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.58 million this year.

Japan did 0.67 million i 2012 and 1.29 million last year. Increasing by the same percent predicts 2.48 million this year.

 

Excluding other markets, that adds up to 3.28 just this year. It'd be up YOY actually.



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betacon on 17 January 2014
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

As YOY sales of the Playstation Vita begin to drop  into unforseen levels and with the absolute lack or interest for that matter of Sony themselves in developing any significant software for the platform, the question now to be asked is "will PS Vita manage to pass ltd numbers of the Sega Gamegear"? 


PLaystation Vita will be up this year and has finally started tracking ground in Europe and Japan, it Will easily beat the Sega Gamegear and most likely double the sales.

What compelling software does the Vita have coming this year that will cause it to break the trend of 70% sell through declineYOY and double in sales as you've predicted? In my opinion 2012/2013 lineup (although sparse) seemed more attractive as a gamer and yet sales have declined.


Not all movements have to be western nor software driven, I'm lost how you think the Vita will struggle to sell 3-4 million more units Lifetime.

It's very easy to calculate. Based on the fact that Vita has less compelling software announced for this year than the previous 2 years, one can fairly assume that sales will continue to decrease. With a price cut, the vita still managed to sell less that 30% in it's second year than 1st. If this trend continues (which is highly likely) and is just nearing the 10 million mark by mid 2015, do you really believe they won't scrap it?

Vita sold 15% less and the price drop came late, the same drop off will still see it pass 10 million by the end of 2014, the 2014 line up in Europe and japan is looking better than 2013.. not sure what you mean the line up is lookign weaker.

Where are you getting 15% from ????? Your halfway there,lol. If we take the sales figures from Dec 2011, and Feb 2012 - Jan 4th 2013, the Vita sold 4.25 million units within that time frame (less than a year for WW sales). From Jan 4th 2013 - Jan 5th 2014 it has only sold an additional 3.02! If we calculate the percentage that brings us to 29% (I rounded to 30).

Please, advise me what games in your mind are more compelling than the 2012/2013 lineup for the Vita. I'm interested to know.

What?

Ys, FF-X, SS Delta, Battle of Z, Toukiden, Freedom warriors, borderlands.



Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
Michael-5 said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
Michael-5 said:

Well I disagree on less compelling software, FFX has yet to release outside of Japan, and I think that's the best game for the Vita. Plus Western gamers will see Gravity Rush 2, Freedom Wars.

As for Gamecube, on second glace Vita is noticably below Gamecube at the same time period. Gamecube sold about 10 million units in 2 years (including 3 holidays seasons) Vita sold 7 million in 10 years (including only 2 holiday seasons since it released in February). Still Gamecube sales only fell 10% during the third year, and if Vita followed the exact same pattern as Gamecube (by % drops annually) that would put Vita at

2.8 million in 2014 (-10% from 3.1 million)
2.2 million in 2015 (-20%)
1.3 million in 2016 (-40%)
0.4 million in 2017 (-70%)

Total: 6.7 million + the 7 million it was at at the start of 2014. That's 13.7 million, which is weak.........especially considering how much bigger the market is now.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

Anyway, if anything the Vita is today GameGear. It's looking to sell a bit better, but considering the market has grown it's actually selling worse.

----

30% of a drop for 2014 is too much, especially now that that PS4+ Vita bundle exists. PS4 did boost Vita sales I recall, and FFX is a big deal. I think 14 million or so is likely, which is more then the Sega Master System (13 million)

Edit: I just realized that I compared Gamecubes fiscal years (March-March) to Vita's actual years (Jan-Dec). Still, the same pattern emerges, Vita should have 2 more years of decent sales before it drops.

FFX is a great game no doubt but I do not see it moving massive hardware in the West. Same goes with Gravity Rush 2 and Freedom Wars. They are not compelling enough to drive sales of the Vita, especially in the West. I wouldn't put my money on either of those games as being system sellers.

Let's say hypothetically, the Vita manages to only drop 10-15% instead of improving sales. Do you really think Sony will invest any more money in developing games for it? I highly doubt it as it would not be worth the investment. They literally would need a significant increase in order to make it viable to do so as I bet you it cost more to make AAA games for the platform then what the returns are. Again, lets just say they managed the slight drop your hoping for, I could still see them discontinuing production by next year which would in turn create the possibility of selling under 11 million units.

I would also like to point out that 2nd year sales of the gamecube increased 34% compared to the 1st year whereas the 3rd year dropped 13% compared to the 2nd. Vita is the opposite with a 30% drop in it's 2nd year. You also have to admit that Uncharted, LBP,Persona 4,  Killzone, etc were much more compelling titles to get people to purchase the system than the "anticipated" titles of this year. If those titles could not sell the Vita to the public, do you really believe the games you listed will?

Sony released games on the PS1-PS3 after the system was discontinued. Why would Sony suddenly stop supporting their system late life? Nintendo still developed for the N64 and Gamecube right up until they were replaced (often seeing some of their best work come out right at the end).

You think the Vita will be discontinued in 2015? Have you looked at Japan sales, Vita is doing fine there. Until hype in Japan dies, they will still sell Vita's here too.

Uncharted, LBP, Persona 4 and Killzone 2 released over a span of 2 years, not 1. All Vita had in 2013 was Tearaway, Killzone, Soul Sacrifice, Ys, and Dragon's Crown. 2014 is already looking better with Gravity Rush 2, FFX, Freedom Wars, Soul Sacrifice Delta, and maybe God Eater 2 outside of Japan.

Anyway, none of the upcoming games releasing for the Vita are System Sellers, any would be lucky to break 1 million, but it's enough to keep the fans happy. I don't see PSV being discontinued any time soon because it's still selling well in Japan. Plus all Sony needs to do is announce an Uncharted: Golden Abyss 2 a Gran Turismo, or even just a God of War, and boom that guarenteed Vita will be around for at least 3 years.

See the problem with your argument (at the end especially) is that your adding hypotheticals. Well if the announced such and such, it would do this and this. They are not going to do it at this point because they do not want to loose money, plain and simple. Uncharted just barely managed to move a million units and that was including bundles which speaks volumes. You've also listed games that technically fall under 2013 (for Japan at least) FFX & God Eater 2.

FFX has already seen a significant decrease from week one and will probably end up with 500K in sales (japan). Japan tends to historically have the highest FF sales per entry across all regions so the other's will not contribute too much. I would bet the other games listed will struggle to reach 500k units a piece and will be mainly purchased by existing owners. They are not true blue system sellers.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

As YOY sales of the Playstation Vita begin to drop  into unforseen levels and with the absolute lack or interest for that matter of Sony themselves in developing any significant software for the platform, the question now to be asked is "will PS Vita manage to pass ltd numbers of the Sega Gamegear"? 


PLaystation Vita will be up this year and has finally started tracking ground in Europe and Japan, it Will easily beat the Sega Gamegear and most likely double the sales.

What compelling software does the Vita have coming this year that will cause it to break the trend of 70% sell through declineYOY and double in sales as you've predicted? In my opinion 2012/2013 lineup (although sparse) seemed more attractive as a gamer and yet sales have declined.


Not all movements have to be western nor software driven, I'm lost how you think the Vita will struggle to sell 3-4 million more units Lifetime.

It's very easy to calculate. Based on the fact that Vita has less compelling software announced for this year than the previous 2 years, one can fairly assume that sales will continue to decrease. With a price cut, the vita still managed to sell less that 30% in it's second year than 1st. If this trend continues (which is highly likely) and is just nearing the 10 million mark by mid 2015, do you really believe they won't scrap it?

Vita sold 15% less and the price drop came late, the same drop off will still see it pass 10 million by the end of 2014, the 2014 line up in Europe and japan is looking better than 2013.. not sure what you mean the line up is lookign weaker.

Where are you getting 15% from ????? Your halfway there,lol. If we take the sales figures from Dec 2011, and Feb 2012 - Jan 4th 2013, the Vita sold 4.25 million units within that time frame (less than a year for WW sales). From Jan 4th 2013 - Jan 5th 2014 it has only sold an additional 3.02! If we calculate the percentage that brings us to 29% (I rounded to 30).

Please, advise me what games in your mind are more compelling than the 2012/2013 lineup for the Vita. I'm interested to know.

What?

Ys, FF-X, SS Delta, Battle of Z, Toukiden, Freedom warriors, borderlands.

Borderlands will fall short of Killzone sales. FFX was released in Japan (historical best region) last year and from the looks of it will just hit 500k there (maybe 1 mill WW). God Eater 2 is more compelling and will sell more than every other game listed (except SS Delta) and Toukiden was released this year (Japan), which I don't forsee greater sales in the West.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

toastboy44562 on 17 January 2014
spurgeonryan said:
toastboy44562 said:
Yes.


I friended you on miiverse.

 

on to@ic

 

yes.


miiverse? I aint got no account on miiverse!!



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Aerys on 17 January 2014

Lol, funny thread, look at my predictions, it will answer to your insanity.

There will be no drop compared to 2013, it's even the opposite if you think a bit, Vita will obviously sell much better this  year in Japan, and there is absolutely no reason to think vita will drop in US or europe, again it's the opposite in europe thanks to the PS4(  and we all know why Vita sold more in 2012, helped by COD + launch year numbers, so the drop in 2013 is logic but there is absolutely no reason to think it will drop in 2014, but much more reason to think the opposite )



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

thismeintiel on 17 January 2014

Lol, yes. And quite easily. In fact, there's a good chance it will at least tie it this year. Sales will most likely improve this year in Japan, as increasing sales of the PS4 means there's an increased chance in some of those people wanting the Vita for remote play. There's also a possibility that Sony will drop the price by $50 again this year, which will definitely boost sales a little.



 

Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
JoeTheBro said:

You're fixating on this 30% figure. That's not how it works. Break it up per market.

USA did 1.18 million in 2012 and 0.51 million last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.22 million this year.

Europe did 1.45 million in 2012 and 0.92 last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.58 million this year.

Japan did 0.67 million i 2012 and 1.29 million last year. Increasing by the same percent predicts 2.48 million this year.

 

Excluding other markets, that adds up to 3.28 just this year. It'd be up YOY actually.

When I was giving the 30% figure I was being generous. Historically, once the decrease begins for a console it does not tend to stop. There are annomalies but I do not beleive the PS Vita will be one of them. 

Your Japan numbers are incorrect as well my friend. From Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012 the Vita moved 1.07mill, whereas from Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which is only a 7% increase YoY. If 2014 manages that increase rate the total would be 1.23 mill by Dec 2014 which in addition to your .22 in N.A and .58 in EU would total 2.03  (33.8% decrease from 2013). 

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41259/Japan/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Japan/



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

GdaTyler on 17 January 2014

It'll definitely reach 10M + by this year's end. The lineup isn't the best, but it's better than last year, in terms of Japan. There are still many unannounced titles which make this a little unpredictable. One thing that's certain is it can't do worse than last year. Thus, it'll reach 10M+



3DS Friend Code: 0533 - 6146 - 0418
PSN ID: atylerman5

Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
Aerys said:

Lol, funny thread, look at my predictions, it will answer to your insanity.

There will be no drop compared to 2013, it's even the opposite if you think a bit, Vita will obviously sell much better this  year in Japan, and there is absolutely no reason to think vita will drop in US or europe, again it's the opposite in europe thanks to the PS4(  and we all know why Vita sold more in 2012, helped by COD + launch year numbers, so the drop in 2013 is logic but there is absolutely no reason to think it will drop in 2014, but much more reason to think the opposite )


My insanity? Look at your predictions? Right! Vita will sell the exact same amount as the Wii U (which has MK8 and Smash Bros releasing). Now it's not to say that your Wii U numbers are bad, I'm saying your Vita numbers are completely out too lunch, and that is putting it in a nice way. I'd say it tops 2.3 million WW for the year.  Sorry to say but the PS4 will not save it! 



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"