Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Michael-5 said:

Well I disagree on less compelling software, FFX has yet to release outside of Japan, and I think that's the best game for the Vita. Plus Western gamers will see Gravity Rush 2, Freedom Wars.

As for Gamecube, on second glace Vita is noticably below Gamecube at the same time period. Gamecube sold about 10 million units in 2 years (including 3 holidays seasons) Vita sold 7 million in 10 years (including only 2 holiday seasons since it released in February). Still Gamecube sales only fell 10% during the third year, and if Vita followed the exact same pattern as Gamecube (by % drops annually) that would put Vita at

2.8 million in 2014 (-10% from 3.1 million)
2.2 million in 2015 (-20%)
1.3 million in 2016 (-40%)
0.4 million in 2017 (-70%)

Total: 6.7 million + the 7 million it was at at the start of 2014. That's 13.7 million, which is weak.........especially considering how much bigger the market is now.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

Anyway, if anything the Vita is today GameGear. It's looking to sell a bit better, but considering the market has grown it's actually selling worse.

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30% of a drop for 2014 is too much, especially now that that PS4+ Vita bundle exists. PS4 did boost Vita sales I recall, and FFX is a big deal. I think 14 million or so is likely, which is more then the Sega Master System (13 million)

Edit: I just realized that I compared Gamecubes fiscal years (March-March) to Vita's actual years (Jan-Dec). Still, the same pattern emerges, Vita should have 2 more years of decent sales before it drops.

FFX is a great game no doubt but I do not see it moving massive hardware in the West. Same goes with Gravity Rush 2 and Freedom Wars. They are not compelling enough to drive sales of the Vita, especially in the West. I wouldn't put my money on either of those games as being system sellers.

Let's say hypothetically, the Vita manages to only drop 10-15% instead of improving sales. Do you really think Sony will invest any more money in developing games for it? I highly doubt it as it would not be worth the investment. They literally would need a significant increase in order to make it viable to do so as I bet you it cost more to make AAA games for the platform then what the returns are. Again, lets just say they managed the slight drop your hoping for, I could still see them discontinuing production by next year which would in turn create the possibility of selling under 11 million units.

I would also like to point out that 2nd year sales of the gamecube increased 34% compared to the 1st year whereas the 3rd year dropped 13% compared to the 2nd. Vita is the opposite with a 30% drop in it's 2nd year. You also have to admit that Uncharted, LBP,Persona 4,  Killzone, etc were much more compelling titles to get people to purchase the system than the "anticipated" titles of this year. If those titles could not sell the Vita to the public, do you really believe the games you listed will?

Sony released games on the PS1-PS3 after the system was discontinued. Why would Sony suddenly stop supporting their system late life? Nintendo still developed for the N64 and Gamecube right up until they were replaced (often seeing some of their best work come out right at the end).

You think the Vita will be discontinued in 2015? Have you looked at Japan sales, Vita is doing fine there. Until hype in Japan dies, they will still sell Vita's here too.

Uncharted, LBP, Persona 4 and Killzone 2 released over a span of 2 years, not 1. All Vita had in 2013 was Tearaway, Killzone, Soul Sacrifice, Ys, and Dragon's Crown. 2014 is already looking better with Gravity Rush 2, FFX, Freedom Wars, Soul Sacrifice Delta, and maybe God Eater 2 outside of Japan.

Anyway, none of the upcoming games releasing for the Vita are System Sellers, any would be lucky to break 1 million, but it's enough to keep the fans happy. I don't see PSV being discontinued any time soon because it's still selling well in Japan. Plus all Sony needs to do is announce an Uncharted: Golden Abyss 2 a Gran Turismo, or even just a God of War, and boom that guarenteed Vita will be around for at least 3 years.

See the problem with your argument (at the end especially) is that your adding hypotheticals. Well if the announced such and such, it would do this and this. They are not going to do it at this point because they do not want to loose money, plain and simple. Uncharted just barely managed to move a million units and that was including bundles which speaks volumes. You've also listed games that technically fall under 2013 (for Japan at least) FFX & God Eater 2.

FFX has already seen a significant decrease from week one and will probably end up with 500K in sales (japan). Japan tends to historically have the highest FF sales per entry across all regions so the other's will not contribute too much. I would bet the other games listed will struggle to reach 500k units a piece and will be mainly purchased by existing owners. They are not true blue system sellers.