So with the news 3DS is at 11.5m LTD in the US end of 2013, we know it sold around 1m units in Dec (down YOY), giving it full year sales of 3.8m, just above last years total of 3.65m

2011: 4.08m
2012: 3.65m
2013: 3.80m

Pokemon and 2DS were considered big hardware movers yet it couldn't match 2011 sales, what can be done in 2014 to surpass 4m again?(realistically?)

I should add this is a good but not great yearly average for a system in the US, PS3 which came a distant 3rd in the US last gen averaged 3.5 - 4.5m yearly.

Looks like it. Unless the system drops its price with at least a 100 dollars or something miraculous like that!

How much does it retail for do you know? I think XL is around $180, standard around $130 and 2DS around $100 right? Maybe I'm off on that.

I'm going to go and say it hasn't peaked yet.

But I'm no analyst and I don't know the future so anything can happen. Maybe it already peaked, maybe it didn't.

Yes. Which is why i think only a miracle would make it sell even more in the coming years. It's sales are healthy enough, but the thing is no DS.

All the heavy hitters for the system are already out so I don't know what else Nintendo can do to stop the 3DS from dropping YOY. Its already got Pokemon, Mario Kart, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Zelda, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing and 3D Mario. The 2DS is only $100 so I don't think another pricedrop is going to do much. It's selling well, but it's not going to come close to the DS. Probably 90-95m lifetime.

It's trending below 15m a year, if it doesn't uck that trend this year then it'll be lucky to hit 80m IMO.

2011 - 14.6m
2012 - 14.8m
2013 - 13m (based on shipping 8m this Q which is high considering sell through is below 7m...)
2014 - 11m?

That's what it seems like, decline shouldn't be too drastic for the next two years at least so overall it should do pretty well.

If Nintendo releases a new handheld in 2017 then yeah you're right, it will probably end up below 80m lifetime.  This does not bode well for the handheld market. Sony will exit out and focus more on VR tech, and Nintendo will have to deal with the growing tablet/smartphone market on their own. 

Really odd looking back and seeing this. 2011 started so horrible for the 3DS, but still..

Yes, I think it's the top. If they were capable of making the new "Pokemon" and use it to "capture" the minds of young gamers once again it would be possible, but I seriously doubt that would happen.