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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Which console will be in first place by the end of 2014?

 

Which console will have the most Lifetime sales by the end of 2014?

Wii U 210 25.55%
 
PS4 569 69.22%
 
Xbox One 42 5.11%
 
Total:821
Seece on 04 January 2014
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.

Haha no problem. I don't think anyone is crazy enough to predict a multiplat will beat those games.

Kart and Smash both have good chances of outselling Halo though.

I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.

360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.

That's US only. Massive.


The 360 had a much higher install base when Halo 3 launched. Looking at the charts the 360 was at 15.8 million global sales by the end of 2007. With Halo 5 coming only a year after launch instead of two, even with your optimistic predictions the XBONE will have a smaller install base (realistically it'll have a much smaller install base lol). Long term the game can still have great sales, but it's going to have a smaller opening.

How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.

What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.


Even if XB1 is at 10m~ end of 2014,  it did 7m on a 16m install base. That suggests 4m on a 10m~ userbase.



 

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PenguinZ on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.

Haha no problem. I don't think anyone is crazy enough to predict a multiplat will beat those games.

Kart and Smash both have good chances of outselling Halo though.

I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.

360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.

That's US only. Massive.

I'm not sure any future Halo game could have the same impact that Halo 3 had... Halo used to be huge, then Cod came along and dethroned it. The player retention rate for Halo 4 online was horrible.



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC

zorg1000 on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.

Everything you say is 100% sure to happen, never happens. Like your 100% WiiU won't be under 6m this year.

But really. You know what Halo sells right?? What multiplat is going to come close to that on WiiU? Pray tell.

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.

If u guys are talking specifically about 2014 sales than Donkey Kong, Mario Kart and Smash Bros might outsell Halo depending on when it releases and what Xbox install base is by the end of the year.

Halo 3 sold just under 7m and 360 sales were slightly under 16m at the end of 2007. I doubt Xbox will be that high at the end of the year, im guessing more like 10-12m so If Halo 5 has a similar attach ratio than It would sell about 5m this year. Also Halo games have always released in either September or November, Halo 3 was in September but if Halo 5 releases in November than its attach ratio will likely be smaller for the year so maybe more like 4m. So assuming that One is around 10-12m by the end of the year I think Halo will be about 4-5m.

Donkey Kong releases in February so it will have 10 months of this year to sell, Mario Kart releases in Spring so thats 6-9 months and Smash Bros doesnt have a release window yet but IF it releases in Aug/Sept and Halo in November than its certainly possible that these games outsell Halo this year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Seece on 04 January 2014
PenguinZ said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.

Haha no problem. I don't think anyone is crazy enough to predict a multiplat will beat those games.

Kart and Smash both have good chances of outselling Halo though.

I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.

360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.

That's US only. Massive.

I'm not sure any future Halo game could have the same impact that Halo 3 had... Halo used to be huge, then Cod came along and dethroned it. The player retention rate for Halo 4 online was horrible.

Reach did 3.3m and Halo 4 did 3m+ so it seems to be a steady figure Halo does. I don't think 5 will do that in the US, more like 2.3m+ personally.



 

Seece on 04 January 2014
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.

Everything you say is 100% sure to happen, never happens. Like your 100% WiiU won't be under 6m this year.

But really. You know what Halo sells right?? What multiplat is going to come close to that on WiiU? Pray tell.

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.

If u guys are talking specifically about 2014 sales than Donkey Kong, Mario Kart and Smash Bros might outsell Halo depending on when it releases and what Xbox install base is by the end of the year.

Halo 3 sold just under 7m and 360 sales were slightly under 16m at the end of 2007. I doubt Xbox will be that high at the end of the year, im guessing more like 10-12m so If Halo 5 has a similar attach ratio than It would sell about 5m this year. Also Halo games have always released in either September or November, Halo 3 was in September but if Halo 5 releases in November than its attach ratio will likely be smaller for the year so maybe more like 4m. So assuming that One is around 10-12m by the end of the year I think Halo will be about 4-5m.

Donkey Kong releases in February so it will have 10 months of this year to sell, Mario Kart releases in Spring so thats 6-9 months and Smash Bros doesnt have a release window yet but IF it releases in Aug/Sept and Halo in November than its certainly possible that these games outsell Halo this year.

If Halo sells 5m WW it has it in the bag, not expecting any of those WiiU exclusives to do that. Is ANY WiiU exclusive above 2m yet?? (That hasn't been bundled)



 

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small44 on 04 January 2014
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
If there's something I've learnt about sales in this very website, is that we never know what to expect. Sales always take weird twists.
Looking at the current situation it's logical to assume PS4 will be the winner, but the real question is, will it be able to keep it's momentum? Will Wii U be able to make some sort of comeback (I'm not saying an epic one, just one good enough to compete properly against PS4)? What will happen with Xbox One? What about handhelds? I don't think that PS Vita will surpass 3DS but what if it suddenly starts selling great and 3DS sales lower making the gap between them decrease at a slow but steady rate?

Now, seriously people, we don't know what to truly expect specially since we have no idea what will companies do. Wii U + 3DS bundle? PS4 + Vita bundle? New services? What will happen when the Steam Machines come out and how will it affect the consoles sales? So much to think about.

If wii u manage to compete with ps4 it will be one of the most epic comeback but it imposible without 3rd party support same for psv it won't surpass Nintendo 3ds without 3ed party support.

Like I said, there's just so much to think about. We won't know how long will PS4 keep up these sales. Many people seem to believe it will always sell at these levels, but the truth is that we won't know 'till we see it for ourselves. Maybe it was just the initial hype + holidays, maybe  the console really is that convincing as for people to buy it in masses at anytime of the year, so as I said we won't know for sure until numbers speak. We also don't know what will happen with Wii U. Miyamoto's new IP can be either an epic fail or an epic win, X looks very promising, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be decisive, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Yarn Yoshi aren't system sellers at all but are definitely strong additions to the catalogue. I'll just go ahead and quote myself: Sales always take weird twists. Personally, I'd like them all to do at least well enough to make profit.


3rd party is what make a console successfull not first party,Nintendo first party didn't save Gamecube ,the lack of support kill it,Wii is a exception dispite the lack of 3rd party support casual gamers make it succesfull,casual don't seems interested on Wii u and 3rd party will not support wii u because people would prefer to play their game on ps4/xboxone because they are more powerfull.


But if those first party titles allows the Wii U to sell more hardware then the userbase will be bigger and third-partys will be able sell more, so at least they will make a port for it since there are bigger chances for it to make a profit. The other positive result will be the  fact that since the community is bigger, in order to maintain a good image the games for Wii U will be taken more seriously and will be better optimized and have better support (DLCs and such). About the power thing, in that case everyone should simply dispose their console and buy a high-end PC. More expensive? Yes. More powerful and updated? Yes. You get what you pay for.

A bigger userbase won't chance anything if those new peoples aren't interested on those games or prefer to buy them on ps4/xboxone.

Aren't pc got games later then console version and with console you don't need to change ram and graphics card to play all the games i think that's why some people prefer consoles over pc.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Zero999 on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

If u guys are talking specifically about 2014 sales than Donkey Kong, Mario Kart and Smash Bros might outsell Halo depending on when it releases and what Xbox install base is by the end of the year.

Halo 3 sold just under 7m and 360 sales were slightly under 16m at the end of 2007. I doubt Xbox will be that high at the end of the year, im guessing more like 10-12m so If Halo 5 has a similar attach ratio than It would sell about 5m this year. Also Halo games have always released in either September or November, Halo 3 was in September but if Halo 5 releases in November than its attach ratio will likely be smaller for the year so maybe more like 4m. So assuming that One is around 10-12m by the end of the year I think Halo will be about 4-5m.

Donkey Kong releases in February so it will have 10 months of this year to sell, Mario Kart releases in Spring so thats 6-9 months and Smash Bros doesnt have a release window yet but IF it releases in Aug/Sept and Halo in November than its certainly possible that these games outsell Halo this year.

If Halo sells 5m WW it has it in the bag, not expecting any of those WiiU exclusives to do that. Is ANY WiiU exclusive above 2m yet?? (That hasn't been bundled)

Nsmbu was above 2M before being bundled and 3d world will reach 2M soon enough.



JoeTheBro on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:

I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.

360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.

That's US only. Massive.


The 360 had a much higher install base when Halo 3 launched. Looking at the charts the 360 was at 15.8 million global sales by the end of 2007. With Halo 5 coming only a year after launch instead of two, even with your optimistic predictions the XBONE will have a smaller install base (realistically it'll have a much smaller install base lol). Long term the game can still have great sales, but it's going to have a smaller opening.

How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.

What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.

360 was at 8.8 million at the end of 07 in America. Just to keep things simple lets say XBONE ends 14 with 4.4 million in America. Half the install base, half the sales. 1.6 million first month.

 

It's more complicated though. On one hand, the XBONE is going to have a more dedicated fanbase, at least by percents. On the other hand, Halo 4 has left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it certainly was no Halo 2.

 

I'd go with a good and solid one and a half million first month.



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Seece on 04 January 2014
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

If u guys are talking specifically about 2014 sales than Donkey Kong, Mario Kart and Smash Bros might outsell Halo depending on when it releases and what Xbox install base is by the end of the year.

Halo 3 sold just under 7m and 360 sales were slightly under 16m at the end of 2007. I doubt Xbox will be that high at the end of the year, im guessing more like 10-12m so If Halo 5 has a similar attach ratio than It would sell about 5m this year. Also Halo games have always released in either September or November, Halo 3 was in September but if Halo 5 releases in November than its attach ratio will likely be smaller for the year so maybe more like 4m. So assuming that One is around 10-12m by the end of the year I think Halo will be about 4-5m.

Donkey Kong releases in February so it will have 10 months of this year to sell, Mario Kart releases in Spring so thats 6-9 months and Smash Bros doesnt have a release window yet but IF it releases in Aug/Sept and Halo in November than its certainly possible that these games outsell Halo this year.

If Halo sells 5m WW it has it in the bag, not expecting any of those WiiU exclusives to do that. Is ANY WiiU exclusive above 2m yet?? (That hasn't been bundled)

Nsmbu was above 2M before being bundled and 3d world will reach 2M soon enough.

Whaaa? It's not even near 1m yet.

330k in Japan week ending 21st. 215k in US Nov, probably the same in Dec, maybe a little more. Europe will obviously be less than both, especially as it fell out of the UK charts so quickly.

NSMB only did 2m in a year without bundles? The predecessor did like 23m??? So why are people saying DK ect are gonna sell huge because the ones on Wii did?



 

Seece on 04 January 2014
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:

I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.

360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.

That's US only. Massive.


The 360 had a much higher install base when Halo 3 launched. Looking at the charts the 360 was at 15.8 million global sales by the end of 2007. With Halo 5 coming only a year after launch instead of two, even with your optimistic predictions the XBONE will have a smaller install base (realistically it'll have a much smaller install base lol). Long term the game can still have great sales, but it's going to have a smaller opening.

How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.

What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.

360 was at 8.8 million at the end of 07 in America. Just to keep things simple lets say XBONE ends 14 with 4.4 million in America. Half the install base, half the sales. 1.6 million first month.

 

It's more complicated though. On one hand, the XBONE is going to have a more dedicated fanbase, at least by percents. On the other hand, Halo 4 has left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it certainly was no Halo 2.

 

I'd go with a good and solid one and a half million first month.

What? It's gonna end 2013 with 1.5m - 1.8m judging by UK trends and 3m+ shipped.

I don't see XB1 on par with 07 PS3 sales, not with the huge reception it's had. 08 maybe, which was 3.5m. I'd say minimum is 5m. You realise the 3.3m figure is first month in the US only. Not for the whole of 2007 in north america.

Why do you think I gave you the totals?? 360 was at 6.3m in the US when Halo 3 launched and it sold 3.3m.