Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
I see Kart and Smash being more slow burners, and the userbases being on par by the end of 2014. I see Halo getting a lot of Halo fans to jump on board than MK and Smash fans.
360 userbase was around 6.3m in US when Halo 3 launched, and it did 3.3m in the US launch month.
That's US only. Massive.
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The 360 had a much higher install base when Halo 3 launched. Looking at the charts the 360 was at 15.8 million global sales by the end of 2007. With Halo 5 coming only a year after launch instead of two, even with your optimistic predictions the XBONE will have a smaller install base (realistically it'll have a much smaller install base lol). Long term the game can still have great sales, but it's going to have a smaller opening.
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How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.
What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.
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360 was at 8.8 million at the end of 07 in America. Just to keep things simple lets say XBONE ends 14 with 4.4 million in America. Half the install base, half the sales. 1.6 million first month.
It's more complicated though. On one hand, the XBONE is going to have a more dedicated fanbase, at least by percents. On the other hand, Halo 4 has left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it certainly was no Halo 2.
I'd go with a good and solid one and a half million first month.
