By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

Rafux on 04 January 2014
episteme said:
Rafux said:
episteme said:

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)

"Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype"

And you base this on what? People are still buying PS4 not just for hype but because of the promise of coming new games exclusive and multiplatform. Mediocre launch games didn't stop PS1, PS2 or X360 from being a success.

Ok, at least in here Germany you get the PS4's ordered early in November right now if you're lucky. Not sure about other countries.

We'll see what happens after the pre-orders are shipped.

It will depend on the games releasing in spring. The PS4 won't be sold out forever without many critically acclaimed games. You have to fullfill the promise at a certain point. I'm not so sure about InFAMOUS, maybe Watch Dogs.


I'm confident Sony will fulfill the promise they have always had strong third party support, first half of the year with Infamous, Driveclub, Watchdogs and then there may be a couple of surprise hits in june like FIFA World Cup Edition and GTA 5 port (of course this is just especulation on my part) and close the year with the usual combo of Assassins Creed, COD, Battlefield, FIFA 15 plus Destiny and maybe The Order.



Around the Network
NYANKS on 04 January 2014

Our perspective on this issue will change massively once Mario Kart and Smash release, no matter what happens. But if there isn't some kind of maintained jump after that...that would be very interesting.



eyeofcore on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
Eyeofcore .. you're completely ignoring all the obvious signs that have been given to you. Look at 2013 sales and USE that evidence for your 2014 predictions.

I love your assumptions about me... hahaha

I have not ignored 2013 sales at all and I have looked at sales to get a realistic estimate yet that does not mean that performance in the past showcase the performance that it could have right now and in future as you are ignoring games that are going to be released plus the marketing that Nintendo is now ramping up from the get go now in January.



eyeofcore on 04 January 2014
S.T.A.G.E. said:
eyeofcore said:
I am out of here...

I won't argue with biased pro-Sony fans... I hurt their feeling.


We all want whats best for Nintendo but people just arent gravitating to it.

Yea right... So Wii U didn't sold much better in holidays of 2013 than rest of the year even when some weeks actually nearly matched launch numbers?!

If people didn't gravitate to Super Mario 3D World in November/December enough then something is seriously...seriously wrong.

Yet Wii U sales rose in holidays thanks to Super Mario 3D World and saying that people didn't gravitate even a little is fallacy and I would not be surprised if you were one of those people that went doom and gloom on early sales of Super Mario 3D World which now has shown legs... For Christ sake, the game broke 1.3 million copies :P

The major problem at hand is that the new consoles dropped and they are taking the spotlight from Nintendo. 

Oh... A product that just launched takes spotlight from a project that launched last year... Is that somehow odd all of the sudden?

Don't believe me? Keep watching the first quarter. Sony is going to zip past Nintendo and Microsoft its going to waltz past Nintendo as well. Even at $500 the Xbox One will have more yearly demand than the Wii U. The way they are selling Sony will pass Nintendo within the first quarter of 2014 and Microsoft will pass the Wii U most likely by Summer.

I'l ignore you because I know you will fail with this prediction...





Max King of the Wild on 04 January 2014

you heard it here first folks. eyeofcore is a psychic or time traveler. he knows the future. nintendo will sell as many units this quarter that the sold in 40weeks last year



Around the Network
DerNebel on 04 January 2014
eyeofcore said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:


We all want whats best for Nintendo but people just arent gravitating to it.

Yea right... So Wii U didn't sold much better in holidays of 2013 than rest of the year even when some weeks actually nearly matched launch numbers?!

If people didn't gravitate to Super Mario 3D World in November/December enough then something is seriously...seriously wrong.

Yet Wii U sales rose in holidays thanks to Super Mario 3D World and saying that people didn't gravitate even a little is fallacy and I would not be surprised if you were one of those people that went doom and gloom on early sales of Super Mario 3D World which now has shown legs... For Christ sake, the game broke 1.3 million copies :P

The major problem at hand is that the new consoles dropped and they are taking the spotlight from Nintendo. 

Oh... A product that just launched takes spotlight from a project that launched last year... Is that somehow odd all of the sudden?

Don't believe me? Keep watching the first quarter. Sony is going to zip past Nintendo and Microsoft its going to waltz past Nintendo as well. Even at $500 the Xbox One will have more yearly demand than the Wii U. The way they are selling Sony will pass Nintendo within the first quarter of 2014 and Microsoft will pass the Wii U most likely by Summer.

I'l ignore you because I know you will fail with this prediction...



Well pack it up guys, cause the Wii U is doing something unheard of, it's selling better in the holidays than it did during the rest of the year.



kastark on 04 January 2014

End of 2014 sales
Wii U: 15 million
Xbox One: 15 million
Playstation 4: 18 million
All 3 will be fairly happy



benji232 on 04 January 2014
VGhippy said:
Tagging for March. The salty fanboy tears will taste delicious, especially CAB1802's.

This.

I agree that the ps4 will eventually outsell the wiiU. However, those people expecting it to outsell it by March, let alone february, didn't they get the memo that the ps4 is behind the wiiU by 1.6M +? Those predictions are litterely expecting the wiiU to sell 0 units in the next 2-3 months and the pa4 to sell 200-250k per week. Ridiculous if you ask me.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Max King of the Wild on 04 January 2014
kastark said:
End of 2014 sales
Wii U: 15 million
Xbox One: 15 million
Playstation 4: 18 million
All 3 will be fairly happy


Wii U will not triple the last 14 months of sales in 12 months. X1 will not triple the Wii Us number in the same time frame. Youre spot on with thos Ps4 numbers



eyeofcore on 04 January 2014
DerNebel said:
eyeofcore said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:


We all want whats best for Nintendo but people just arent gravitating to it.

Yea right... So Wii U didn't sold much better in holidays of 2013 than rest of the year even when some weeks actually nearly matched launch numbers?!

If people didn't gravitate to Super Mario 3D World in November/December enough then something is seriously...seriously wrong.

Yet Wii U sales rose in holidays thanks to Super Mario 3D World and saying that people didn't gravitate even a little is fallacy and I would not be surprised if you were one of those people that went doom and gloom on early sales of Super Mario 3D World which now has shown legs... For Christ sake, the game broke 1.3 million copies :P

The major problem at hand is that the new consoles dropped and they are taking the spotlight from Nintendo. 

Oh... A product that just launched takes spotlight from a project that launched last year... Is that somehow odd all of the sudden?

Don't believe me? Keep watching the first quarter. Sony is going to zip past Nintendo and Microsoft its going to waltz past Nintendo as well. Even at $500 the Xbox One will have more yearly demand than the Wii U. The way they are selling Sony will pass Nintendo within the first quarter of 2014 and Microsoft will pass the Wii U most likely by Summer.

I'l ignore you because I know you will fail with this prediction...



Well pack it up guys, cause the Wii U is doing something unheard of, it's selling better in the holidays than it did during the rest of the year.

You have failed and failed to understand my point, continue to fail as you fail again and again in endless fails you have.

Also putting my point out of context shows that you don't have credibility, my point is just to make it clear to you since it seems you can comprehend it is that when looking at how it performed most of 2013 that it is amazing that it could perform those numbers it got in December with some weeks almost matching of those at launch...

Of course it will sell more in holidays and of course you will stretch my point out of context or wrongly comprehend the context/point of it as it seems that you lack something in your head, some specific type of cells.

My point is that Wii U exceeded expectactions of many with its performance in holidays of 2013 since most people expect it to have similar sales as rest of the year... That is really my point and you can twist it, flop it and that yet you know my point and you can try to put it out of context which will further prove that you don't have credibility...

If you can't understand my point then ask me to clarifiy it a bit more...