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Forums - General - Is the evolution story really scientific?

padib said:
ICStats said:
The point was that we don't expect anyone to believe that the picture was not made by a painter. When we see a picture, we know there's a painter. We know it's created by a natural being and not a wizard.

A picture is too complex to create randomly in one step, just like our DNA with what they say has over 3 Gigabits of data, could not be created in one go randomly. The odds are beyond astronomical. And that's not what evolution implies. Evolution implies that many many small incremental changes which are "directed" by selection, can add up to very complex systems over time.

I understand that and it is hocus pocus. Again, if I see a painting, I won't assume it was the product of random brush strokes over time.... which would probably produce some kind of brown smear.

Which idea is hocus pocus?

You see a painting - you won't assume it was made randomly, you won't assume it was made by a wizard, because common sense tells you an intelligent painter made it.  Good.

When you see a human - your common sense tells you that a mystical being made it.  What?

Don't say one idea is hocus pocus when you believe in the hocus pocus answer.



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padib said:

I had this debate with someone on vgchartz, and provided a source to the math that calculated the odds of life as we know it on earth generated at random. The bottom line was that multi-verses was the explanation to it, or that even if it's 1 chance in infinity, it's still 1 chance. And we both know that takes more faith than believing in God.

Pretty sure 1 chance in infinity isn't a real likelihood. It's 1 chance in X instances, where X is a real number. But when you have potentially infinite instances, then that 1 chance would be extremely bigger.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "it's still 1 chance. And we both know that takes more faith than believing in God." Actually, we both don't know that. If the odds were really 1 chance in X instances, and we could show that there are more than X possible instances in existence, then our existence wouldn't really be that unlikely.



padib said:
Licence said:

God is, by definition, a supernatural entity. Science is, by definition, the study of nature. Hence any theory that involves God is, by definition, not scientific.

This is somethingt that many people seems to struggle with. Once you put God i to any mix, science has to leave the room.

If you want to put God into a scientific theory as the ID crowd loves to do, then you must redefine God as a natural entity. And then you must admit that God has natural origins, and must make an attempt to explain those origins via natural means. Since theists resist such a "nature-based" property of God, all attempts to put God into a scientific theory is incoherent.

That's not it at all. The Intelligent Design community are simply not satisfied with an explanation to what they see as high intelligence by means of non-intelligent processes. They might not even be believers in God...

To disregard the severe challenges to evolution is also non-scientific, so I would prefer go the way of looking into a framework that considers divinity in order to understand the past, rather than shun it, because odds are infinitely higher that the route that considers divinity will be more accurate.


You can question all you want but once you bring divinity into it you are no longer doing science.



padib said:

1. I didn't say 1 chance in infinity. I said 1 chance in infinity for all suits and purposes, basically a number that will make your mind explode. So, the best explanation I was given was multiverses, or that: even if it's just 1 chance in a bazillion, it's still 1 chance.

2. That's what takes the most faith than any explanation that involves God, because that one at least makes sense with the world we live in, that anything which exhudes intent comes from an intelligent agent.

3. Not only that, but it solves the question of "where did the laws that govern our universe originate"?


1. Similarly, the number of Earthlike planets in our galaxy multiplied by the number of galaxies in the observable universe, added to the potential number of galaxies in the unobservable universies, added to all the time we can't observe, added to the potential other galaxies would likely make your head explode as well.

The thing is, you literally cannot put a number on the possible number of universes that do exist and have existed and may exist in the future. 

If the odds are 1 chance in 1 bazillion, and we can show that there have been much more than 1 bazillion opportunities, then nothing is unlikely about there being at least 1 chance to come into fruition. 

2. The word we live in does not imply that intelligent things come from intelligent agents. The only thing you've been able to show with your designer examples is that man-made objects are created from man. But that proves nothing. In order to deviate from that very limited scope, you have to assume other objects were created by the "creator", but that would be circular logic.

3. There need not be an origin for them if they exist outside our universe



It would be interesting to see your estimates and probabilities.

It's good to keep in mind that much of evolution took place in simpler life forms with much shorter lifetimes than humans.

Example:
5*10^30 bacteria on Earth
Bacteria can multiply every 20 minutes.
2*10^15 minutes in life of Earth
up to 10^14 generations of bacteria
up to 10^44 bacteria lifeforms in life of Earth

Human DNA basepairs = 10^9.
So you need to evolve one basepair every 100,000 generations, with 10^30 specimens per generation. That doesn't seem totally impossible.  And for reference 100,000 generations of bacteria is equal to about the age of the world since Christ, but we have observed bacteria mutating to adapt to their environments in lab experiments of observable duration.

And wait, there are 10^22 stars in the visible Universe so imagine you run the same experiment 10^20something times just in case you sometimes get vegetables instead of intelligent life. If it succeeded once, we are that success. If it's twice it's us and some other guys. Etc.



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padib said:
ganoncrotch said:
fps_d0minat0r said:
How is it possible to question evolution?
I dont understand....
And what is the alternative theory?


God did it.

Yes.

Farmageddon said:

No problem, it was fun to try and focus enough to type that.

Language might make this a little tricky, but I'll try to explain my point of view.

Say you find a corpse with a stab wound. You naturally take that to mean the perpetrator had a knive, and that's a sensible deduction.

What is happening here is that you're using the information of the stab wound to deduce what the murder weapon was.

So, because you see the stab wound, you expect the muder weapon to have been a knife.

Now, and this is the crucial point here which words might make a little ambiguous.

What you can say, and do have every practical reason to believe, is this:

1. "the reason I know the guy had a knife is the presence of a stab wound"

But you'd never say

2. "the reason the guy had a knife is the presence of a stab wound"

It's actually clearly the other way around:

3. "the reason there was a stab wound is that the guy had a knife"

As in: there being a stab does allow you to suppose reasonably that the guy had a knife, but the wound itself didn't somehow put a knife on the guy's hands, quite the opposite: the fact that the guy had a knife decided what kind of would the victim would receive.

Now, you might suppose the attacker's intent was specifically to stab the victim. In this case you could say:

4. "the reason the guy had a knife is that he wanted to stab the victim"

In this scenario the goal is to stab and the knife is the instrument. The other possibility, discussed before, being that the attacker just happened to have a knife and thus imparted a stab wound, while he would still have killed our poor victim had he had any other sort of weapon, leaving a diffent kind of wound.

In fact, just going by the evidence we have the attacker might not even had any intention at all of killing the victim. Maybe he was a mugger and things came out the worst way possible. Hell, maybe it was just an accident! We can't really know.

Say we think of all this and recognise 3. and 4. as the viable explanations for the stab wound. Either way we would expect to find aknife. So say we do find a knife nearby, covered on the victim's blood. But we never get to actually track the attacker or get any more evidence. Since we'd expect a knife in both cases, we can then safely say:

5. "the existence of the knife can in no way sway us toward either point 3. or point 4., but is compatible with both, and expected by both"

Now the stab wound is humanity, the other possible wounds are possible life-forms. No wound at all means no life. The knife are the conditions necessary for the emerging of humanity, the other possible weapons those necessary for other forms of life. The attacker is the universe.

So you can reason from the fact that humanity exists in this world that this world should have the necessary conditions for humanity to exist (point 1. above). But that is not the same as saying the world has these conditions so that it can support humanity (point 2. above).

So either humans exist as they are because the world is as it is (point 3. above) or the "universe itself" (including "the universe itself trough a creator") wants humans and that's the reason the world is as it is. That is point 4. above.

We do see humans, so either way we should expect the world to have the necessary conditions for humans to live. What this means is that finding these conditions can't be used to discriminate between either of the possibilities. This, of course, is point 5. above.

So, is it, logically speaking, plausible (as in, not leading to contradictions and impossible to disprove beyond a reasonable doubt using this evidence, not as in "this seems to make more sense to me") that humans are some sort of speacial goal of the universe?

Yes, it is. But not more so than it's plausible, in this same sense of the word, that humans are the way they are just because the world is the way it is.

Both are, in this sense, equally as valid, and neither can be favoured on the basis of this observed evidence (the compatibility between humans and the world).

So, sure, maybe humans are special, but they might just as well not be. Maybe no specific life form is special. Maybe not even life itself is a goal of the universe (see the underlined sentence above). These are all plausible conclusions given the evidence being discussed.

Again, I'm using plausible here in the sense I discribed. It has no bearing in this sense wheter a possibility seems more or less likely to you or me or anyone else. But just as well, because, as seen before, no claim on the likelihood of either one can be derivedfrom this evidence.

In closing, and this was the point I was trying to make, if you say "humans being specail for the universe would be a sign of a creator", then using this evidence (human-world compatibility) to prove there's a creator works if and only if you presupposehumans to be special, since the evidence itself renders this possibility just as plausible as the others.

But if you say "humans being special for the universe would be a sign of a creator" and, at the same time presuppose that "humans are special to the universe" than this amounts to the same as saying: "The creator exists because I presupposed that humans are special".

But if "humans being special for the universe would be a sign of a creator" is true than the last proposition is exactly the same as saying "The creator exists because I presupposed that He does".

I think it's clear why that's a problem. You could obviously presuppose anything (which is plausible, in the sense described) to be true and then you would automatically reach the conclusion that it is thus. This is called a tautology, it is saying "If proposition A is true, then proposition A is true", and it just can't be used to try and prove "propostion A" true, no matter what "proposition A" might be.

So the takeway is this: the evidence we are discussing, in the way of the compatibility between humans and the world, can in no way be used to argue, much less prove, which of these distinct interpretations (humans are/are not special) is right or wrong. What we can take from this evidence is that both interpretations are consistent with it. And that's all.

Now, obviously if you can't use this argument to show that humans must be special, than clearly you can't use it to show that some creator must exist because humans are special.

Hope this makes sense to you. For some reason I like the idea of comparing the universe to a raging murderer.

Another interesting answer. I will be on vacation for the next 7 days so apologies if I don't reply soon.





OooSnap said:

The evolution story goes something like this: life arose from goo and evolved to you by the way of the zoo.

Is there any empirical, observational documentation of an organism population evolving camouflage abilities on the fly like an Indonesian Mimic Octopus or Anole Lizard? Or an organism evolve special clawed feet to walk vertically and upside down on all walls like an ant? Is their documentation of any creature population evolving feathers or a blow hole or gills? How about a fruitfly evolving glands to produce silk or a spineret or bioluminence abilities or anything of that sort?

How about an organism evolving antennas, a blow hole, gills, a shell, eyes, baleen plates, fluke, arms, legs, trunk, claws, ink dispersal abilities etc. ? Just any radical novel feature or ability would suffice.

You see, it takes radical changes to get a cell from goo to all the diversity of life we see today. But I have yet to see any documentation of at least one example of any organisms observed while occuring evolve such novel abilities or features. It seems that it is an assumption it happened but without the empirical evidence to back it up.

And if you didn't know, empirical, observational evidence is part of the scientific method. Thus if there is no empirical, observational evidence then it is not scientific:

" The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. *To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on empirical* and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning."

Rules for the study of natural philosophy", Newton 1999, pp. 794–6, from Book 3, The System of the World

Moreover can the story really be scientifically tested and repeated?

So is the evolution story really scientific?

There is 1 speices of lizard that is right in the middle of a mutation.

Like half of the babies come in eggs  the other half are live births.






padib said:
Scoobes said:

Are cheese, wine and yoghurt also evil? Considering we use microrganisms to make them and they're all evil in origin, they must be right? So the symbolic blood of Christ is evil?

What about the bacteria in our bodies that we need to survive?

By germs I mean diseases, not all microorganisms. ugh

That's just it, it only takes the transfer of a few genes or a few mutations for once "friendly" bacteria which we have a synergistic or neutral relationship with to become disease causing organisms. The opposite is also true with deactivated viral sequences present in our genome either silent or utilised to benefit our body.

These are mechanisms of evolution and can't be attributed to simplistic human concepts of good and evil. They are neither, simply evolving.



padib said:
I'm leaving on vacation tomorrow, so Jay here are some links to the calculation, but I can't find the original one I had. Anyway, read if interested:
http://pleaseconvinceme.com/2012/evidence-for-god-from-probability/
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkyard_tornado

I included thoughts from both sides, but my research ends here because we're driving to boston early tomorrow morning.

Later.

Did you factor into your calculation that current estimates suggest up to 40 billion Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of stars?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/05/science/cosmic-census-finds-billions-of-planets-that-could-be-like-earth.html?_r=0



Do you guys think other more intelligent life forms in the universe read the bible?