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Forums - Nintendo - Do You Think X,Bayonetta 2 & Other First Party Titles For The Wii U Will Have Great Sales Or Suffer From Poor Sales ?

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burninmylight on 15 December 2013

They probably won't have great sales, but I don't care. I'm going to buy them and play the crap out of them.



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fauzman on 15 December 2013
superhippy420 said:
fauzman said:
Ninjahound101 said:
fauzman said:
I find it hard to believe that both these games will make a profit . Bayonetta didnt do well enough to justify a sequel on the ps3/x360. While xenoblade did ok its sales still werent that great. Taking both these to a console with much fewer sales, and I dont really see either doing great. At best I reckon both will be even or only slightly profitable. Still if the nintendo crowd really goes for these games, and we see a huge boost in wii u numbers for the rest of the holiday period (its doing well right now), then these could surprise me.


Xenoblade did fantastic especially for an expirement, it sold out of its stock really quickly and almost hit 1 million units sold

Anything less than 1M is good if the game didnt cost a lot to make, but is still not great. While it may have made a profit I doubt it was a huge one. And considering xeno released on a console with an install base of >70M while X will release on a console with an install base of 6M (or something like this) I dont think it will get the same sort of sales.  


I agree, its why they should wait to launch it until after Smash Bros, because X appeals to that audience much more than the DK / Mario Kart audience.

Umm...I dont get it. Why would an rpg appeal to fans of a fighting game? 



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d21lewis on 16 December 2013

Horrendous sales are pretty much guaranteed but I don't care. The games look great and are amongst my most anticipated in 2014. I may not get another sequel but I take what I can get.



ZabuzaXtreme on 16 December 2013

Both are gonna flop really hard. There no suprise since every games that come out for the wii u have lackluster sales.



Ninjahound101 on 16 December 2013
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:


They do estimates of those but NPD is about 75% accurate so the number i gave could be the right one, though all i did was give an estimate and either way VGC is less than 25K off

I have no idea about Xenoblade NPD figures though

Are you just making this stuff up? NPD is more accurate than that.

Judging by the evidence out there, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m copies.

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

Pachter says 90% so you say 70% seems about right?? Not to mention, you think it would work in Xenoblades favour, it works both ways, it could mean they over estimated sales rather than under.

But alas, I havn't seen any solid evidence other than Japan, so like I said, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m.

It covers 60% and Pachter says they cover 90% so i too the mean minus pachters inaccuracy

I am not even talking about Xenoblade, i was talking about Mario 3D World, what brought Xenoblade into the discussion in the first place?

The game was very popular in Germany, sold out quickly as a gamestop exclusive and did well in Japan so 800K is believable(Just because you mentioned Xenoblade)

Seece don't twist things around 229K for 3D World in USA (Retail + Digital) seems like a fair estimate



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

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Ninjahound101 on 16 December 2013
Purple said:
Ninjahound101 said:

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

You're right that NPD isn't totally accurate but it's the best estimate there is and is used by Nintendo themselves.

Also retail sales of 3D World would have been lower as Nintendo added digital in that ~220k number.

I know i just said that total sales of 230K (Physical and Digital) is possible due to accuracy errors



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

Licence on 16 December 2013
Kawaiix33 said:

CSuper Mario 3D World didn't sell that much as other mario games in its first week and mario game were known for its system seller for nintendo console.

Is that really true? I recall seeing a thread here on VGC lamenting the failure of SMG on the Wii because it only sold 500k first week. Mario 3D land sold about 400k, on a much smaller install base, so its hardly a flop. Nintendo games have a different sales trajectory from MSony platforms, be careful on extrapolating too much on first week sales.

Bayonetta and X won't sell 10's of millions, but I think they will both be popular, similar to ZombiU. 500k-1.5M sounds like a reasonable target for them.



Asriel on 16 December 2013

Would anybody expect great sales from either of these games if they were on a system with a large install base? It's not as if Bayonetta or Xenoblade Chronicles were huge games.

They're niche products. So long as they're high quality, I'm happy. It would be great if they got a wider audience but I don't see that happening.



Kasz216 on 16 December 2013
gigantor21 said:
Kasz216 said:
Mummelmann said:
Bayonetta 2 will probably sell anywhere between 200-400k, X is harder to predict, it appears to have potential for this userbase, I think it could do quite well, or it could the Final Fantasy spin-off of the Wii U era (The Wii's FF games didn't do very well), really hard to say.

As for the usual suspects (Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong) there is no doubt that they will sell well, betting against that is plain stupid.


Would be my guess... and honestly, those are good sales considering the userbase

 

I mean shit.  Vita is a couple million ahead and even with digital sales it doesn't have a 2 million seller.  Without it only has like what, 1-2 million sellers?

 

People need to ratchet down the expectations.

It doesn't have ANY million sellers on the Chartz, and I can't remember Sony or any third parties saying that it does either. This despite it having a bigger install base and a whole extra year on the market. Even if you're generous about the whole "60% digital" argument and give it to every game, that would bump up the million seller count to...what? 3 or 4, tops?

Both the Vita and the WiiU are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to market performance. As an owner of the former, it hurts me, as I know there's no incentive for third parties to do anything with it and Sony has shown little interest in picking up the slack.

Well Uncharted Golden Abyss is at 1.07 on here.

Outside that, definitly.  The only difference is that Nintendo more or less will be forced to do something with it since it's a home console rather then a handheld.  So i wouldn't be shocked for the Wii U to end up with a few tentpole titles above where the vita is at software wise... like the above.  

SMBU is at around 2.55.   2-3 million.  I think that'd be great for a tentpole WIi U game considering just how low console sales are.



Seece on 16 December 2013
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:


They do estimates of those but NPD is about 75% accurate so the number i gave could be the right one, though all i did was give an estimate and either way VGC is less than 25K off

I have no idea about Xenoblade NPD figures though

Are you just making this stuff up? NPD is more accurate than that.

Judging by the evidence out there, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m copies.

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

Pachter says 90% so you say 70% seems about right?? Not to mention, you think it would work in Xenoblades favour, it works both ways, it could mean they over estimated sales rather than under.

But alas, I havn't seen any solid evidence other than Japan, so like I said, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m.

It covers 60% and Pachter says they cover 90% so i too the mean minus pachters inaccuracy

I am not even talking about Xenoblade, i was talking about Mario 3D World, what brought Xenoblade into the discussion in the first place?

The game was very popular in Germany, sold out quickly as a gamestop exclusive and did well in Japan so 800K is believable(Just because you mentioned Xenoblade)

Seece don't twist things around 229K for 3D World in USA (Retail + Digital) seems like a fair estimate

Does it? How about remove 15k so it's 200k? Why are you assuming the inaccuracy is in its favour. Don't do that.