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Forums - Sales Discussion - The official January NPD Thread

Well, they release numbers with 2 weeks delay, I'm not so sure if they update those.



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Stever89 said:
Kasz216 said:
Diomedes1976 said:
The LTD is very easy to get ,a lot of webpages carry it .In my case I took JeuxFrance.com .

You do know NPD adjusts their numbers after they are released right? Which only the paying customers get. Making adding the month to month numbers an effort in futility.


Does NPD release LTD figures, or is the only way to get it by adding the months together (and as you said, wouldn't work if they adjust numbers)?


They don't release LTD to the public. Just to their subscribers.

They also do weekly numbers. Though these numbers have been seen as really inaccurate by at least one company... and don't add up to the end of month totals.

Which themselves can be created. As for the "hundreds of employs" line.

All you need to do something like this... is a bunch of people to enter data into a statistical program like SAS and one or two proffesionals after you get a wokring formula.  After that it just takes a couple guys to make sure there isn't any typos in the data sets and to tweak the formula when it's been found off. (Well if you have competitors.  Someone like NPD can just sit on their formula and do nothing unless they are WAAAAY off.  That's why competition is extremely valuable in a field like this... and likely why NPD doesn't want any.  It would make them have to do a lot more work.

 



@Mike B and others

My point about NPD not having Wal-Mart and Toys R Us data was not to say necessarily that VGChartz was right but that NPD is probably wrong.

Check the above analysis on the LTD shipped numbers and NPD sold numbers for the Wii. Given that you can rarely find a Wii anywhere in the US, it is doubtful that there are 1M units stuffing the supply chain -- which is the only conclusion that can be reached if both numbers are correct.

Both NPD and VGChartz have to use complex formulas to compute how much is sold at stores not included in their sample. It may be that VGC has better algorithms than NPD. That would be especially true if NPD is using formulas from last generation to estimate this one.

In case people have not noticed it, the Wii has a very different customer base than previous consoles. And they sell much more at Wal-Mart and Toys R Us than they do at conventional game stores. (Go to a Wal-Mart and watch the game cases and you will see).

I beleive over time that the NPD numbers will end up being corrected ... even though it may be months before anyone knows it (because it will only show up in the quarterly release).

Mike from Morgantown



      


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Kasz216 said:
Stever89 said:
Kasz216 said:
Diomedes1976 said:
The LTD is very easy to get ,a lot of webpages carry it .In my case I took JeuxFrance.com .

You do know NPD adjusts their numbers after they are released right? Which only the paying customers get. Making adding the month to month numbers an effort in futility.


Does NPD release LTD figures, or is the only way to get it by adding the months together (and as you said, wouldn't work if they adjust numbers)?


They don't release LTD to the public. Just to their subscribers.

They also do weekly numbers. Though these numbers have been seen as really inaccurate by at least one company... and don't add up to the end of month totals.

Which themselves can be created. As for the "hundreds of employs" line.

All you need to do something like this... is a bunch of people to enter data into a statistical program like SAS and one or two proffesionals after you get a wokring formula. After that it just takes a couple guys to make sure there isn't any typos in the data sets and to tweak the formula when it's been found off. (Well if you have competitors. Someone like NPD can just sit on their formula and do nothing unless they are WAAAAY off. That's why competition is extremely valuable in a field like this... and likely why NPD doesn't want any. It would make them have to do a lot more work.

 

You do realize that NPD tracks not just the video games but pretty much every piece of electronics in the US and Canada. This is from Wikipedia:

Covered industries include apparel, appliances, automotive, beauty, consumer electronics, food and beverage, foodservice, footwear, home improvement, housewares, imaging, information technology, movies, music, software, toys, video games and wireless.

 And here's their offices (this is from their website):

The NPD Group

HEADQUARTERS

    The NPD Group, Inc.
    900 West Shore Road
    Port Washington, NY 11050
    +1.516.625.0700

AMERICAS

    Austin
    DisplaySearch
    1301 S. Capital of Texas Highway
    Suite B125
    Austin, TX 78746
    +1.512.459.3126
    Bentonville
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    609 SW 8th Street
    Suite 125
    Bentonville, AR 72712
    +1.479.268.6700
    Cambridge
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    201 Broadway
    Cambridge, MA 02139
    +1.617.577.7111
    Chicago
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    9399 West Higgins Road
    Suite 300
    Rosemont, IL 60018
    +1.847.692.6700
    Chicago
    DisplaySearch
    225 W. Washington St.
    Suite 2200
    Chicago, IL 60606
    +1.312.924.0247
    Greensboro
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    426 Gallimore Dairy Road
    Suite 105
    Greensboro, NC 27409
    +1.336.931.8900
    Houston
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    820 Gessner
    Suite 830
    Houston, TX 77024
    +1.713.464.5409
    Houston
    DisplaySearch
    9720 Cypresswood Drive
    Suite 390
    Houston, TX 77070
    +1.281.807.2681
    Mexico City
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    Molier 13, Office 901-A
    Col. Polanco
    México, D.F. 11560
    México
    +1.52.55.5281.5069
    New York City
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    250 Park Ave. South, 7th Floor
    New York, NY 10003
    +1.888.322.3202
    Reston
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    13461 Sunrise Valley Drive
    Suite 450
    Herndon, VA 20171
    +1.703.376.6200
    San Diego
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    9333 Genesee Avenue, Suite 260
    San Diego, CA 92121
    +1.858.551.0008
    San Jose
    DisplaySearch
    25 Metro Drive
    Suite 234
    San Jose, CA 95110
    +1.408.452.1192
    Toronto
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    1500 Don Mills Road
    Suite 502
    North York, Ontario M3B 3K4
    Canada
    +1.647.723.7700

EUROPE

    London
    The NPD Group Ltd
    Rosemount House
    Rosemount Avenue
    West Byfleet
    Surrey
    KT14 6LB
    United Kingdom
    +44.1932.355580
    Madrid
    The NPD Group, Sucursal en España
    C/Pedro Teixeira 8 - 1st Floor
    Madrid, 28020
    Spain
    +34.91.4.119.445
    Milan
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    Viale Jenner, 53
    20159 Milan, Italy
    +39.02.855006.1
    Nuremberg
    npdgroup deutschland GmbH
    Rathsbergstrasse 17
    90411 Nuremberg - Germany
    +49.911.8918.150
    Paris
    The NPD Group, Inc.

    Tour Franklin - 29ème étage
    100/101 Terrasse Boieldieu
    La Défense 8
    92042 Paris La Défense CEDEX
    +01.41.97.25.00


ASIA

    Beijing
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    B616, NanXinCang Tower
    Jia 22, Dongsishitiao
    DongCheng, Beijing, 100007
    China
    +86.10.6409.6603
    Seoul
    DisplaySearch
    #1111 INSTOPIA Building, 467-23
    Dogok-dong, Gangnam-gu
    Seoul, Korea 135-270
    +82.2.579.1489
    Shanghai
    DisplaySearch
    Room 324, 3F, Building A
    Far East International Plaza
    No. 319 Xian Xia Road
    +86-21-62351744
    Shenzhen
    DisplaySearch
    C-7H
    Yunhai Tiancheng Shijia
    Houhai Rd
    Nanshan District
    Shenzhen, China (518054)
    +86.0755.86172126
    Taipei
    DisplaySearch
    Room 928, 8F, No. 8
    LN360, Sec. 1, Neihu Road
    Taipei, Taiwan, ROC 114
    +886.2.6601.0045
    Tokyo
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    NID Building, 4F
    2-29-12 Honcho
    Nakano Ku, Tokyo 164-0012
    Japan
    +81.3.5350.7684
    Tokyo
    AiOS Gotanda Annex
    1-7-11 Higashi Gotanda
    Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, 141-0022, Japan
    +81-3.3473.3377

AUSTRALIA

    Sydney
    The NPD Group, Inc.
    Level 8
    107 Mount Street
    North Sydney, Australia
    NSW 2060
    +61.2.9900.2810



 Unless they have some super smart computer it would take more that just two professionals to run their company. Maybe their gaming division only, though.

 



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

Stever89 said:
konnichiwa said:
makingmusic476 said:
So is the ps3 already over 10 mil.?


Well it should... The difference between VG and NPD is more than 60k (excluding Canada sales) that makes it the PS3 passing 10 million.


No, the difference between NPD Jan and VGChartz Jan is more than 60k. The difference LTD is only (estimated) 6k, read my post a few spots up. So if we "adjust" to NPD, we have to "adjust" Dec (and probably Nov) down, meaning it'll end up right where it is. Only 6k higher. Which would put it at 10 million. So yes, the PS3 is at/over 10 million now.


You're saying that it's only 6k???? You do know it goes like this 9 (Million placement holder) . (the thousand mark) 8 (The hundred thousand mark) 6 (The ten thousand mark) So NPD is 6 ten thousands more. Which in terms is 60,000. Not 6k



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^So to add to my last post. The difference between NPD LTD is not 6k it IS 60k. So we would NOT need to adjust december and november. I say that number IS from Jan. so EVERYTHING you said is all in void.



Sorry, I really should stop posting at 3am, because I can't think straight. It is 60k.

But that still only puts the PS3 at 10 million even.

Still, it just shows that NPD and VGChartz have similar numbers overall, so nothing really needs to be adjusted. That's the point I was trying to make. And for the ones where the are drastically different, I gave reasons to why VGChartz could be considered more accurate. Of course, this only adds up the NPD monthly sales, and since we don't know if/when they adjust a months sales, it's not completely accurate or fair(the comparison), but overall it just shows that VGChartz is a more reliable source, since it's not only free, but it also has visible evidence of when or if the numbers are ever changed.



I would not call it simular numbers overall..

PS3 that sold out the X360 in the USA is very special news...Almost every freelancer said that PS3 will not outsold X360 a month this year;..And already at the first mnth PS3 outsold X360.

I am wondering how those Freelancers will react on it...Especially on GT.






Has ioi commented on the NDP numbers yet? Been a few days... would be nice to know what he thinks about it



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

He commented on the first page, basically, he's standing his ground, much to the disdain of PS3 fans, and the pleasure of PS3 haters.