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Forums - Sales Discussion - The official January NPD Thread

DMeisterJ said:
He commented on the first page, basically, he's standing his ground, much to the disdain of PS3 fans, and the pleasure of PS3 haters.

 Wow well if that is the case, that ioi disregards official numbers for his own, then wow just wow.  So i guess the whole "Vgchartz fixes their mistakes when numbers are made available" was just a bunch of bs.



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DMeisterJ said:
He commented on the first page, basically, he's standing his ground, much to the disdain of PS3 fans, and the pleasure of PS3 haters.

 That is sad, but I still didn't see his comment. Just checked again and nothing.

 Buy I did notice that the number of VGC's users online dropped from around 1200 to under 700, I think they need to do something about NDP data so that people trust this site again. 

Also, I do not understand why ioi adjusts data based on ChartTrack and other international sources but then refuses to update the data based on NDP... this makes no sense to me, either you use use ALL the data you can to improve your numbers or you use none (except hardware shipments). This makes even less sense when they say that their best data sample is from Europe and not NA. Why not trust NDP? NDP is supposed to have more than 50% of the retail. VGC should not be competing with NDP but working with ALL available data to improve their numbers, this includes perfectly valid NDP retail sales data (as long as they keep releasing it). 

I really hope either ioi or TheSource do something. They clearly failed to predict January's data for USA (when MS is excusing themselves with shortages we can all see that NDP data is definitely right). I'm starting to believe ioi and TheSource are a little biased against the PS3...

 BTW: I'm packing to fly to San Francisco tomorrow, GDC here I go :)



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

Auron said:
DMeisterJ said:
He commented on the first page, basically, he's standing his ground, much to the disdain of PS3 fans, and the pleasure of PS3 haters.

 Wow well if that is the case, that ioi disregards official numbers for his own, then wow just wow.  So i guess the whole "Vgchartz fixes their mistakes when numbers are made available" was just a bunch of bs.


 They used to adjust their data based on NDP not sure why they stopped doing it. It's clear now that their data sample is not as good as NDP's data sample since they failed to predict the PS3 > 360 for a full month. And if that wasn't truth MS wouldn't acknowledge it and blame it on shortages.

I really don't expect VGC data sample to be as good as NDP's data sample, it doesn't need to be that good, but VGC needs to adjust their data whenever the differences are major like last month. Not doing so will make this site less credible since people identify NDP as OFFICIAL data. Even MS, Sony and Nintendo use NDP data as official so why doesn't VGC?



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

He said he commented? I cant find his comment on the situation.



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

@Krik.

Because Ioi has been more accurate than NPD at least a few times in the past by using shipment data, thus he is standing his ground.



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zackblue said:
He said he commented? I cant find his comment on the situation.

 Oh I am not the only one who can't find it :s;






All i know, MANY people TRUST NPD on USA numbers much more, then VG.
In conclusion, these difference in ps3/x360/wii numbers doesn`t work good for VG.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Rath said:
@Krik.

Because Ioi has been more accurate than NPD at least a few times in the past by using shipment data, thus he is standing his ground.

 But this time he is obviously wrong....






ioi beat me to it.

Here is what ioi said. As he has pointed out, others have pointed out, and as I have said, there are multiple reasons for him to not adjust to NPD.

As for him changing data on other numbers for regions like the UK and Germany, those are much smaller markets, and his samples probably aren't as good as they are in the US. You don't ask him to change numbers based off of the Japanese tracking firms, even though sometimes they are off from VGChartz numbers.

@Auron and krik, I think you're being a bit overdramtic. He fixes his numbers when other numbers show him to be way off, and he has reason to believe that they are right. He had reason to believe that NPD was right in December, then found out he was more right. It's been only a few days, it's not like we're going to know if anyone is anywhere near right for a few more weeks. We have to at least wait for some shipment data from Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft before we can say who is more right.

It's also important to remember that NPD probably adjusts their monthly sales months after it comes out, but you never see it. So if it's way off, you'll never know. Yes, Nin/Sony/Micro will know, but they probably don't care, because as someone else pointed out, NPD has no competition in the US, so there's no one else for Nin/Sony/Micro to quote for monthly sales. If VGChartz becomes way popular and they (Nin/Sony/Micro) start using us as a source, that's really bad for NPD, since we're free and NPD is not. That also gives them a slight incentive to adjust there numbers to not look like ours, because as long as they aren't far off what they would normally be, but further from ours, it's impossible for anyone to call them out and say "those aren't right," and at the same time it discredits VGChartz. If we simply adjust our numbers to NPD each month, what's the whole point?



Microsoft admitted to have been last this month due to "shortages(sure >_>)"

Therefore ioi's data must have been mis calculated, since it shows the ps3 last this month. With the 360 2nd to the wii.



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M