You are confusing something being announced with something being revealed.  SS was announced 2009, revealed 2010.

By that metric Zelda U has been announced since january.

Well it is officially confirmed to be in development, right? It has been announced, since we know for a fact that Aonuma is working on it right now. Pinpointing the exact moment it was "announced" is a little odd in this case, but the January direct is the best bet.

We have no clue how far along it is. We only know that it was technically ready to be shown at E3 2013, but to what extent? The last two home console Zelda titles were revealed or teased long before their release (Twilight Princess teaser at E3 2004, 2.5 years before release; Skyward Sword artwork leak at E3 2009, 2.5 years before release). That would make your Holiday 2015 prediction look pretty good. But both of those reveals were 'accidental' in a sense -- Twilight Princess was delayed, and may have been intended for release in 2005; and as I mentioned, the Skyward Sword announcement took place behind closed doors and I don't think that artwork was meant to be shown to the public.

It's not out of the question that the game might have been farther along than that. Maybe what they had ready was more akin to the E3 2010 showing of Skyward Sword. Maybe they're aiming for Holiday 2014. Maybe, maybe, maybe; we have no leads. Personally I don't think Nintendo would reveal a brand new Zelda title fewer than six months before release, but what do I know? They're willing to do this with almost every other franchise they have, including Zelda on handhelds and major 3D Mario titles.

In the last couple weeks I've seen quite a few Nintendo fans expecting Zelda U in 2014 some even going as far as to say that it's pretty much announced for that year until Nintendo says something else, I honestly feel that the chances of this happening are close to zero and I want to explain why now.

First lets look at who makes the Zelda games inside of Nintendo, Software Development Group 3.

They have since 2006 made 7 games, 3 of which are handheld Zeldas, 1 is Links Crossbow Training, 1 is a remake and 2 are fullfledged console Zelda games. The console Zeldas have been 5 years apart and the last one was only 2 years ago, combine that with the fact that this team has just released 2 games in the last 3 months and it becomes highly improbable that a new console Zelda title will be ready before 2015. That assumption is only supported by the rising time of development for HD games, which is something Nintendo reportedly only just finally understood in the first half of 2013.

Now even if we for a second assume that Nintendo could get the game ready in 2014, would it even make sense to release that year? We know that the Wii U is not doing so hot, so it might sound weird to some people that Nintendo should not release all their games as fast as possible, but look at what is coming out for the console in 2014 already: MK, Smash and DK plus a couple third party exclusives. 2014 looks good for the Wii U at least from an exclusive games perspective, so why should they fire all their big guns at once and release Zelda that year as well? Give people Zelda U plus a new 2D Mario and the new IP Nintendo is working on in 2015 and you have 2 great years softwarewise back to back.

So I personally believe that Zelda U will be a holiday 2015 game.

Opinions?