I think it depends on when Smash Bros releases. Right Now we know Donkey Kong is releasing in Feb and Mario Kart in the Spring. Smash is rumored to be released in April/May, if it does release then I expect Zelda for the holidays since games like Bayonetta, X and Yarn Yoshi arent big enough as the major holiday titles. But if Smash Bros is a holiday title than I believe Zelda will release in 2015.

Jan-Wii Fit U (retail version)
Feb-Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
April-Mario Kart 8
June-Bayonetta 2
Aug-Yarn Yoshi
Oct-X
Nov-Super Smash Bros for Wii U

Also the rumored Pokemon fighting game, 3rd Sonic exclusive, Wii Sports Club Retail version and SMTxFire Emblem could be thrown in there

I agree and my argument is defeated.

Skyward sword took that long because of motion plus, wich was implemented when the game was already several years in development.

I don't know why people pretend to ignore this fact and use SS as an example. 3 years is the usual zelda dev time.

Wrong. There has literally not been a single console Zelda that released 3 years after it's predecessor. Here are the Japanese release dates of every past major console Zelda:

LoZ: February 1986

Zelda II: January 1987

LttP: November 1991

OoT: November 1998

MM: April 2000

WW: December 2002

TP: November 2006

SS: November 2011

Average time between two console Zeldas (not that it matters): 3,7 years

less than 3 years then.

Brilliant. Look at the facts and completely ignore them.

I genuinely don't know.

I mean, on the one hand, Iwata and the Zelda team recognise that Skyward Sword's protracted development time wasn't a good thing, which led to Iwata stating that the next home console Zelda should be ready within three years, pointing to 2014 as a possible release time. The last time Nintendo's home console business was under this amount of pressure, Iwata made the decision to push Wind Waker out in time for the year-end holiday season in Japan. Wii u is under far more pressure than any home console Nintendo have ever released. While I don't think it's an existential threat to Nintendo, they're certainly under an unprecedented amount of pressure to turn Wii U around, considering the strain on their resources it took to get 3DS going, the fumbled transition from a market leading, hugely successful generation into this one, and years of missed forecasts and lower than expected profits thanks to foreign exchange losses, price cuts etc. Finally, Aonuma has stated he would have liked to show something of Zelda U at E3 and Comic-con this year, but held off due to Wind Waker HD and ALBW.

To summarise: financial/market pressure on their home console business, protracted Skyward Sword development/relatively low sales figures, not unprecedented for Zelda to be rushed to market by Iwata during tough times, desire to release home console Zelda titles on a faster schedule. These factors point to a 2014 release.

But, Nintendo's manpower has been stretched thin adjusting to the demands of high definition development. Even with larger teams and more studios than a decade ago, Nintendo's expansion has not kept rate with the necessary increases in manpower that high definition development has demanded. Combined with this, Wii U projects were put on hold in order to push 3DS titles to markets sooner to rescue that system, meaning that any development of Zelda U may have been disrupted. ALBW's development was disrupted by the need to push people onto Wii U launch projects, so it's not without question Zelda U would have been disrupted. We've also only just seen the release of Wind Waker HD and a new portable Zelda, further suggesting that development of Zelda Wii U has been disrupted. And, despite Aonuma's comments that he wished to show something of Zelda U this year, Nintendo expressed similar desires in 2009--only to showcase a single piece of concept art from their latest Zelda title. Finally, despite the desire to help Wii U by pumping out big games, rushing Zelda to market to the point that the brand is damaged would be disastrous for Nintendo. They will survive the relative failure of Wii U, and the loss of the Wii brand--but only thanks to high quality software brands like Zelda, that the company can rely on in times of trouble. Rushing Zelda out to reverse or improve the fortunes of Wii U may provide short term benefit at the expense of long term damage to Zelda, and this kind of action is against Iwata and the current management's philosophy of safeguarding the long-term future of Nintendo.

To summarise: demands of HD development stretch manpower, exacerbated by the need to ramp up 3DS software development/Wii U launch title development, recent release of a Zelda remake and new portable title, track record of Zelda delays/being further away from release than desired, Iwata/Nintendo management's responsibility to safeguard Zelda brand in order to protect Nintendo's long term future may over-ride the need to improve Wii U's performance. These factors suggest a post 2014 release date.

I am undecided between these view points...

OOT 1998, two years later comes MM. then another 2/2 and a half year for wind waker. and we know TP was kinda delayed to launch with wii u. we also know skyward sword was an annomaly, with it's 5 year cycle being caused by the motion plus late implementation.

So, about 3 years or less for 3d zeldas.

MM used the same engine as OoT, it's a known fact that content didn't make it into the game so Wind Waker could meet its release date, TP took more than three years to develop simple as that and motion plus wasn't implemented late into SS, it was dropped for 2-3 months and honestly things like that happen during game development, so it's not an anomaly. You can cherry pick as much as you want but it's simply not true that the average Zelda takes three years to develop.

And once again it doesn't even matter what the development time of past Zeldas was, cause the development of HD games is a process that takes longer which is something even Nintendo had to painstakingly realize, why do you think so many games had to be delayed on the Wii U already?

I recall pikmin 3 and wii fit U being delayed, from first party titles. that's hardly many games. dk seems to be a strategic delay, so it doesn't count.

anyway, this is zelda. it was already stated by iwata that it wouldn't take longer than 3 years. + all the news about it being ready for reveal at E3 make a 2014 release the most probable one.