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Forums - Nintendo - Pach Attacks! Best WiiU can hope for is 20M lifetime.

spurgeonnintendoryan on 13 November 2013

I thought that Gaf was down. I am glad that he got this prediction in before this holiday season when we find out just what the wii U can do.
Retailers in America do not seem to be that worried since the Wii U section has gotten bigger in some places. Plus there is still the Wii section and two 3DS sections. Nintendo owns half the gaming space at most retailers! In case anyone cared. So something must be going well.
These new bundles for the wii U have been doing well for a while now. Now the Mario one is in most locations and seem to be doing better than the Zelda bundle.
I think not only was it wanted, but parents know Mario, and when they see it in a bundle form they go for it.

Also the Wii Mini is now out in my area with Mario Kart Wii bundled. I think it is going to be a wild holiday for nintendo, and I did not even mention the 2DS.



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reggin_bolas on 13 November 2013
spurgeonnintendoryan said:
I thought that Gaf was down. I am glad that he got this prediction in before this holiday season when we find out just what the wii U can do.
Retailers in America do not seem to be that worried since the Wii U section has gotten bigger in some places. Plus there is still the Wii section and two 3DS sections. Nintendo owns half the gaming space at most retailers! In case anyone cared. So something must be going well.
These new bundles for the wii U have been doing well for a while now. Now the Mario one is in most locations and seem to be doing better than the Zelda bundle.
I think not only was it wanted, but parents know Mario, and when they see it in a bundle form they go for it.

Also the Wii Mini is now out in my area with Mario Kart Wii bundled. I think it is going to be a wild holiday for nintendo, and I did not even mention the 2DS.


If you haven't noticed, there is a dearth of Wii U and Vita deals for Black Friday. Retailers have lost faith in the Wii U which is (partially) why they aren't pushing them. Expect similar lack of interest/momentum for the holidays. I predict less than 6 million total sold by the end of the year.



spurgeonnintendoryan on 13 November 2013
reggin_bolas said:
spurgeonnintendoryan said:
I thought that Gaf was down. I am glad that he got this prediction in before this holiday season when we find out just what the wii U can do.
Retailers in America do not seem to be that worried since the Wii U section has gotten bigger in some places. Plus there is still the Wii section and two 3DS sections. Nintendo owns half the gaming space at most retailers! In case anyone cared. So something must be going well.
These new bundles for the wii U have been doing well for a while now. Now the Mario one is in most locations and seem to be doing better than the Zelda bundle.
I think not only was it wanted, but parents know Mario, and when they see it in a bundle form they go for it.

Also the Wii Mini is now out in my area with Mario Kart Wii bundled. I think it is going to be a wild holiday for nintendo, and I did not even mention the 2DS.


If you haven't noticed, there is a dearth of Wii U and Vita deals for Black Friday. Retailers have lost faith in the Wii U which is (partially) why they aren't pushing them. Expect similar lack of interest/momentum for the holidays. I predict less than 6 million total sold by the end of the year.

I have not looked at black friday deals. I just heard that there are going to be some cheap tv's at Walmart.

 

But I would not compare the two. Vita has more or less been pushed in a little corner in most places to make room for PSP, PS3, and PS4. Hard to make a big deal about it when it has a 3ft by 3 ft cubicle to deal with. Wii U is also sharing space, but it really does not have that many games yet either. Plus Nintendo just dropped the price of the Wii U and put out a bunch of bundles. Same goes for the Vita and it's price, you can not drop it much more than that. That is the Deal.

Many old Wii U games are already under 39- 19 dollars at many locations. I just bought 3 games under 20 bucks. Ofcourse Nintendo games other than Luigi are still full price.

But like I said, this Christmas will give us a good indicator of what to expect for a while with it. Lot's of new games released, and we have some killer's coming in early 2014. Smash. Kart.



ROBOTECHHEAVEN on 13 November 2013

by mid 2015, the wiiu will be at his 20million lifetime sales, i cant wait to see what this complete dumba$$ will have to say then. :)



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zorg1000 on 14 November 2013
Carl2291 said:
Mr Khan said:
Gamecube level sales are the floor, unless the bottom has fallen out of the home console business altogether. Nintendo was in a stronger position moving into this generation than with the GameCube, and though the PS4 might prosper, it's dominance is nowhere near what the PS2 will have seen. Nintendo will at least get there and beyond, even in the worst case of a long, embarrassingly slow lurch to those levels.

2014's software lineup looks to be a yearlong affair, at least (unlike this year, where a few things drop in Q1 and then the console is forgotten until August), so we're going to see a turnaround.


Eh, I dunno if you can really say that ~22 Million units is the floor. When we look at how things are going for Wii U its drastically behind the Gamecube launches aligned, despite the Gamecube facing huge competition from a then record breaking PS2 hitting its stride along with as you said, the Wii U being in a far stronger position launching after Wii opposed to launching after N64.

Typically, Nintendo releases a new home console every 5-6 Years as we all know, though the Gamecube doing as bad as it did pushed Nintendo to get the Wii out sooner than expected.

NES - 1986
SNES - 1992
N64 - 1997
NGC - 2002
Wii - 2006
Wii U - 2012

We can quite safely say that we will have a new Nintendo console within 5 Years. 2018 at the latest, with 2017 looking the more likely Year and 2016 not out of the question.

With 1 Year out of the way and only 3.85 Million units shifted, without real next-gen competition on the market and a distinct lack of 3rd party support in comparison to anything else on the market things arent exactly looking peachy. Its worth noting too, that the 3.85 Million in a Year sounds better than what it is when you consider that 2.25 Million of that total came in the consoles opening 6 Weeks and the other 1.6 Million came in 44 Weeks.

While Mario Kart, DK and SSB will help out somewhat through 2014 you have to look beyond and between them. What else is releasing to fill in the gaps? DK hits in February, MK hits sometime during or after April and SSB doesnt have a release window other than "2014". Its all fine and dandy releasing a fairly big game every few Months, but if there is nothing inbetween the console will once again look unappealing in the public eye, especially when the competition have games releasing thick and fast.

The Wii U will die an early death simply because support isnt there. Nintendo cant pump out games quick enough to keep the public interested in the machine because they have to support the 3DS at the same time. Things were different with the Wii and DS, as the DS had a healthy string of Western 3rd party support (even if most of it was shovelware) to go along with the JP support (and a distinct lack of smartphone/tablet competition). Right now, the 3DS isnt getting that Western support that the DS thrived upon and its being hit hard by smartphones and tablets.

Nintendo cant support 2 consoles, healthily, at the same time. The 3DS is doing really well because of the Japanese support for the system. The Wii U doesnt have and wont have this luxury. They need the 3rd party support and they simply arent getting it on Wii U. This is what will ensure the Wii U will struggle to surpass the Gamecube. Its not an impossible task and its not a great number to reach, but man is it gonna be a long and painful journey for Nintendo.

Ur dates must be for europe but in America and Japan Gamecube had 5 years so it fit in perfectly with other Nintendo console cycles 



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Rogerioandrade on 14 November 2013

That guy is a complete idiot

First he says that both PS4 and XboxOne will sell more than 90 million each, then he says that the console market is a fading trade. Aren´t these two discrepant affirmations ? If those consoles sell better than the previous generation - we all know that it won´t happen - then the market actually would grow instead of fade.

Man.... I would feel ashamed of those people who still want to hear Pachter crazy ideas.



Rogerioandrade on 14 November 2013

Well.. we all know that the WiiU situation is bad, but I really don´t think it´s just a Nintendo problem. Vita got some boost but it´s not something to be proud of yet.

PS4 and XboxOne, despite some great pre-orders numbers, will surely sell a lot on launch due to its fanbase, but I don´t see them selling well next year, I think both consoles will face problems similar to the ones WiiU and Vita faced and the last generation will continue to sell for at least one year.

Apart from die-hard fans, people are not willing to spend big money on consoles anymore. This market will continue to face difficulties in bringing new consumers in 2014



Lusche on 14 November 2013

well lets hope pachter is right as always.

but he has one point.
If everyone on the forums who defend the wiiu would buy one then he would have already been proven wrong ...

so gtfo and buy one instead of armchair defending it. I bought one and I'm happy with it. You can also own one !



Jumpin on 14 November 2013

He also said the original Wii would sell 9 million in 5 years.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Mr Puggsly on 14 November 2013

Eh, I think it can do considerably more simply because this gen won't end anytime soon. I'm thinking 40 million is achievable.

At some point it'll be $199 with Mario Kart.



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