With poor console sales figures in its first two years.  One in 3 failure rate for hardware. Its main competitors Nintendo and Sony released one year after, one of which (Wii) has already passed the XBox 360 console sales. The best list of video games for 2007 (including Bioshock and Halo 3) , which failed to increase console sales. A mediocre list of exclusive titles for 2008. What does the future hold for Microsoft's XBox 360? 

I currently own an XBox 360 and I am deciding on trading  the XBox 360 in for a Nintendo Wii. Nintendo Wii may not have the graphical edge but least the games are fun to play and are not all FPS (PS3 and XBox 360)

Not at all. Things can turn around quickly for the 360 - and they are winning a (transparent) but important battle - they are *making money*.

The biggest risk to the 360, was MS internally killing it because it kept losing cash.

All MS have to do is:
- announce a revamped 360 (360 slim), which is RRoD proof (if that is possible...).
- announce a few more big games (coming soon)
- announce a GTA4 pack

...and do something about Europe. A new bundle or two wouldn't hurt.

GDC starts in less than a week - and MS may well announce a few big things. Something like Gears of War II + Banjo Kazooie both out this year...

Well, I think we all kinda expect GeoW II, so it's not exactly a big suprise, but Banjo Threeie would be a nice little upper.

Microsoft needs a Halo 3 type blockbuster for 08, and they will be fine. GeoW2 will work fine.

Mass Effect, Oblivion, only complete version of GTAIV, Alan Wake, Fable 2, Banjo Kazooie 3, Infinite Undiscovery, Too Human, Halo 3, the best version of 90% of multi-platform games, Gears of War 2, Perfect Dark 2 and what will be a multitude of soon to be announced exclusives say hello.

Your analysis is entirely wrong in nearly every regard.

#1. The Xbox 360 didn't have poor console sales it's first 2 years. Yes, they are mediocre in some respects, but definately not poor. The Xbox 360, in the same timeframe, has sold 3.5 million more units than it's predicessor, the Xbox. Not only this, but the Xbox 360 is still very expensive, with the "standard" model being $350, whereas the Xbox was no more than $199 at this time.

#2. The Wii has passed the X360 despite being released a year early - but exactly how does that negatively effect the X360? It doesn't. Any system that would of released a year early - such as the PS3, would of still lost to the Wii's sales.

#3. The "best list" of 2007 X360 games did indeed move consoles - did you notice that the X360 beat the Wii out in September, with over 500,000 consoles sold in North America alone? That's a fairly large effect, considering the X360 sold half of that the previous year in Sept.

#4. Year over year, the Xbox 360 is well ahead of every previous year, and has not changed. In Oct-December in 2006, the Xbox 360 sold 3.308 million units. In 2007, the same period, the Xbox 360 sold 4.137 million units. This is despite the 2006 year having an extra week of sales. That extra 800,000 Xbox 360's sold in 2007, during that time, is significant, no?

#5. Even this year thus far, the Xbox 360 is up about 15% - 706,000 units to 599,000 units worldwide from the first week of January, to the most recent full week of reporting.

#6. This "mediocre list of exclusives" is one of the most atrocious jokes you've played thus far. Fable 2 was the 2nd best-selling exclusive IP the Xbox had (and the 2nd best selling non-Halo game the Xbox had). Alan Wake, Ninja Gaiden 2, Halo Wars, and Banjo Kazooie 3 are all very critical titles that will ship this year. Although none are Halo-level of sales, games like Alan Wake, Banjo Kazooie 3, and Ninja Gaiden 2 are very critical to diversifying the Xbox 360 library at the exclusive IP level.

#7. I really am not understanding why you choose to complain about the Xbox 360 being "all FPS" games. I have yet to see your name pop up in the Microsoft Xbox 360 forums here. If you've ever been to that forum, there is litterally no discussion about upcoming FPS games, and the vast majority of games that the X360 owners play here are RPGs, and other non-FPS games. If you dislike the Xbox 360 library, your not looking very hard. It still has the most diverse lineup of games, and the most solid assortment of RPGs, Racers, Action/Adventure games, Horror, Real-Time Strategy, and Simulation.

@ Mr. Stickball

Awesome analysis ...

Mrstickball pretty much killed the thread :) GJ

You're wrong on one point though. X360 does not have best simulation, DS does. Ds has Cute Kitten DS and thereby > all other combined.

I also think you will see increased sales in NA in early 2008 due to another thing - tax returns. I have heard a lot of folks talk about picking up a PS3 when they get their money.

I don't think it is, but it could be the beginning of another underwhelming year saleswise unless they take action pronto.
No matter how one spins it, it would seem all but natural that the 360 will outperform its predecessor, but the way things are moving now it hasn't done a whole lot more in just about the same amount of time.
I think the main difference here will be the 360's lifetime, it will probably be MS' primary console for another 3-4 years, and they'll likely continue software support for the 360 well into their next consoles life to earn money on hardware that by then will cost them next to nothing to produce and also good software sales.
I don't see a sudden leap in 360 sales this year, or in the future, there's been pricecuts, there's been Halo 3 and Gears of War and Forza 2, and now more than ever, there is fierce competition on all lines.
The 360 has an image problem, and has had a hard time shedding its labels and reputation this gen, and I don't see that changing until next gen, where I think MS will surprise us greatly with an entirely different tone of voice and a heavily revised and polished image.
The general consensus is that if you didn't see any appeal in the x-box, you won't like the 360 either. This is, in my opinion, false, but its the tone of the market none the less and Microsoft need to work on this for the next generation, I think this generation is too little too late both for MS and Sony to be honest.

Oyv - I'm reffering to consoles, not handhelds, as the DS has a very strong advantage in nearly every catagory.