Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How bad will selll Mario 3D World

I am going to say over 300,000 here in the states, maybe even past 500,000.



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Mr Khan said:

100k is not great, but not a "giga flop" either. It's quite respectable for a console game of any kind in Japan.

true plus 3D Marios aren't that big in Japan and add the low WiiU user base people (me included) shouldn't be surprised

edit: home console 3D Mario*



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(


100k is not a giga flop for a Mario Game? Come on.



The amount of people making fun of his grammar disappoints me. Not everyone has English as a first language. Telling him about the errors is cool, but making fun is not cool. Unless English is his first language then by all means make fun of him. :p



Lucas-Rio said:
100k is not a giga flop for a Mario Game? Come on.

It is significantly less than Galaxy for Japan, but still not terrible, especially given Wii U's smaller userbase



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Roma said:
Mr Khan said:

100k is not great, but not a "giga flop" either. It's quite respectable for a console game of any kind in Japan.

true plus 3D Marios aren't that big in Japan and add the low WiiU user base people (me included) shouldn't be surprised

No, the sales are dissapointing. This is the direct sequel to SM3DLand. When it launched in Japan it boosted 3DS sales by more than 100% that week. It went from 60k the week before to sell 130 the week Mario 3D Land released. The install base at that time for 3DS was 2,2 mill. 

This is why some people believed it would do much better than it did. Especially since its been much better recieved by the media in comparison to its direct predecessor. 

At the same time, i'm pretty sure it will do far, far better in the Americas. I dont have high hopes for Europe, but i'm sure it will do much better there than Japan. Atleast for Japan i'm hoping for a better baseline than before its release.

It will have decent legs in all territories. 



The catastrophic part really is that Wii U basically has nothing else for the rest of the year in Japan though. *This* was it, Mario 3D World + Taiko + Wii Sports Club + Wii Fit U + Wii Party U are everything Nintendo was banking on this year.

It's going to be a looooooooooong drought now until Mario Kart 8 next April. DKC: TF is unlikely to fare any better than Mario has (another platformer, doesn't even have the benefit of the holiday rush, etc. etc.). It's less about games now, it's more that people simply aren't accepting the philosophy behind this machine ... it's supposed to a sorta-casual machine and a sorta-core machine, and its just not captivating either audience. 

And Nintendo has exhausted Mario in the process. 



Soundwave said:
The catastrophic part really is that Wii U basically has nothing else for the rest of the year in Japan though. *This* was it, Mario 3D World + Taiko + Wii Sports Club + Wii Fit U + Wii Party U are everything Nintendo was banking on this year.

It's going to be a looooooooooong drought now until Mario Kart 8 next April. DKC: TF is unlikely to fare any better than Mario has (another platformer, doesn't even have the benefit of the holiday rush, etc. etc.).

I will say this: There is no doubt Nintendo wanted a release of both Taiko U and SM3DW on the same day to give WiiU a momentum boost in order to increase the baseline. 

There is still Monster Hunter Frontier G and Dragon Quest X version 2 yet to be released, but none are platfom exclusives so i dont expect them to do much. 

Mario Kart 8 is now the only title i expect will give the U a decent boost in Japan but it is, as you say, going to be a looooong wait. Japan has voted for 3DS and its not looking to change anytime soon.



"How bad will selll Mario 3D World"

You mean,

"How well will Super Mario 3D World sell?"



Well, I predicted 500k aligned first week based on system install base and the performance of previous 3D Mario games. So with 100k sold in Japan it needs to do 400k combined between America & Europe. Considering how high it's been ranked on Amazon, GameStop.com, BestBuy.com, & elsewhere, it's looking like it might do quite well in the West. It actually hit #1 on Amazon.com a couple days before launch and is at #13 right now, which is higher than any XBO or PS4 game (Forza 5 is #25, the PS4 port of AC4 is #32). On BestBuy.com it's the sixth highest ranked software title right now (the XBO port of Ghosts is right above it) and second best-selling new release, and at GameStop.com, it's the third highest-ranked console title and highest-ranked eighth-gen title (Forza 5 is at #5 overall & #2 for eighth-gen). So, it very well could end up being one of the top 5 best-selling eighth-gen titles this holiday, and definitely the top-selling exclusive. 500k aligned first week is a definite possibility.

Edited to add:

On Amazon UK, SM3DW is currently ranked #30, while on Amazon France it's at #15, on Amazon Germany it's at #11, on Amazon Italy it's at #25, and on Amazon Canada it's at #16. By comparison, the top-selling non-Nintendo eighth-gen games are the PS4 port of FIFA 14 in all the aforementioned European countries (#19 in the UK, #23 in France, #2 in Germany — PS4 games are tearing up the Amazon charts in Deutschland —, and #14 in Italy) and the PS4 port of COD Ghosts in Canada (ranked #22). So, SM3DW will likely perform comparable to other major eighth-gen games in Europe, and Canada will likely add a healthy amount to North American sales (relative to population size, of course).