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Forums - Sales - Why do u believe PS4/One will outsell Wii U by March 31?

zorg1000 on 21 September 2013
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
JOKA_ said:

Do we know how many units Nontendo themselves is forecasting for the end of the fiscal year?

edit: should have read the thread. 9 million it seens


9m FOR the FY I believe, which they won't hit obviously.

How many do u think they will ship this FY? Im guessing 7m putting them to 10m total.

Well they shipped 160k last Q, this Q should be higher due to the upcoming holidays and expected bump in sales from Price cut, but July, August and the most part of September sales for WiiU have been very low, so I can't expect more than 300k (and that's pushing it).

They basically need to sell 7.5m during the holiday Quater. Which is no going to happen, my bet is they fall short by at least 3 mill.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

This shows that Nintendo only shipped 80k Gamecubes from April 1-June 30 of 2003 but was still able to ship a total of 5.02m for the entire fiscal year. I think 6-7m shipped this fiscal year is possible, especially if they can get Mario Kart out by then.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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VGPolyglot on 21 September 2013

I have no idea how much any of these will sell, it will be interesting to see.



Seece on 21 September 2013
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
JOKA_ said:

Do we know how many units Nontendo themselves is forecasting for the end of the fiscal year?

edit: should have read the thread. 9 million it seens


9m FOR the FY I believe, which they won't hit obviously.

How many do u think they will ship this FY? Im guessing 7m putting them to 10m total.

Well they shipped 160k last Q, this Q should be higher due to the upcoming holidays and expected bump in sales from Price cut, but July, August and the most part of September sales for WiiU have been very low, so I can't expect more than 300k (and that's pushing it).

They basically need to sell 7.5m during the holiday Quater. Which is no going to happen, my bet is they fall short by at least 3 mill.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

This shows that Nintendo only shipped 80k Gamecubes from April 1-June 30 of 2003 but was still able to ship a total of 5.02m for the entire fiscal year. I think 6-7m shipped this fiscal year is possible, especially if they can get Mario Kart out by then.

"With sales sagging and millions of unsold consoles, Nintendo halted GameCube production for the first nine months of 2003 to reduce surplus units.[60] Sales rebounded slightly after a price drop to US$99.99 on September 24, 2003"


An actual significant price cut. But yeah I agree 6 - 7m for the FY is very doable, that's 9.5 - 10.5m end of March. Still higher than what I expect tho, I just don't expect holiday shipments above 4.5m I can't see this thing pushing 1m in Nov or Dec NPD and that's 50% of its WW sales.



 

PigPen on 22 September 2013
PDF said:
PigPen said:
PDF said:
You really believe Sony did not keep up with exclusives?  

Your statement is not about who won, its about being able to produce exclusives and if you look at that last three years your statement looks silly. 


Yes, Sony kept exclusives then.  Sony selling buildings, it's in a very different space now.

Your acting like they don't still have 12 first party studios, and many of those studios have two teams.  Throughout last gen Sony was suffering financially and yet they still delivered fantastic exlcusives.  There is very little basis to believe that they won't deliver again.

And only three count.



Zero999 on 22 September 2013
zorg1000 said:
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:
WagnerPaiva said:
I think both systems will have bigger install bases than the WiiU by march, but, I could be wrong.


Why? Wii U would have to sell only about 1m over the holidays fot that to happen.

even in that case it would be impossible. by march 31, wii u sales will be higher than ps4/xone combined.

Both combined might be pushing it

how, exactly? sony themselves said they expect to SHIP 5M by march 23. even if they meet those expectation, wich is still uncertain, that's like 4.5 M sold. Xone is most definetely selling less than that, being $100 more expensive and not releasing on japan and less markets in general, 3M would be a victory.

so you have 7.5m for ps4/xone combined in a best case scenario. wii u will easily be higher than that by 2013 end, let alone march 23.



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Seece on 22 September 2013
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:
WagnerPaiva said:
I think both systems will have bigger install bases than the WiiU by march, but, I could be wrong.


Why? Wii U would have to sell only about 1m over the holidays fot that to happen.

even in that case it would be impossible. by march 31, wii u sales will be higher than ps4/xone combined.

Both combined might be pushing it

how, exactly? sony themselves said they expect to SHIP 5M by march 23. even if they meet those expectation, wich is still uncertain, that's like 4.5 M sold. Xone is most definetely selling less than that, being $100 more expensive and not releasing on japan and less markets in general, 3M would be a victory.

so you have 7.5m for ps4/xone combined in a best case scenario. wii u will easily be higher than that by 2013 end, let alone march 23.

X1 is shipping in more countries in March so that will give it a boost.

Still, WiiU didn't have an amazing start in Japan. I don't know why you think X1 and PS4 are going to launch worse than WiiU in the west ...



 

Zero999 on 22 September 2013
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

how, exactly? sony themselves said they expect to SHIP 5M by march 23. even if they meet those expectation, wich is still uncertain, that's like 4.5 M sold. Xone is most definetely selling less than that, being $100 more expensive and not releasing on japan and less markets in general, 3M would be a victory.

so you have 7.5m for ps4/xone combined in a best case scenario. wii u will easily be higher than that by 2013 end, let alone march 23.

X1 is shipping in more countries in March so that will give it a boost.

Still, WiiU didn't have an amazing start in Japan. I don't know why you think X1 and PS4 are going to launch worse than WiiU in the west ...

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.



Seece on 22 September 2013
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

how, exactly? sony themselves said they expect to SHIP 5M by march 23. even if they meet those expectation, wich is still uncertain, that's like 4.5 M sold. Xone is most definetely selling less than that, being $100 more expensive and not releasing on japan and less markets in general, 3M would be a victory.

so you have 7.5m for ps4/xone combined in a best case scenario. wii u will easily be higher than that by 2013 end, let alone march 23.

X1 is shipping in more countries in March so that will give it a boost.

Still, WiiU didn't have an amazing start in Japan. I don't know why you think X1 and PS4 are going to launch worse than WiiU in the west ...

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.

MS are manufacturing 7m by the end of their FY (June) they're ore of a wildcard as to whether they'll hit their goal, Sony will tho, they're good at predicting their home console hardware.

Still, both will likely be 4.5m sell through by march so 9m. WiiU may be approaching that by March, it's not selling more than 4m this holiday season so it needs to do about 1.5m in Q1.



 

Zero999 on 22 September 2013
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.

MS are manufacturing 7m by the end of their FY (June) they're ore of a wildcard as to whether they'll hit their goal, Sony will tho, they're good at predicting their home console hardware.

Still, both will likely be 4.5m sell through by march so 9m. WiiU may be approaching that by March, it's not selling more than 4m this holiday season so it needs to do about 1.5m in Q1.

they could be manufacturing 20M, the point here is demand.



nitekrawler1285 on 22 September 2013

I think it's very plausible. Even if the holidays are 66% of Wii U sales that isnt very much. As of now that would be 2-3 million sales in addition to it's paltry 3.5 million sold. 2D Mario cant sell the system so I'm not convinced 3D Mario can Multiplayer or not. WWHD I cant see sell a console. It couldn't sell the Gamecube which was way cheaper and had some decent games at least. DK:TF might help but it doesn't really have the overall library to compliment it that the first had. In addition to a strong holiday lineup the other consoles have strong libraries coming up Q1 of next year. I suppose the Wii U has a better lineup coming next year but we will see how it compares.