Erik, do you have an agenda against SSBB? You seem to be adjusting the "rules" to fit your point. You also make wild assumptions such as handheld sales equating to similar console sales, similar sales from GC to Wii despite the vastly changing install base, similar sales from PS2 to PS3 despite the vastly different install base.
Your logic is incredibly flawed because of your assumptions.
I haven't heard a good reason not to count handheld sales. I don't expect similar sales from GC to Wii or PS2 to PS3; Smash will raise 50% from 6.6M to nearly 10M; Gran Turismo will fall from 15M to about 10M. The point is to show that Brawl isn't as all-important as people make it out to be, but for me personally, I'll buy the game and love it, so I have no agenda there. And as I said, if you think part of my prediction is fluff, hold me to the parts about Galaxy, Fit and MK: Wii beating Brawl.
Most people would agree with you. I'm one of the few who expects a major fall in GTA sales this generation. I expect at least a 25% drop, and more likely a 33% or more drop, because of the loss of the casual audience.
GTA is not a "casual game" (popularity =/= casual), but the lower install base and the loss of "newness" for the franchise will contribute to sharply falling sales. However, sales falling from ~20M combined for SA, could still put the 360 version of GTAIV alone in the same range as Brawl, depending how things play out.
-- Maybe (also DS) and old and don't know its legs
The legs for NSMB, MK DS, AC:WW and Brain Training are absolutely spectacular. All will sell over 1M more copies. Some may sell 3 or 4 million more.
11. Wii Fit 1.28M
-- DOUBTFUL as cost will limit widespread purchase
Wii Fit competes with other fitness equipment and gym memberships. So cost is actually an advantage for it.
-- DOUBTFUL as SSB more popular than Kart
-- DOUBTFUL as SSB more popular than AC
No... They aren't. MK was similarly popular on Gamecube, which had a more "core" audience. On SNES, N64 and DS, MK had much higher sales. AC used to be less popular, by a lot, but AC: WW has broken that trend, selling nearly 5M in Japan alone.
Anyways, SSBB will def. sell more than 10 million. What if the Wii gets an install base of over 100 million! You think the attach ratio will only be 1 in 10??? Last time, it was over 1 in 6 with melee. This time, BRAWL is a sig. improvement and has much more hype.
WHEN Wii sells 100M (and then 150M), it will be because of the games that were different between Gamecube and Wii. So yes, attach rate should plummet, from nearly 1 in 3 on GC to 1 in 15 on Wii when it reaches 150M (for a raw sales increase of 50%). Check out attach rates on the top games on PS and PS2 versus N64, GC and XBox.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
