now you are just trolling. time is irrelevant, it's been 9 months and almost no games. can't analyse the system before 2013 holidays.

User was banned for this post.

yo_john117

I think you need to learn what the word trolling means. 9/10 months it's hardly any different.

Can analyse it whenever I like, as many are doing and are coming up with the obvious conclusion.

All I can say is your expectations are way too high and you're going to end up disappointed. It's not going to suddenly take off at this point.

Obviously its not going to take off to Wii status but I strongly believe it will pass GC/N64 level, id say 40m or so and thats a totally respectable number.

As backwards and misguided Zero is at times, he has a point, yes it has the worst post launch sales ever but it also has the worst post launch line up ever. Pikmin and Lego City are the biggest titles to release this year and a bunch of late ports/multiplats to games on PS360, consoles with over 150m install base and cost $50-100 less with proven libraries.

Mario, DKC, Wii Fit, Wii Party, Mario Kart, Smash bros are all series that sell over 5m consistantly and the console will now be $100-200 cheaper than the competition, come with a game and have free online so PS4/One with a game and online become $200-300 more expensive. I think in the long run both those consoles will pass Wii U but it has a 2-3 year window that it will sell well and be as strong competitor. It doesnt need to sell like Wii or get 1st place to be a success.

That's a fair enough prediction, I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach those numbers and if I had to bet I would say it'll pass GC in the long run, but not 100% certified quite yet.

PS3 had an even dire post launch line up, actually I think it continued for much longer than the WiiU's has, to add to that it never went below 70k in the US despite being $500/$600. WiiU is doing half of that despite being half that price.

I agree that a console doesn't need to be 1st place or sell 80m+ to be a success. If they got to 50 mill and gained good profits then that's good enough IMO.

But the situation still looks bleak, and I don't buy those games are going to do anything meaningful, I think they'll get Nintendo fans on board that haven't jumped in yet (and there are millions left) but in terms of the blue ocean/casuals? I don't buy they will ever be interested unless Nintendo come out with something truly remarkable SF wise, something we can't figure out.

I'm not saying the WiiU is a bad system, but at its core it is its own problem, it's just not appealing to the core (for many obvious reasons, tech, 3rd party, 1st party, online) and it's not appealing to the casuals because A) they've move onto smartphones, B) it's in no way remotely accessible to those that coule easily pick up and play with the Wii) and C) It's not fresh, it's not an IT product.

This has all been said a thousand times over though,

Just wait for price cut and some more games, and you'll see! It will sell like PSV, maybe even more!

lol, I think the WiiU can carve out a market for itself with a decent price cut and continue SW, I think it's going to be a lot more difficult for Vita!

Maybe PSV niche could be gamers that prefer home console  or PC-style games, also on the go. I for one like its ergonomics, it's the only portable I find really comfortable (PSP, although apparently very similar, gave me hand cramps in fast-paced games), but I wouldn't buy it even at the current price, after the first official cut, my smartphone is enough for my current portable gaming needs and tastes and time available for it, and surely I'd like better commands and better games, but not enough to pay the current PSV price for them.

As for Wii U, jokes apart, I can see it slowly taking off and then be fine, but I don't expect a scorching take-off like the one 3DS enjoyed after its bad start. I also expect Ninty to treat it better than Wii towards the end of its life, as weakening Wii's name so much and so early before Wii U launch surely affected it a lot: by Wii U launch, its brand name was severely tarnished, and it wasn't anymore one to invest very much on for 3rd parties.

i have no way to prove this, just my opinion, but i think being an early cheap Blu-Ray player helped PS3 in its first year and i dont remember what its first year line up was like but i dont think it was as weak as Wii U, could be wrong about that tho.

I think the blue ocean crowd will come back but in significantly smaller numbers. Wii Fit sold 20 million on Wii, i think it can do 5 million or more on Wii U. Wii Party sold 8 million on Wii, i think it can do 3 million on Wii U. Wii Sports sold 80 million and Sports Resort sold 30 million, i think the inevitable Wii U version can do 8 million. The casual market has definitely migrated to Smartphones/Tablets in strong numbers but i have a hard time believing they have no interest in consoles anymore. Once the games are out that appeal to them a decent percentage will return, PS4 doesnt have the type of games coming and One is too expensive right now so if they do come back i would have to assume it will be the Wii U as there main target.

One thing about the Gamecube that alot of people seem to ignore is alot of its most popular series went thru extreme changes and not alot of people responded very well. Mario Sunshine had a strong spin off vibe to it and didnt feel like a proper successor to Mario 64 or any of the 2D Marios. Donkey Kong never had a traditional installment, instead getting rythem games that required expensive bongo controllers. Kirby only had a racing game. Star Fox started fighting dinosaurs and by the time a traditional game came out it was too late. Zelda was considered too cartoony. Mario Kart and Smash Bros are the only big series that felt like sequels and Metroid is the only one that benefitted from changing.

One more thing to consider is the console itself was too kiddy looking compared to PS2/Xbox that looked similar to a DVD player and PC respectively. It wasnt a multimedia device back when that was a big deal, now there are so many devices that have multimedia functions and Wii U has some as well. Also it gave up a year and a half lead to the juggernaut PS2 and i dont see any console replicating that success anytime soon.

For a second lets assume Gamecube had Mario Galaxy, NSMB, DKC Returns, Twilight Princess, Return to Dreamland, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Smash Bros and didnt look like a toy and had moderate multimedia functions and didnt give up such a huge lead then i strongly believe it would have sold much better, definitely better than Xbox and probably better than N64.

Wii U is $300 with a game and free online, PS4 is over $500 with a game and a year of online, One is over $600 with a game and a year of online. Within the next year Wii U will have NSMBU, Nintendo Land, Lego City, Wario, Wii Party, Wii Fit, Wind Waker, 3D World, DKC, Sonic, M&S Olympics, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Yoshi, Pikmin, W101, Luigi U, SMTxFE, X, and possibly Zelda and Wii Sports. That will get Nintendo fans, kids, families and remaining casuals on board plus its backwards compatible with Wii games and accesories, has social features like Miiverse and multimedia functions like TVii, Netflix and Hulu. Based off that i see Wii U selling very healthy for the next 3 or so years and being a strong competitor to PS4/One which will be too expensive and not enough incentive for many to upgrade from PS360.

Once the price comes down and 3rd parties shift completely to next gen then i think PS4/One will start to dominate the market which is around the same time Wii U will start falling in sales. It will be similar as this gen where the Nintendo console goes strong for 3 years(not as high numbers tho) but Playstation and Xbox will have much better and sell for well for 6+ years. Wii U will probably peak in 2014 or 2015(i think it will hit $199 this year) then have 1-2 more years of decent sales and PS4/One will bulid momentum for the first 2 years then peak in 2016 when they hit $300 and have tons of next gen exclusives then have another 3-4 years of strong sales.

Lifetime sales

Wii U 40-50m

One 60-70m

PS4 80-100m

Well, this thread went better than I expected it to. Not because it's content is bad and thus the discussion will be bad but I made a similar thread like this early this year and it turned out bad. People were just saying I was dooming the Wii U and trolling and what not. (Look at some of the first few posts. I was certain it was an indicator for how the thread would turn out).

So, I would like to thank you Seece, Zorg and the others who gave meaningful input without trying to turn it against me.

I think you didn't see the "time is irrelevant" part. the point is that you received an explanation twice but kept repeating the "it's been selling bad so far, so it won't sell good ever". we all know the bad sales were due to lack of software, so using them to predict the future wii u sales is beyond wrong.