The Gamecube and N64 were operating under a more hostile environment than the Wii U is. People bought the PS1 and PS2 for their CD/DVD players as well as the PS2 having a near monopoly over 3rd party games. That just won't happen. The PS4 will never be another PS2. It can even be another Wii. The PS2 had GTA, Final Fantasy, and Kingdon Hearts as exclusives. It didn't have to deal with Call of Duty. Those systems failed simply because Sony sold better. They don't have the mojo to do that again. Not with all that the PS4 doesn't offer. I think the Wii U will see that success. It's all in the design. It's mainly up to the marketing team now, but if they do what it looks like they've set themselves up to do, it will be a frighteningly successful holiday for the Wii U.

PS4 will solve the crisis


Now serious: It won't happen, maybe not this year. We don't know how holidays will be for Nintendo, so...

PS4 + Xbone > Wii U is very likely.
PS4 > Wii U is possible but not something you should bet on.
Xbone> Wii U is just not possible.

I've revised my projections for the year down a million after seeing Pikmin 3 numbers. Wii U gets 5-6 million by years end. If it gets only 5 million or a bit below that, it is very possible for the PS4 to outsell it since the device is launching in 32 countries with massive supply. The Xbone on the other hand has a very limited stock and just can't sell that much.

Depends on the hype but you are right it's not likely. 

Sales by Jan 1 2014

Wii U 6-7 million

PS4 2.5-3.5 million

ONE 1.5-2.5 million

I just cant fathom either of these consoles selling twice as much as Wii, the fastest selling console of all time, in the same time frame.

The Wii U hasn't seen Wii level success because there has been nothing to sell to that croud until this holiday. Preorder numbers have never mattered in a console generation. The Sega Dreamcast broke preorder records for it's time. Then it was pulled. While I do think that most PS4 preorders will turn into sales, the same didn't happen for the Vita, and look at it now.

The Wii U has the titles to carry it's momentum. The PS4 simply doesn't. The Wii had killer apps that pushed the Wii forward past it's launch. The PS4 doesn't. What the PS4 doesn't offer the regular consumer is something they care about. Nobody cares about Watch_Dogs or Killzone. No regular person. But they do care about COD and they do care about Mario, and if Nintendo can advertise well like they did with the Wii, they can sell Wii Party U and Wii Fit U. There's no reason to doubt games with potencial legs like that when there's no precident set against them. And the PS4 doesn't have a new multimedia device built in. Something that helped keep the PS3 afloat early on, something that initially propelled the PS1 above the competition, and something that sold the PS2 for many people. I have friends who thought every DVD player was a PS2, I swear. And it doesn't offer GTA eclusively or the now equvilant Call of Duty exclusively, something that sealed the deal for the PS2.

There's literally no reason to beleive that the PS4 will continue to sell well past January.

Yeah... at least one of them will.

Anyone who thinks Wii U is going to have a massive holiday is just deluding themselves. Yes, it will raise sales and will sell more but the stores aren't going to ask for a shit ton if they don't think they will sell. And they wont think they will sell by this years sales. Retailers will most likely be conservative. If sales do pick up to unprecedented levels then Nintendo will just be supply constrained through the holidays because they cant just snap their fingers and produce enough to keep up with demand.

Nintendo didn't expect that much in sales by the Wii or else they would have produce more before launch and they didn't expect it because the Nintendo came off of N64 then GC. The Wii was severly supply constrained and didn't have 1 million in preorders either. Both consoles will sell more than the Wii for the first holiday season.

Yea keep telling yourself that.