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Frogger on 27 August 2013
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the-pi-guy said:
spemanig said:

The Gamecube and N64 were operating under a more hostile environment than the Wii U is. People bought the PS1 and PS2 for their CD/DVD players as well as the PS2 having a near monopoly over 3rd party games. That just won't happen. The PS4 will never be another PS2. It can even be another Wii. The PS2 had GTA, Final Fantasy, and Kingdon Hearts as exclusives. It didn't have to deal with Call of Duty. Those systems failed simply because Sony sold better. They don't have the mojo to do that again. Not with all that the PS4 doesn't offer. I think the Wii U will see that success. It's all in the design. It's mainly up to the marketing team now, but if they do what it looks like they've set themselves up to do, it will be a frighteningly successful holiday for the Wii U.

No, it won't see that success, it might see a great holiday, but it won't see Wii level success.  The thing about the Wii was that everybody bought 1, old people that never bought a video game system before bought a Wii, they are not going to buy a Wii U.  PS4 is seeing frighteningly high levels of success, 1 million+ preorders, most of those are going to turn into sales, the current Wii U sales are trending at about 3.4 million, the Xbox 360 saw about 5.5 million sales and was quickly passed by both the Wii, and eventually passed by the PS3.  
What is all the PS4 doesn't offer?

The Wii U hasn't seen Wii level success because there has been nothing to sell to that croud until this holiday. Preorder numbers have never mattered in a console generation. The Sega Dreamcast broke preorder records for it's time. Then it was pulled. While I do think that most PS4 preorders will turn into sales, the same didn't happen for the Vita, and look at it now.

The Wii U has the titles to carry it's momentum. The PS4 simply doesn't. The Wii had killer apps that pushed the Wii forward past it's launch. The PS4 doesn't. What the PS4 doesn't offer the regular consumer is something they care about. Nobody cares about Watch_Dogs or Killzone. No regular person. But they do care about COD and they do care about Mario, and if Nintendo can advertise well like they did with the Wii, they can sell Wii Party U and Wii Fit U. There's no reason to doubt games with potencial legs like that when there's no precident set against them. And the PS4 doesn't have a new multimedia device built in. Something that helped keep the PS3 afloat early on, something that initially propelled the PS1 above the competition, and something that sold the PS2 for many people. I have friends who thought every DVD player was a PS2, I swear. And it doesn't offer GTA eclusively or the now equvilant Call of Duty exclusively, something that sealed the deal for the PS2.

There's literally no reason to beleive that the PS4 will continue to sell well past January.