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Forums - Sales - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

thismeintiel on 19 August 2013
CGI-Quality said:
cheesecake said:
thismeintiel said:

Because when the PS3 was at its absolute worst AND hadn't even launched in EU, yet, it wasn't performing as poorly as the WII U is.  Then you have the fact that the Wii U is now confirmed to be the cheapest entry price for this gen (by $100), but that still isn't peaking much interest from the gaming masses.  I think what we are going to see in the future, in terms of sales, is another N64/Gamecube for Nintendo, with sales ~30M-40M.  Not God awful, but it surely isn't going to be winning the gen.

yeah, we'll see.

NIntendo made the most profit in the GC era btw

Yeah, and the most profit still doesn't translate to higher marketshare. If memory serves me correctly, they also made the most profit the gen before, which, again, meant very little to units sold.

Plus, when people say this, they always seem to forget that Nintendo sells handhelds, as well.  The vast majority of profit that Nintendo made during the GC era was from the GBA and the first couple of years of DS sales.  It had very little to do with the GC, itself.  In fact, if anything, the GC probably lost them money.  I mean, it makes sense when you see that they launched at $199 to compete with the PS2 and within 6 months had to drop the price to $149.  Then, in less than 2 years from launch, they dropped the price to $99.  At the very best, they probably broke even.  Maybe made a slight profit when you add in SW profits.



 

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Kasz216 on 19 August 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
cheesecake said:
leo-j said:
Zero999 said:

Wii U being nintendo's entry to the current gen on the visual level, and innovation level is what killed it

"killed it" eh? the damn thing hasn't been out for a damn year and you anti-Nintendo people are already saying it's dead. is the PS3 dead too? because that needed 2 damn years for it to pick up.

Things that confused consumers about the Wii U:

1. Tablet

2. Shares less multiplats with the 360 and PS3 whom share the wealth of the last third parties.

3. They can't tell whether it bests the 360 or PS3 in graphics even though its slightly higher.

4. Not enough of the high profile games people expected from launch and not enough third party support even in the current gen.

5. The price was the same or higher than current gen competition.

 

The PS3 pissed off consumers but in numbers it still outsold the Xbox 360's first year on the market. Crazy, eh? This is Sonys lowest selling gen....and nearly 80 million strong in sales. The lowest.

Correct me if i'm wrong... but isn't the Wii U ahead of the PS3 aligned launches wise?  Or did it catch up?

Wii U started ahead actually.



the2real4mafol on 19 August 2013

I don't see it beating Wii U so quickly even if it did come out in October. Could Sony even make that many to overtake Wii U?

But I expect PS4 to sell at least 3.5 million in 2013.

Did the Wii even beat the Xbox 360 out right in 2006? 



Xbox Series, PS5 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch 2 will outsell the PS5 by 2030

Zero999 on 19 August 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
RolStoppable said:
Not going to happen. The PS4 is no Wii, there's really not much to get excited about. If Sony manages to ship 4m this year, they won't be able to sell them, so matching or exceeding the Wii U is completely out of the question.

Theres nothing to get excited about yet Sonys track record says if Microsoft drops the ball (which means they cannot stop sony from capitalizing) this gen they'll reach close to 100 million this gen or above in 7 years time. Sony is the only company that has been able to do it consistently until Microsoft halved their marketshare. The only special thing about the Wii was that it was a gimmick that casuals will most likely never  do again until another hit gimmick comes out. If you care to wager this, I would be so willing. 

okay, MS cut sony marketshare in half, I'm sure those 100M units for wii had no impact on it.



Figgycal on 19 August 2013
Zero999 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
RolStoppable said:
Not going to happen. The PS4 is no Wii, there's really not much to get excited about. If Sony manages to ship 4m this year, they won't be able to sell them, so matching or exceeding the Wii U is completely out of the question.

Theres nothing to get excited about yet Sonys track record says if Microsoft drops the ball (which means they cannot stop sony from capitalizing) this gen they'll reach close to 100 million this gen or above in 7 years time. Sony is the only company that has been able to do it consistently until Microsoft halved their marketshare. The only special thing about the Wii was that it was a gimmick that casuals will most likely never  do again until another hit gimmick comes out. If you care to wager this, I would be so willing. 

okay, MS cut sony marketshare in half, I'm sure those 100M units for wii had no impact on it.

I know you're being sarcastic, but no it really didn't. Lol. I don't know in what world you're living in where the Wii wasn't bought mostly by casual gamers that weren't interested in gaming. It was a fad. Lol everyone I knew and their grandmothers had a Wii. Literally their 80 year old grandmothers - who used to think gaming is unholy. I have family in Haiti where they have electricity about 3 times a week that have Wii's lol- that's how casual it was.

I suppose that Microsoft making the jump from 30 mil consoles with the Xbox 1 to 77 mil this gen was also because of the Wii... lol



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Zero999 on 19 August 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
cheesecake said:
leo-j said:
Zero999 said:

Wii U being nintendo's entry to the current gen on the visual level, and innovation level is what killed it

"killed it" eh? the damn thing hasn't been out for a damn year and you anti-Nintendo people are already saying it's dead. is the PS3 dead too? because that needed 2 damn years for it to pick up.

Things that confused consumers about the Wii U:

1. Tablet

2. Shares less multiplats with the 360 and PS3 whom share the wealth of the last third parties.

3. They can't tell whether it bests the 360 or PS3 in graphics even though its slightly higher.

4. Not enough of the high profile games people expected from launch and not enough third party support even in the current gen.

5. The price was the same or higher than current gen competition.

 

The PS3 pissed off consumers but in numbers it still outsold the Xbox 360's first year on the market. Crazy, eh? This is Sonys lowest selling gen....and nearly 80 million strong in sales. The lowest.

1- there's no tablet

2- it still has most of the big multis that are coming

3- pure lie

4- first part = true, second part = 1/4 true

5- relevance? as far as I know, a new console is suposed to be more expensive than old ones, and wii u is.



Zero999 on 19 August 2013
Figgycal said:
Zero999 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
RolStoppable said:
Not going to happen. The PS4 is no Wii, there's really not much to get excited about. If Sony manages to ship 4m this year, they won't be able to sell them, so matching or exceeding the Wii U is completely out of the question.

Theres nothing to get excited about yet Sonys track record says if Microsoft drops the ball (which means they cannot stop sony from capitalizing) this gen they'll reach close to 100 million this gen or above in 7 years time. Sony is the only company that has been able to do it consistently until Microsoft halved their marketshare. The only special thing about the Wii was that it was a gimmick that casuals will most likely never  do again until another hit gimmick comes out. If you care to wager this, I would be so willing. 

okay, MS cut sony marketshare in half, I'm sure those 100M units for wii had no impact on it.

I know you're being sarcastic, but no it really didn't. Lol. I don't know in what world you're living in where the Wii wasn't bought mostly by casual gamers that weren't interested in gaming. It was a fad. Lol everyone I knew and their grandmothers had a Wii. Literally their 80 year old grandmothers - who used to think gaming is unholy. I have family in Haiti where they have electricity about 3 times a week that have Wii's lol- that's how casual it was.

I suppose that Microsoft making the jump from 30 mil consoles with the Xbox 1 to 77 mil this gen was also because of the Wii... lol

Sure, ps360 sales are ps2's 150M in falf for each, even though some good 40M of those sales were in emerging markets. and 80% of wii sales were from non gamers, okay.

your arrogance makes me laugh. the difference between wii and ps360 audiences is that ps360 is played generally by kids and teens while wii is played by kids, teens, adults and elderly alike. and by the way, the people you call "non-gamers", if they bought a video game to play it, then they're gamers.



zhao3gold on 19 August 2013

well, I agree with this although I am a Xbox fan. MS fucked up, so no reason for PS4 not being #1.



Figgycal on 19 August 2013
Zero999 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Things that confused consumers about the Wii U:

1. Tablet

2. Shares less multiplats with the 360 and PS3 whom share the wealth of the last third parties.

3. They can't tell whether it bests the 360 or PS3 in graphics even though its slightly higher.

4. Not enough of the high profile games people expected from launch and not enough third party support even in the current gen.

5. The price was the same or higher than current gen competition.

 

The PS3 pissed off consumers but in numbers it still outsold the Xbox 360's first year on the market. Crazy, eh? This is Sonys lowest selling gen....and nearly 80 million strong in sales. The lowest.

1- there's no tablet

2- it still has most of the big multis that are coming

3- pure lie

4- first part = true, second part = 1/4 true

5- relevance? as far as I know, a new console is suposed to be more expensive than old ones, and wii u is.

He said: "things that confused consumers about the wii U" not "facts".

Many people still don't know that the Wii U is the followup to the Wii - from their reveal it looked like a tablet add-on and the commercials I've seen haen't done a good job at showing the consumer otherwise. Plus it doesn't help that the system looks like a Wii either. A lot of sales of the Wii came from the casual market who don't follow gaming news - calling it the Wii 2 would've been the better way to go.

It does not have the biggest multiplats coming- not by a long shot. It's missing every EA game this year (including Battlefield 4, FIFA, etc), GTA 5, and a bunch of Ubisoft next gen titles.

It certainly won't best the PS4 and Xbox One in which it will be in direct competition with. Not that graphics really matter when it comes to gaming.

Again - it's missing a lot of the big 3rd party games and the ones it has already don't sell all that well, which means we're less likely to see more support.

Being that the Wii U was released ahead of the other next gen consoles and it can't even compete with them - I doubt that it will be able to compete with the PS4 and Xbox One when it will have even more competition.



Zero999 on 19 August 2013

Another thing people keep forgeting is that ps4 isn't much atractive now. the only thing it has going for it is launch hype (a hype overestimated by many). So it's not about how many ps4's sony can manufacture untill launch, it's about how many people are willing to pay nearly $500 for a videogame without many games, most of wich are available on current platforms. in other words, there could be 100M ps4's available this year and it would still sell about 3M tops if released in mid october.