Now that premil and Famitsu data is in... how are your bets looking?

kirby007

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kirby007 on 07 February 2008

this time i just wanted too see how it went, bets are pretty far off.

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supermario128 on 07 February 2008

I think I'll still make about 100 off of it if not more.

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Seneque on 07 February 2008

I was completely off on SSBB, but my bet was pretty small on it (only 20vg$ for a total bet of 805vg$), so that's fine.
On the opposite, I was pretty much spot on on DMC4 (XBOX 360), M&S OG (DS), MP (DS), MHF2 (PSP) and Wii hardware, where my bets were quite high (40-50 vg$).
So, in the end, I should at least recover my money, and at best, make a profit of 150-200 vg$.

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Gab on 07 February 2008

I hope the store used for the preliminary data was sold out of WiiFit, since I bet 300 vg$ on 110k for that. I would be really surprised if I didn't atleast break even on WiiFit. Either I didn't read the rules carefully enough, or it seems really hard to loose money on this game. Or maybe I have spoken too soon...
I bet 300 vg$ on Brawl at 600k so I should make a profit there as well. Was quite far of on DMC4 ps3 though (120k).

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brute on 07 February 2008

not to good because i only predicted wii fit and i left the others at 0

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Devilstation on 07 February 2008

@thanny. I dont get you prediction as 100% off. From what i have read about the rules of betting, IOI would use a formula similar to below.

2(1-(√((PREDICTION-ACTUAL)/ACTUAL)²)).BET

The √ and ² would get rid of the negative numbers (if there are any) depending on whether you over estimate or underestimate.

This would give you this for your prediction.

2(1-((113,272-73,000)/73,000)).500

=448.33 VG$

So if MC numbers are correct you would get a 52 VG$ loss on that prediction.

If you are more than 100% off the final answer will be negative eg. -23.34 VG$ and so your earnings will be 0 VG$

PLEASE TELL ME IF MY UNDERSTANDING OF THIS IS WRONG