Devilstation on 07 February 2008
@thanny. I dont get you prediction as 100% off. From what i have read about the rules of betting, IOI would use a formula similar to below.
2(1-(√((PREDICTION-ACTUAL)/ACTUAL)²)).BET
The √ and ² would get rid of the negative numbers (if there are any) depending on whether you over estimate or underestimate.
This would give you this for your prediction.
2(1-((113,272-73,000)/73,000)).500
=448.33 VG$
So if MC numbers are correct you would get a 52 VG$ loss on that prediction.
If you are more than 100% off the final answer will be negative eg. -23.34 VG$ and so your earnings will be 0 VG$
PLEASE TELL ME IF MY UNDERSTANDING OF THIS IS WRONG
