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Forums - Sony - PS4 will make $1.2bn each year from PS Plus, analyst estimates

pokoko on 15 August 2013
bigd615 said:

I have to agree with sales. Most people don't just buy an $18 membership and nothing else and if they do can they be counted as PS+ members since they no longer have the membership. Most get it for a year so $50 is the best estimate. Now the actual number most likely is more than 3 million subscribers imo as there were probably a lot of new memberships created in the later part of 2012 (including myself I believe) but that is pretty much just speculation. So while yes the number COULD be as high as 7.77 million, 1 $18 subscription, it probably isn't. It is somewhere between 2.8 and 7.77 million probably on the lower end as many members had more than 1 $18 subscription. Anything beyond that is pure speculation and there is absolutely no reason to get mad at someone for suggesting 3 million as an estimate. They might be wrong, but with the numbers given, it's the best starting point. 2013 should give much clearer numbers.

Hold on a second.  He started the insults and you're telling me I shouldn't get mad?  Uh, yeah.

I KNOW it won't be 7.77M, just as it won't be 2.8M, either.  That was my ENTIRE POINT.  I don't get what you're saying.  I shouldn't point something like that out?  It was wrong of me to attempt to clarify?  



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Zappykins on 15 August 2013

So it this a greedy corporations, smart business decision or something else.

It will be interesting as this may help Microsoft's business. Especially how a few were so outspoken that Sony would NEVER charge for multi player.



 

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nightsurge on 15 August 2013
Shinobi-san said:


Err a few Sony fanboys on the internet are saying PS+ is doing super great...you believe them then get shocked when you see what potentially could be the rght numbers.

How is that common sense?

It seems you are misreading something and that is causing some flawed assumptions on your part. I never once said I believed the fanboys. In fact I implied the opposite. My common sense comments were regarding my belief that the inflated representation by Sony fanboys online was highly inaccurate.  



bigd615 on 15 August 2013

aurelounet said:

 Yes, math doesn't work like that. Now your assumption is not absolutely correct as you don't take into account the increase of subscribers during the year.

So, the 2.5 millions of accounts you are taking for granted in 2012 is an average over 2012 and not the number they really had at the end of the year, wich is the number interresting us.

During the sony conference at E3, they announced that their number of accounts increased by 144%. So if true, that means that the PS+ accounts were 144% more on 01/01/2013 than on 01/01/2012

 

so : 5000000 = 1 X + 2.44 X

x (the number of accounts on 01/01/2012) = 1.45 millions

and 2.44 X (the number of accounts they might have on 01/01/2013) = 3.55 millions

By now, they might have around 5 millions accounts if the increase is the same, or 4 if it's slowind down.

Actually, I don't really care, but I do love mathematics.


Where does the 5,000,000 in your equation come from? I agree with your numbers (except I got 3.64 million), but I did it like this

$140,000,000 = $50 * x + $18 * 244 % * x

giving 1.49 million for the beginning and 3.64 million for the end. I believe we did the same thing, I just got confused for a minute when you used 5,000,000. Thanks for the % increase Sony said. That is a little more useful than pure speculation. And it shows that a 3 million user base estimate isn't that far off.



bobgamer on 15 August 2013
nightsurge said:
Shinobi-san said:


Err a few Sony fanboys on the internet are saying PS+ is doing super great...you believe them then get shocked when you see what potentially could be the rght numbers.

How is that common sense?

It seems you are misreading something and that is causing some flawed assumptions on your part. I never once said I believed the fanboys. In fact I implied the opposite. My common sense comments were regarding my belief that the inflated representation by Sony fanboys online was highly inaccurate.  

Of course, otherwise COD wouldn't do gangbusters, FF wouldn't have any relevance in the world, Persona (5)would sell north of 20mil, PSVita wouldn't have failed, JRPS would be far more popular, and on and on and on... The internet is a very poor choice of representation of anything. Even for XBL since , as we can see, the adoption rate for it is some ~30% while the internet would have you believe almost literally everyone has it (its still a very impressive number).



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Shinobi-san on 15 August 2013
nightsurge said:
Shinobi-san said:


Err a few Sony fanboys on the internet are saying PS+ is doing super great...you believe them then get shocked when you see what potentially could be the rght numbers.

How is that common sense?

It seems you are misreading something and that is causing some flawed assumptions on your part. I never once said I believed the fanboys. In fact I implied the opposite. My common sense comments were regarding my belief that the inflated representation by Sony fanboys online was highly inaccurate.  


If we talking about fanboys then what exactly were you expecting?

You also did not say fanboys...i said that. You said "Sony fans online" this is the part i had an issue with in your initial post. You made it seem as if all Sony fans online were making as if PS+ numbers are doing sooo good. How do you come to that conclusion? IS there a place you go online where you can find out what every sony fan thinks about certain things?

Your initial post would have been more accurate had you said Sony fanboys or something like that. But then I dont see why even post because we already know fanboys spin things the way they want to.



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bigd615 on 15 August 2013
pokoko said:
bigd615 said:

I have to agree with sales. Most people don't just buy an $18 membership and nothing else and if they do can they be counted as PS+ members since they no longer have the membership. Most get it for a year so $50 is the best estimate. Now the actual number most likely is more than 3 million subscribers imo as there were probably a lot of new memberships created in the later part of 2012 (including myself I believe) but that is pretty much just speculation. So while yes the number COULD be as high as 7.77 million, 1 $18 subscription, it probably isn't. It is somewhere between 2.8 and 7.77 million probably on the lower end as many members had more than 1 $18 subscription. Anything beyond that is pure speculation and there is absolutely no reason to get mad at someone for suggesting 3 million as an estimate. They might be wrong, but with the numbers given, it's the best starting point. 2013 should give much clearer numbers.

Hold on a second.  He started the insults and you're telling me I shouldn't get mad?  Uh, yeah.

I KNOW it won't be 7.77M, just as it won't be 2.8M, either.  That was my ENTIRE POINT.  I don't get what you're saying.  I shouldn't point something like that out?  It was wrong of me to attempt to clarify?  

Clarifying is fine. Calling someone "BLOODY STUPID" "obtuse" and cursing at them is pushing the limit imo. While you are definitely correct in the fact that it is more than 2.8M it could've been done more tactfully. But his method of estimating the numbers, while low, is as sound of a concrete number as you can get without more numbers or speculating. 

But as far as him throwing out insults, I've always been the type to mostly ignore them on the Internet when directed at me so maybe I'm not the best judge on that, but throwing out more isn't going to calm the situation and will look poorly on yourself. 



Kasz216 on 15 August 2013
Gehirnkrampf said:
CDiablo said:

I dont think its low seeing that i believe that PS+ is mostly a money losing venture. Ive seen the free games thing as a way to attract people to the platform and they likely lose money from most subscribers. Cant give away multiple newer retail games a month and make money. They loss lead so that people will buy more software/dlc on their system and hope to make it up.


posts like this make me really want sony to release official numbers. i want them to say "we have X subscriptions and we earn Y dollars with that". but in all honesty, i think sony simply tries to hide it. if they loose money, it would be shameful. if they gain huge chunks of money, maybe publishers will yell at it. so yea... maybe they keep silent for a reason.


Well the publishers already know about how much Sony makes off this... more or less.

 

One small developer of titles said what Sony paid them equaled about 10-15% of their games total revenue.  So it probably is a pretty good deal for them.

Though they also stated the discounts might of made them MORE money then what sony paid for free.

 

Really in a system where you just can't have sales all the time like you can on PC it really is probably the best way to get money on your aged products.

 

Personally, I have no doubt Sony makes a profit... which no doubt varies month to month based on the games they release.   Have a blockbuster month every once in a while you MIGHT lose money on to pull in people... but really, i can't see how they'd lose money.

 

What i'm interseted in... is it "per download" or is it "every PS+ subscriber."



aurelounet on 15 August 2013
bigd615 said:

aurelounet said:

 Yes, math doesn't work like that. Now your assumption is not absolutely correct as you don't take into account the increase of subscribers during the year.

So, the 2.5 millions of accounts you are taking for granted in 2012 is an average over 2012 and not the number they really had at the end of the year, wich is the number interresting us.

During the sony conference at E3, they announced that their number of accounts increased by 144%. So if true, that means that the PS+ accounts were 144% more on 01/01/2013 than on 01/01/2012

 

so : 5000000 = 1 X + 2.44 X

x (the number of accounts on 01/01/2012) = 1.45 millions

and 2.44 X (the number of accounts they might have on 01/01/2013) = 3.55 millions

By now, they might have around 5 millions accounts if the increase is the same, or 4 if it's slowind down.

Actually, I don't really care, but I do love mathematics.


Where does the 5,000,000 in your equation come from? I agree with your numbers (except I got 3.64 million), but I did it like this

$140,000,000 = $50 * x + $18 * 244 % * x

giving 1.49 million for the beginning and 3.64 million for the end. I believe we did the same thing, I just got confused for a minute when you used 5,000,000. Thanks for the % increase Sony said. That is a little more useful than pure speculation. And it shows that a 3 million user base estimate isn't that far off.

I used the 2.5 millions subscribers stated earlier by someone.

X being the number of users on 01/01/2012 and (1+144%) X the number of user on 01/01/2013.

While you tried to find an average number of PS+ accounts for the year by dividing the 140,000,000 by 50$ and 18$.

Our avarage for the year beind different, we found some different results (not too different).

Actually, I am having some trouble understanding your equation, what is your X ??



prayformojo on 15 August 2013
sales2099 said:
So for 2012, $140 million divided by $50 = 2 800 000 suscribers

Im surprised the number is that low........it is going to be a tough battle convincing a userbase who is used to playing free online to adopt the Xbox Live model, free games or no free games.

I somehow feel any poster who argues the merits of PS Plus loses credibility from this point....since the majority of PS3 users clearly don't see the merits themselves.


The fact that you ONLY need it to play MP games will ensure people are ok with it. The issue people have with XBL is the fact that unless you have it, your console is practically usueless. It's ridiculous. I've been using the service since it came out (even have the 10th helmet to prove it), but this is my last year as I'm switching to PS4.