Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually 2008 is possible with Production increases, if they get above 2.3 million per month this year |
not with the holiday season
Right now the Wii is rapidly moving towards 50% marketshare without being the platform of choice for third party publishers. At the rate the userbase is growing it could eventually hit critical mass and third party publishers will focus on it; if this happens, 50% marketshare will be the low end of where you would expect the Wii to peform in this generation.
For any matters concernig what I wrote her which is quoted below please coment in this thread.
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=16640&start=0#end
Thanks, I just don't want to bother arts thread, I think it is very interesting, and although I don't see it happaning, with the current sales data it is a very logical thought. I just see to many factors that could possably sway the potential.
Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.
Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010
KBG29 on PSN&XBL
| KBG29 said: Well I have been saying the same thing for the last few days about all of these Wii is unstopable threads and I will give it another go. Now I am not saying that the Wii is doomed and it will never sell another console after X date. In fact based on previous generations Wii has already made it, another Nintendo home console will be made even if the Wii droped to 100k units worldwide starting next week. What I want to get across is that their are a lot of variables still left in this console generation. This is the first time in the history of gaming that we have had consoles that were so very differant, all conected to the internet, all upgradeable via software, and had such huge price differances. Many want to argue that the price of the Wii is a non factor of its success, now I will admit price is not the only thing moving units, but it has to be taken into consideration. When you compare the price differances in this generation to past generations, you find that the price gaps have never ben this tremindus. In the days of the N64 and the PSone it was 199 to 149 for a very long time. In the last generation the PS2 and Xbox were price at 199 while the Gamecube sat at 149. This gen we have seen the 360 at 399 for most of its life, while the PS3 has maintaned around a 499 average price point. IMO the lowest priced 360 right now is the Pro at 349, as it is the lowest priced option to be able to give you the full expeciance right out of the box with no added price,while the 40GB PS3 at 399 is the lowest priced PS3 option as it gives you all of the functionality that you need to do PS3 related tasks without any added cost. Based on what I would view as the fully functional skews Pro and 40 that gives nintendo a 100 dollar price advantage over one competitor, and a 150 dollar price advantage over the other. This is quite a differant story compared to the useal 50 dollar price advantage Nintendo has usally placed them selves in. Another factor to this is that in previous generations, the differance was also at lower prices. Before all of the platforms were at a very acceptable 199 or lower price point, selling at 400 dollars is very hard to do in mass quantites. Moving forwards in this generation all three companies will continue to drop prices, and even if nintendo keeps its current price advantages, to the general public 99 to 199 is a lot easyer to swallow than 249 to 399. Now of course price is not all of what sells consoles, the most important thing in this buisness is the software. Software is a funny word on Video game forums, many believe software is only in one form when it is talked about in a console world, but in reality that is far from the truth. All three of these new generation consoles expand beyond software as just games, weather it be Live on the Xbox, Blu-ray on the PS3, or channels on the Wii each of these are no game software that helps to sway people in the direction of each console. One thing that I think many of the people that surf internet gaming forums need to remember is that casual gamers are what makes up the majority of the consoles sold. These people do not speand hours on end playing games. There are a wide range of casual gamers. Their are gamers that will pick up every title on a Nintendo console if it has the name Mario on it. Their is the FPS casual gamer that plays Halo, and the one that playes only WWII shooters. Their are people that own systems for only a spicific title such as Zelda, MGS, GT, Halo, Medtroid, or WoW. As hard as it is for some to believe these casual gamers, sometimes use their systems for things other than gaming. Believe it or not their are millions of kids and adults alike who own either a PS2 or Xbox as their primary DVD player, because just as the video games are not just about hardcore gamers, DVD players are not all about 19.99 wal-mart players. Sure 19.99 is a great deal, for the 7 year old girl that wants to watch Naked Brothers Band, or Barbie movies it is the way to go. Many parents however, understand that their teenage children may like video games also, the same goes for many 30 to 50 year old men with low salaries. These people see that they can pick up a PS2 today for 129, and they get a DVD player, and there is a huge selection of games between 9.99 and 29.99. It is true that these people exist, the PS2 sells very well dumfounding many analists and hardcore gamers to this day. These are the people that have to be thought about later on down the road, these are the people that could potintally build more steam for the HD consoles. When they pick up their brand new 40in HDTV in 2011 for 349, they are ready to go high def, and there sits a PS3 or Xbox 360 with the ability to play Blu-ray for only 149. Just remember these people. Now as far as Games alone go, even in the more core gamer group the PS3 and 360 have a lot of big hits coming down the tube this year that are going to help get attiontion on their consoles very quickly. Nintendo can not be counted out however. Their is a lot of year left to go, and they can not afford to let the ened of this year go buy without one of their big guns being released. We all know Brawl, Kart, and Fit will hit all regions buy August or September at the latest. This leaves to much of a drout at the end of the year. IMO it is obvious they have somthing ready for that christmas time, they are just to smart not to. So what will it be? Well go down the list, what is left? Starfox could still be coming, or how about Animal crossing? Mabye a Pokemon game i in the works, it really could be anything, and whatever it is I am sure it will be an awsome game. Now even with a possability of multiple hit franchises from Nintendo, unlike on the handheld side were they only face Sony, here they have to face multiple opponents. They still have to deal with major franchises from both companies, and the new stuff that is coming from PC that we have never seen on conoles. With the likes of GTA4, Too Human, FFXIII, GT5, Halo Wars, Splinter Cell Conviction, Little Big Planet, Getaway 3, Fable 2, Killzone 2, Resistances 2, Gears of War 2, Alan Wake, MGS4, and many many more major exclusives on their way to the HD consoles, it is not going to be a smooth ride for Nintendo. In America High Def equals sports in many minds, and their are a lot of MLB The show fans, Madden Fans, NHL fans, NBA fans, and Soccor fans that are still picking up theri yearly fills on the PS2, and Xbox. Of course HD and sports is not set in stone, but it is a very logical direction, and one that I think will pose problems for the Wii. How many of thouse Madden fans will be looking to upgrade for their new Super Bowl HD TV for this year Madden? Then you also have to consider that Nintendo is not the only kid playin the casual side of the fence, Sony has games for the Eye, Singstar, Buzz, Little Big Planet, and PSN while MS is hitting the market quite well with XBLA, Viva Piyata, Scene it, and Banjo Kazooi. These kinds of games will only expand as prices drop and the companies start developing to a broader appeal. The last thing I want to point out is that these are the first consoles ever to all upgrade. In the last generation we got a console and thats was it. The PS2 had a few more things over the Gamecube, and the Xbow had even more over the PS2. This time around is differant. Although all three have this capability two are not so limited. The goal of the all in one box is going to be a reality before the next gen wave comes in, and only to consoles are currenty capable of that. Thanks to comatition Sony and MS will be cramming as much out of these boxes as possable. Both will have IPTV, DVR, HD movies download services, music, and TV services. Both will undoubtably begin at some point in this generation start pushing more and more towards disc and network versions for many games. I believe GT5 will be the first major franchise to make the leap, and once the flood gate is opened it will only get mudier. One thing to note about this is that these features will not work for all regions. In Japan, South Korea, US, and select EU contries it will be a reallity, but many contries will only be reaching current US speeds buy 2013 or later. I hope that I did a better job of looking at the hole generation a little deeper, in a better way this time. I really have no problem with any of the consoles. I own all three and have a very well built PC, but I think it is quite obvious which I perfer. I believe that this generation needs to expand for a long time. Game companies are still a ways away from hitting their stride for this generation, I think EA, Activision, Ubi, and Take Two will not hit their comfort zone until about 2009 or 10. It would be nice to see them really get to pump out some awsome conent for about 2 to tghree years before the next consoles are announced. Based on our current situation I think it is obvious that many people are not ready to move up yet and we would have been just fine with the PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube for at least tell the end of this year. The next transition will be even harder, as many are going to find upgrading harder and harder to justify. I am really looking forward to this gen lasting tell about 2015 to 2017. We have reached a point were we no longer need to be upgrading any faster. It is time to get to really know these systems, and sit back and watch some great adventures unfold. |
As much as I appreciate your taking the time to type that, I want you to know it was far to big for me to bother reading.
the wii has a good chance of hitting 50% in my opinion, even if interest in it does fall a little, I think its biggest rival for the last 12 months has been the 360 and that is now shifting to the PS3, but not in big numbers, PS3 sales will increase, 360 sales will decrease, wii sales will stay constant, if not increase when N increase production numbers.
Big hitters like Wii Fit (in the west), Mario Kart, Smash Bros (in the west again) and a few others are too strong. even though the 360 has some big games on the way this year, they're not going to push hardware sales like wii fit or MK.
Nintendo's deck of card is still unbelievably strong after a year on the market, both its competitors have had multiple price drops and fantastic value bundles with 2 or more free games. When sales start to drop for the wii, they can do a number of things to pep them up again.
| Avinash_Tyagi said: No, Key for Nintendo is getting their production rates up, right now they are still not meeting demand, until we can see the Wii in heavy supply in every store we can never be certain what its max demand is and whether it needs a price cut, nitendo needs to go over 2.5-2.7 million a month production i nthe coming yrar, hopefull they'll start ramping up a little more aggressively every 5 months |
This is really the key.
We'll see what happens in the opening two weeks in April - start of the next fiscal year. We can all see what happened last year (big boost, April sales through the roof) - Nintendo held back consoles for the end of the fiscal year, then dumped them at the start of the next.
There is plenty of software to drive sales as well - in fact, ignoring *heaps* of the big titles coming, these alone should do the selling:
- WiiFit (in US/Europe)
- Brawl (in US/Europe/Japan)
- Mario Kart (everywhere)
- Animal Crossing (Xmas release, at least Japan)
...
The other key is seeing how sales of the 360/PS3 vary once GTA4 hits - this is the real key in the other direction. Sales of both consoles will take a permanent boost - the Q is how much the boost is.
I think if the 50% is going to happen this year - it will have to happen by November at the latest. Once Xmas sales hit, Ninty will dominate - but they won't have the stock to drive 50% of overall sales (unless they pull off some miracle re: stock).
I doubt they will hit 50% this year - may hit something like 47%-49% - then drop back a couple of % over Xmas (maybe back to 45%?) - then take off again start of next year.
(then again, its a little early to predict too much, with too much certainty!)
...
(then again - if the numbers in my sig are hit, they will finish with more than 50% for the year? Definitely possible...)
Gesta Non Verba
Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:
Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099
| KBG29 said: Well I have been saying the same thing for the last few days about all of these Wii is unstopable threads and I will give it another go. Now I am not saying that the Wii is doomed and it will never sell another console after X date. In fact based on previous generations Wii has already made it, another Nintendo home console will be made even if the Wii droped to 100k units worldwide starting next week. What I want to get across is that their are a lot of variables still left in this console generation. This is the first time in the history of gaming that we have had consoles that were so very differant, all conected to the internet, all upgradeable via software, and had such huge price differances. Many want to argue that the price of the Wii is a non factor of its success, now I will admit price is not the only thing moving units, but it has to be taken into consideration. When you compare the price differances in this generation to past generations, you find that the price gaps have never ben this tremindus. In the days of the N64 and the PSone it was 199 to 149 for a very long time. In the last generation the PS2 and Xbox were price at 199 while the Gamecube sat at 149. This gen we have seen the 360 at 399 for most of its life, while the PS3 has maintaned around a 499 average price point. IMO the lowest priced 360 right now is the Pro at 349, as it is the lowest priced option to be able to give you the full expeciance right out of the box with no added price,while the 40GB PS3 at 399 is the lowest priced PS3 option as it gives you all of the functionality that you need to do PS3 related tasks without any added cost. Based on what I would view as the fully functional skews Pro and 40 that gives nintendo a 100 dollar price advantage over one competitor, and a 150 dollar price advantage over the other. This is quite a differant story compared to the useal 50 dollar price advantage Nintendo has usally placed them selves in. Another factor to this is that in previous generations, the differance was also at lower prices. Before all of the platforms were at a very acceptable 199 or lower price point, selling at 400 dollars is very hard to do in mass quantites. Moving forwards in this generation all three companies will continue to drop prices, and even if nintendo keeps its current price advantages, to the general public 99 to 199 is a lot easyer to swallow than 249 to 399. Now of course price is not all of what sells consoles, the most important thing in this buisness is the software. Software is a funny word on Video game forums, many believe software is only in one form when it is talked about in a console world, but in reality that is far from the truth. All three of these new generation consoles expand beyond software as just games, weather it be Live on the Xbox, Blu-ray on the PS3, or channels on the Wii each of these are no game software that helps to sway people in the direction of each console. One thing that I think many of the people that surf internet gaming forums need to remember is that casual gamers are what makes up the majority of the consoles sold. These people do not speand hours on end playing games. There are a wide range of casual gamers. Their are gamers that will pick up every title on a Nintendo console if it has the name Mario on it. Their is the FPS casual gamer that plays Halo, and the one that playes only WWII shooters. Their are people that own systems for only a spicific title such as Zelda, MGS, GT, Halo, Medtroid, or WoW. As hard as it is for some to believe these casual gamers, sometimes use their systems for things other than gaming. Believe it or not their are millions of kids and adults alike who own either a PS2 or Xbox as their primary DVD player, because just as the video games are not just about hardcore gamers, DVD players are not all about 19.99 wal-mart players. Sure 19.99 is a great deal, for the 7 year old girl that wants to watch Naked Brothers Band, or Barbie movies it is the way to go. Many parents however, understand that their teenage children may like video games also, the same goes for many 30 to 50 year old men with low salaries. These people see that they can pick up a PS2 today for 129, and they get a DVD player, and there is a huge selection of games between 9.99 and 29.99. It is true that these people exist, the PS2 sells very well dumfounding many analists and hardcore gamers to this day. These are the people that have to be thought about later on down the road, these are the people that could potintally build more steam for the HD consoles. When they pick up their brand new 40in HDTV in 2011 for 349, they are ready to go high def, and there sits a PS3 or Xbox 360 with the ability to play Blu-ray for only 149. Just remember these people. Now as far as Games alone go, even in the more core gamer group the PS3 and 360 have a lot of big hits coming down the tube this year that are going to help get attiontion on their consoles very quickly. Nintendo can not be counted out however. Their is a lot of year left to go, and they can not afford to let the ened of this year go buy without one of their big guns being released. We all know Brawl, Kart, and Fit will hit all regions buy August or September at the latest. This leaves to much of a drout at the end of the year. IMO it is obvious they have somthing ready for that christmas time, they are just to smart not to. So what will it be? Well go down the list, what is left? Starfox could still be coming, or how about Animal crossing? Mabye a Pokemon game i in the works, it really could be anything, and whatever it is I am sure it will be an awsome game. Now even with a possability of multiple hit franchises from Nintendo, unlike on the handheld side were they only face Sony, here they have to face multiple opponents. They still have to deal with major franchises from both companies, and the new stuff that is coming from PC that we have never seen on conoles. With the likes of GTA4, Too Human, FFXIII, GT5, Halo Wars, Splinter Cell Conviction, Little Big Planet, Getaway 3, Fable 2, Killzone 2, Resistances 2, Gears of War 2, Alan Wake, MGS4, and many many more major exclusives on their way to the HD consoles, it is not going to be a smooth ride for Nintendo. In America High Def equals sports in many minds, and their are a lot of MLB The show fans, Madden Fans, NHL fans, NBA fans, and Soccor fans that are still picking up theri yearly fills on the PS2, and Xbox. Of course HD and sports is not set in stone, but it is a very logical direction, and one that I think will pose problems for the Wii. How many of thouse Madden fans will be looking to upgrade for their new Super Bowl HD TV for this year Madden? Then you also have to consider that Nintendo is not the only kid playin the casual side of the fence, Sony has games for the Eye, Singstar, Buzz, Little Big Planet, and PSN while MS is hitting the market quite well with XBLA, Viva Piyata, Scene it, and Banjo Kazooi. These kinds of games will only expand as prices drop and the companies start developing to a broader appeal. The last thing I want to point out is that these are the first consoles ever to all upgrade. In the last generation we got a console and thats was it. The PS2 had a few more things over the Gamecube, and the Xbow had even more over the PS2. This time around is differant. Although all three have this capability two are not so limited. The goal of the all in one box is going to be a reality before the next gen wave comes in, and only to consoles are currenty capable of that. Thanks to comatition Sony and MS will be cramming as much out of these boxes as possable. Both will have IPTV, DVR, HD movies download services, music, and TV services. Both will undoubtably begin at some point in this generation start pushing more and more towards disc and network versions for many games. I believe GT5 will be the first major franchise to make the leap, and once the flood gate is opened it will only get mudier. One thing to note about this is that these features will not work for all regions. In Japan, South Korea, US, and select EU contries it will be a reallity, but many contries will only be reaching current US speeds buy 2013 or later. I hope that I did a better job of looking at the hole generation a little deeper, in a better way this time. I really have no problem with any of the consoles. I own all three and have a very well built PC, but I think it is quite obvious which I perfer. I believe that this generation needs to expand for a long time. Game companies are still a ways away from hitting their stride for this generation, I think EA, Activision, Ubi, and Take Two will not hit their comfort zone until about 2009 or 10. It would be nice to see them really get to pump out some awsome conent for about 2 to tghree years before the next consoles are announced. Based on our current situation I think it is obvious that many people are not ready to move up yet and we would have been just fine with the PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube for at least tell the end of this year. The next transition will be even harder, as many are going to find upgrading harder and harder to justify. I am really looking forward to this gen lasting tell about 2015 to 2017. We have reached a point were we no longer need to be upgrading any faster. It is time to get to really know these systems, and sit back and watch some great adventures unfold. |
Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.
Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010
KBG29 on PSN&XBL
I'm a Wii fan but I'm not sure it can really get to 50%, but I hope it does.
Welcome back, AoA!!! Good to see you live and kicking! I presume all went well after all eh? :)
My themeforest portfolio:
Really. Wow, the fastest selling gaming console EVER might make it to 50% of the market share... INSANE!
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