So 50% Market Share for Wii really is possible.

[shams]

Avinash_Tyagi said:
No, Key for Nintendo is getting their production rates up, right now they are still not meeting demand, until we can see the Wii in heavy supply in every store we can never be certain what its max demand is and whether it needs a price cut, nitendo needs to go over 2.5-2.7 million a month production i nthe coming yrar, hopefull they'll start ramping up a little more aggressively every 5 months

This is really the key.

We'll see what happens in the opening two weeks in April - start of the next fiscal year. We can all see what happened last year (big boost, April sales through the roof) - Nintendo held back consoles for the end of the fiscal year, then dumped them at the start of the next.

There is plenty of software to drive sales as well - in fact, ignoring *heaps* of the big titles coming, these alone should do the selling:

- WiiFit (in US/Europe)

- Brawl (in US/Europe/Japan)

- Mario Kart (everywhere)

- Animal Crossing (Xmas release, at least Japan)

...

The other key is seeing how sales of the 360/PS3 vary once GTA4 hits - this is the real key in the other direction. Sales of both consoles will take a permanent boost - the Q is how much the boost is.

I think if the 50% is going to happen this year - it will have to happen by November at the latest. Once Xmas sales hit, Ninty will dominate - but they won't have the stock to drive 50% of overall sales (unless they pull off some miracle re: stock).

I doubt they will hit 50% this year - may hit something like 47%-49% - then drop back a couple of % over Xmas (maybe back to 45%?) - then take off again start of next year.

(then again, its a little early to predict too much, with too much certainty!)

...

(then again - if the numbers in my sig are hit, they will finish with more than 50% for the year? Definitely possible...)