OK, that's enough de-railing of the thread. Everyone get back on topic.

Bah, I thought this could turn into a really interesting prediction, nvm then.  I'll have to look elsewhere for the next Johnlucas.

only 20% of people thought it would sell 20 million or less, and this was before their policy change.

the average prediction was 50 million according to this. that seems pretty reasonable to me. im sure if this poll were taken after the policy shift. the average guess would be close to 70 million.

avinash_tyagi is the guy youre talking about.

Man, I miss him. Did you know that Wii Fit was going to outsell the entire GTA series combined?

Uh imho this is pretty big news. XB1 all doom and gloom across the internet, and now this?
Mind = blown.

Oh yeah Avinash had the signature, but johnlucas is the one who was actually initially right about the Wii success and was loved and worshipped for it for quite a while until people learned his success rate wasn't that great.  Still remember his threads about MGSIV never releasing on PS3 or the article we actually allowed him to put up on VGC (still dislike this btw) that talked about how PS3 would be discontinued back in 2009 iirc.  Annoying at the time, but weirdly I look back on it somewhat fondly as being interesting if nothing else.  

I think i read today (cant remember the source) that both the XboxOne and PS4 are having pre-orders ahead of their previous console launches.

So while that's certainly a good sign, after the retail "Wii-u" will sell out/has sold out... I will wait and see what both consoles do after they have launched. There is still a massive recession on, and though i think the initial orders might be ok, I do think both may drop off quite quickly.

I would say that if there are any stock issues for either, or scalpers buying up stock (which seemed to happen a lot on the wii-u), then this could also greatly impact its 3-6 month sales.

I mean this has been said many times since preorders started. Amazon, GameStop, and whoever else does preorders has been saying there have been preorders in record paces since they started. But obviously those 300 people who voted on the poll were the only important ones.

Please be more specific and if you're confident enough, we can make a bet.

OT: This is to be expected. The original expose had a tiny install base compared to the 360 and thanks to the internet, it gained a lot of core fans and fanboys. I expect that core to buy the console at first and then the xbone to struggle, just like the wiiu. Didn't wiiu break pre-order records or something? I fully expect ps4 to do the same. I don't think gamers have been this passionate about consoles so far, so pre-order numbers could end up being terrible indications of success. However, still this is by all means positive news.

never understood that reasoning.... a gaming console like a PS or XB today is a great recession entertainement device....

when I'm short on cash I buy more games than when I'm not.... why???? because with a couple 100 bucks I can have more fun on a longer peridoe of time than when I go out at bars, restaurant or on week end escapes for the same price.....

now lets take a familly of 4.... the value of 2000 bucks will provide console entertainement for several years to the entire familly where it would have merely paid a nice week vacation at the beach.... so once again todays console gaming are IMO way better entertainement investments in a recession than people think.... especially now that anybody younger than 50 years old has been more or less in contact with the gaming revolution.... and plans where you get the console cheap with a subscription fee.....