I can't see the system being less than $399, but that would be quite a decent starting point.
As for why Sony wouldn't want to take a loss on the system, look at their financials, they are nowhere close to the company they were back in 2006, they cannot afford a big loss on this. Something less than $50 is my guess, that way within a year or so they are quite likely to start turning a profit on their hardware.













