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Forums - Sales - My Lifetime sales predictions

zorg1000 on 31 May 2013
Captain_Tom said:
spurgeonryan said:
Captain_Tom said:
So I have been analyzing past sales charts and I feel comfortable making my Life Time sales predictions for the consoles below. Please note that I expect to be less accurate the newer a console is (Maybe stating the obvious). Tell me what you think. Prediction in descending launch date (And therefore accuracy):
PSP:81-86m
Xbox 360: 85-95m
PS3: 90-105m
Wii: 102-105m
3DS: 50-70m
PSV: 20-30m
Wii U: 20-40m
NOTE: I didn't mention the DS because it is over.  Any prediction would be crazy obvious.
[Posted 5/29/13]

The DS is far from over. It will sell in the west for a while longer.

 

I would agree with Vita and Wii U. Not the 3DS though. Probably more like 90-120 million.


But it seems like the 3DS has already peaked after its first price cut only a few months from release.  Personally I think largescale handdheld gaming as seen in the Gameboy and PSP is over.  It will probably live on, but as much smaller levels.  Smartphones have just decimated that segment...

I ageee that smartphones/tablets have stolen some of handheld sales but I think its too early to say 3DS has peaked. In the west we have a big system seller in Animal Crossing coming soon plus a stacked summer line up. In Japan Monster Hunter 4 hasnt released yet and that will def push hardware. Then Pokemon X/Y releasing worldwide in the fall will gaurantee a ton of sales this holiday.

Also 3DS still costs $170-200, a $30-40 price cut+redesign on the original model are possible for next year, also games like Dragon Quest XI, 3D Land 2, Smash Bros are system sellera that could release in 2014.

So basically I dont think 3DS has peaked yet, this year will be higher that last(16-18m) and 2014 slightly higher than this year(18-20m). After that a few years of gradual decline and a successor between 2016-2018.



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Captain_Tom on 31 May 2013

You know what just for fun I will make a next gen prediction:

PS4: 150m
X1: 75m
Wii U: 30m

It will be a 6 year gen insead of 8



happydolphin on 31 May 2013

Nintendo next-gen predictions are unreasonably low.



Michael-5 on 31 May 2013
bananaking21 said:
3ds 50-70 million? bold prediction, bold indeed.

My thoughts exactly.



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TruckOSaurus on 31 May 2013
happydolphin said:
Nintendo next-gen predictions are unreasonably low.

The lower the prediction the bigger the crow they'll get served.



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happydolphin on 31 May 2013
TruckOSaurus said:
happydolphin said:
Nintendo next-gen predictions are unreasonably low.

The lower the prediction the bigger the crow they'll get served.

Gotta remind myself of that and take confidence in the crow.



Captain_Tom on 31 May 2013

My 3DS predictions are based on my belief that the 3DS is going to continue to sell fewer consoles every weak consecutively minus a few spikes. Tablets are killing its market, and soon full Windows 8 8-inch tablets for $300 will arrive.

Kids and Japan are all that the 3DS has left now that we all have far more choices. (I am not insulting those of you that have a 3DS, but this is what I believe is going to continue to become Ninty's MAJOR handheld demographics).